- A Ukrainian drone knocked out a Russian armored vehicle in central Pokrovsk
- That's actually bad news for the few Ukrainians troops in the town
- More and more Russian armor is consolidating in Pokrovsk
- When the Russians fully capture the town, they could trap Ukrainian forces in neighboring Myrnohrad
Ukrainian troops are still conducting a few small-scale raids in central Pokrovsk, weeks after the majority of the front-line town came under Russian control. But more and more Russian armored vehicles are rolling into the ruins of the former mining town, pre-war population 60,000.
On or just before Tuesday, a drone from the Ukrainian 68th Jaeger Brigade—which once garrisoned Pokrovsk but has now withdrawn to the fields and villages north of the town—destroyed a Russian BMP fighting vehicle in a shed near the railway that cuts east-to-west across central Pokrovsk.
That BMP occupied a position that, as recently as a month ago, was briefly held by raiders from the Ukrainian 425th Assault Regiment. The regiment is still sending small teams south of the railway. But perhaps not for long as more Russians consolidate in Pokrovsk.
That's an ominous development for the handful of elite Ukrainian units clinging to a few fighting positions on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk—and an equally ominous development for the Ukrainian troops still fighting in neighboring Myrnohrad, pre-war population 46,000.
That's because the Ukrainian positions in Pokrovsk anchor the left side of a narrow corridor, perhaps just 1 km wide, that represents the only relatively safe way out of Myrnohrad, which is currently surrounded on three sides by the Russian Center Group of Forces.
The raiders from the 425th Assault Regiment have slowed the Russian consolidation in Pokrovsk. But outnumbered 5:1 or worse, they surely can't prevent that consolidation.
The Russian Center Group of Forces has many more men and vehicles, and is willing to lose a lot of them to fully capture Pokrovsk. Advancing through Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad positions the Center Group of Forces to begin a long and potentially bloody march on the free cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, 60 km to the northeast.
The situation for Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad is only somewhat less desperate. The forward elements of the Ukrainian 25th Air Assault Brigade and 35th Marine Brigade, which are still in Myrnohrad, will almost certainly have to retreat soon.
Orderly retreat ... or chaos?
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An orderly withdrawal is still possible. But if the Ukrainian forces in northern Pokrovsk can't hold and the corridor between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad collapses, a chaotic withdrawal under withering Russian fire may be the only alternative to surrender.
The foggy weather that's typical of the Ukrainian winter may help cover any Ukrainian retreat. But the same fog grounds and blinds Ukrainian drones, giving Russian vehicle crews a chance to roll into Pokrovsk and seek shelter in some building.
In recent days, drones from the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps and the 155th Mechanized Brigade, which fights under the corps' command, have detected and knocked out at least two Russian tanks on Pokrovsk's southern outskirts. But other vehicles are getting through, including that BMP. And it's unlikely the Ukrainians are finding and hitting all of them.
With each passing day, there are more Russians in Pokrovsk—and they have more tanks and fighting vehicles to lend them heavy firepower. By contrast, there's no evidence the Ukrainian units dug in in northern Pokrovsk, including the 425th Assault Regiment, have much or any armor.
If and when the Russians move to eject the last Ukrainians from Pokrovsk, they could have a serious firepower advantage. That should serve as a warning to the Ukrainians in Myrnohrad: to get out while they can.
