Ukrainian forces continue counterattacking in and around Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian troops face logistical complications and loss of drone coverage, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Kyiv’s units have entered northern Kupiansk, blocked Russian infiltration attempts, and liberated nearby settlements, while Russian sources admit growing difficulties.
Ukrainian troops push forward and cut off Russian movements
ISW says in its 15 December report that Colonel Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Joint Forces Group, noted on 15 December that Ukrainian forces continue clearing operations within Kupiansk and are avoiding urban combat. He reported that Russian forces are using unmanned aerial vehicles to supply a group of around 100 to 200 personnel remaining in the city.
Trehubov implied that UAVs cannot cover all areas and have limited payload capacity, and said drones sometimes drop supplies in ways that expose Russian positions to Ukrainian forces.
A non-commissioned officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kupiansk direction said Ukrainian troops have liberated several settlements and nearby forest areas, and that elements of his brigade are active in northern Kupiansk. He said Russian forces continue infiltration attempts using a gas pipeline, but Ukrainian forces have blocked the pipeline and now keep all possible exit points under fire control.
ISW: Russia’s army can’t sustain multi-pronged offensives due to manpower and equipment strain
Russian bloggers report worsening conditions
ISW reported that Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the deteriorating battlefield situation for Russian forces in Kupiansk. One claimed that Russian troops hold some positions in northern and central parts of the city, while the rest is either a contested “gray zone” or under Ukrainian control.
Another milblogger wrote that conditions in western Kupiansk are “rapidly worsening” and said elements of the 68th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army are “desperately fighting.” He also acknowledged that Ukrainian forces have advanced in Kupiansk and in Myrove, immediately northwest of the city.
According to ISW, the same source admitted that “Russian forces no longer have manpower superiority in the area” and said that Ukrainian interdiction efforts are hindering Russian operations. He added that Ukrainian advances have forced Russian drone operators to retreat across the Oskil River to the east (left) bank.
ISW contradicts Russian claims with geolocated evidence
“Geolocated footage published on December 14 and 15 indicates that Russian forces likely do not hold positions within Petropavlivka (east of Kupiansk), contrary to Russian claims of advances in the area,” ISW stated.
ISW also assessed that the Kremlin is continuing to promote a narrative of Russian gains in and near Kupiansk “for a cognitive warfare effort designed to portray the Ukrainian lines as on the verge of collapse.” According to ISW, “the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kupiansk direction continue to demonstrate that.”
