A massive corruption scandal has transformed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a "lame duck" at home, according to Adrian Karatnycky, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, writing for Politico.
The scandal centers on an alleged scheme to extort around $100 million from Ukraine's energy sector. Justice Minister German Galushchenko, Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk, and officials from the state atomic energy agency and State Bureau of Investigation have been implicated.
The most damaging allegations involve Zelenskyy's closest allies. Former business partner Tymur Mindich stands accused of being central to the schemes, which have been dubbed "Mindichgate." Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, described as "highly powerful yet unpopular," faces accusations from adversaries of undermining the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor — the very offices that uncovered the conspiracy.
"While there's no evidence of personal corruption by the president, his style of rule and reliance on governing with the help of a group of pals and cronies has worn thin," Karatnycky writes.
The revelations carry particular weight because Zelenskyy won power promising to root out corruption and replace dishonest officials with "new faces of integrity." According to Politico, his pledges "have now been punctured by the misrule that's being revealed each day in plot twists as riveting as a Netflix crime series."
Public support has collapsed. October polling — conducted before the scandal erupted — showed only one in four Ukrainians wanted Zelenskyy to run for office again after the war. Opposition Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak, who helped expose the corruption, told Politico that unpublished polls now show Zelenskyy losing a further 40% of support, placing his base at around 25%.
If elections were held, polls indicate Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the former armed forces commander whom Zelenskyy dismissed, would "handily" defeat the president.
Sources close to the president and his inner circle speaking anonymously have hinted Zelenskyy may not seek a second term once circumstances permit elections, according to the report. Multiple sources have told Politico that First Lady Olena Zelenska believes her husband should not run for reelection given the extension of his current term and the toll on their family.
Despite wartime discontent reaching its peak, mass protests remain unlikely. Civic activist Serhiy Sternenko, who has millions of social media followers, confirmed to Karatnycky that Ukrainians understand destabilizing protests would be "perilous" amid Russian territorial advances.
"And though Zelenskyy's position as president remains secure given the wartime setting, as a lame-duck president his main aim must be to restore public confidence in the government," Karatnycky writes.
The author recommends Zelenskyy begin consultations with civic leaders, anti-corruption experts and the opposition to create a technocratic government. He should limit his powers to defense, national security and foreign policy while transferring domestic and economic responsibilities to government and parliament, according to the analysis.
"The fact is, if Zelenskyy doesn't act, others may do it for him," Karatnycky warns.
Cracks are appearing in Zelenskyy's parliamentary base. Investigative outlet Ukrainska Pravda reports that David Arakhamia, head of the Servant of the People parliamentary faction, has joined calls for presidential office reform and Yermak's replacement. Powerful legislator Danylo Hetmantsev, who chairs parliament's finance committee, plans to create a new party. Lawmaker Mykyta Poturayev announced an initiative to form a new parliamentary majority including opposition members.
Karatnycky suggests potential cabinet members could include First Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, former US Ambassador and Finance Minister Oksana Markarova, and former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
"While the damage done to Zelenskyy is likely irreversible, the president has a chance to use the current crisis to set Ukraine on a proper path of greater transparency," the analyst writes.
Strong prosecution of those involved in the corruption network would maintain morale and strengthen Ukraine's position as Washington pressures Kyiv to make concessions to Russia, according to the report. The New York Times previously noted that nearly seven years after the last elections, many Ukrainians believe Zelenskyy operates within "a small, closed circle, not bound by rules."
