As Moscow's invasion of Ukraine continues, Russia is escalating its covert operations in Moldova’s Russian-backed enclave of Transnistria, raising fresh concerns about a hybrid threat to Ukraine’s southern defenses, according to Suspilne. Ukrainian intelligence believes the Kremlin aims to force Kyiv to divert military resources away from frontline fighting by stirring unrest and opening a potential secondary front near Odesa.
Kremlin increases military footprint in Transnistria
Sources in Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) told Suspilne that Moscow has urgently activated military activity in the Russian-controlled Transnistrian region of Moldova, bordering Ukraine's southwest. Reservists are being called up into the unrecognized local armed formations, and weapons are being pulled out of storage. The enclave has also launched drone production and opened centers to train drone operators.
Suspilne’s source said the Kremlin is working to strengthen its presence in Transnistria as part of efforts to destabilize Moldova and create pressure on Ukraine’s southern border. The heightened activity increases the risk of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups infiltrating from Transnistria into Ukraine.
Russian agents deployed to sow chaos and disruption
According to HUR, Russia is deploying intelligence operatives to Transnistria with instructions to amplify instability. These agents are tasked with spreading disinformation, staging provocations, and conducting sabotage operations. Ukrainian intelligence officials described the moves as part of a wider hybrid operation linked to the upcoming so-called presidential election in Transnistria, set for 2026.
Suspilne’s source emphasized that the Kremlin’s intensified focus on Transnistria signals the launch of a new asymmetric campaign. This operation seeks to generate chaos in Moldova while pressuring Ukraine to reallocate defensive efforts toward its southwestern borders. The same source said the Kremlin wants to quietly expand its military contingent in Transnistria so that, when the moment suits Moscow, the amassed forces and resources will be ready for military escalation.
