Belarus, together with Russia, is testing the EU through provocations with “meteorological balloons” against Lithuania. Until the response reaches the EU or NATO level, these attacks will continue, says Ukrainian historical expert Yaroslav Chornogor, UkrInform reports.
Belarus sends targets over Lithuania, then offers to "negotiate"
On 9 December, the Lithuanian government declared a state of emergency due to the ongoing threat to national security and the danger to life posed by airborne contraband balloons from Belarus.
At the same time, Belarus, which continues these balloon provocations, has offered to “discuss existing problems at the negotiation table.”
Until the EU treats this threat as a matter for the entire bloc, provocations will continue, explains Chornogor. This is a direct signal to the West of the need for a collective, rather than purely national, response.
Lithuania understands what Ukraine learned from Russia
“Since this does not reach the level of the EU or NATO, I believe the provocations will continue,” the expert said.
He reminded that this crisis has been ongoing since at least October, so Lithuania’s introduction of a state of emergency is justified. Chornogor also noted that, as in Ukraine, Lithuania understands that these Belarusian provocations are a form of hybrid warfare.
In his view, Belarus’s goal is to create tension inside Lithuania and inflict financial and reputational damage by disrupting airports, delaying flights, or preventing arrivals.
The fact that Belarus allows these balloons to be launched while simultaneously expressing readiness to negotiate is a hybrid warfare method, Chornogor explained.
"Officially, Belarus does not launch these balloons, so it appears to be ‘doing nothing wrong,’ while Lithuania responds by closing border crossings or declaring a state of emergency,” he continued.
What are the rules of the game? Sowing panic and inflicting economic losses
Commenting on the similarities between Belarusian and Russian hybrid methods, the expert suggested that “these are not independent actions by Belarus.”
“It’s hard to say whether this is directly ‘Russia’s hand.’ In my subjective opinion, certain tasks to discredit European and EU integration unity are divided between Russia and Belarus,” he added.
In this context, Chornogor suggested there may have been a prior agreement between Putin and Lukashenka: Belarus would create tension on the Polish-Belarusian border through migrants and on the Lithuanian-Belarusian border through meteorological balloons, which disrupt air travel.
“Europeans underestimate the threats from Russia and its satellite Belarus, and whether it is a hybrid or military threat is a secondary question,” the expert concluded.
The events at the Lithuanian border are a reminder that hybrid incidents often serve as a preparatory stage for broader operations.
