- Three Ukrainian brigades are nearly surrounded in a pocket around the city of Pokrovsk
- It's too late for an orderly retreat
- Ukrainian commanders continue to prioritize urban defense, but they lack the troops
- Drones are abundant, but they work best over open terrain
Ukrainian troops are dangerously close to being surrounded in the 30-square-kilometer pocket stretching from Pokrovsk east to Myrnohrad. The open end of the pocket, the only escape route for some or all of no fewer than three Ukrainian brigades—the 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 38th Marine Brigade and the 155th Mechanized Brigade—is barely 10 km across.
Commanders have yet to order the garrisons in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad to withdraw north to the next line of Ukrainian defenses.
In any event, it's probably too late for a safe and orderly retreat. Russian drones and artillery can range across the only roads and footpaths out of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. If there's any reason to hope for anything short of a catastrophic withdrawal, it's that the front line in Ukraine isn't really a line anymore—it's a porous zone of contested control.
Maybe all those Ukrainian paratroopers, marines, and mechanized troops can slip out of the pocket the same way Russian troops have been slipping into it—on foot in small groups, at night. But it's risky. And the retreating Ukrainians may leave behind a lot of heavy equipment.
Serhii Sternenko—founder of the Sternenko Fund, which equips Ukrainian forces with drones—surely spoke for many Ukrainians when he voiced his frustration.
Citing chaotic and costly Ukrainian retreats from Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and Sudzha, he asked how yet another Ukrainian force could find itself "in a fire sack."
"Every time, our forces withdrew at the last moment with heavy losses, abandoning property and equipment," Sternenko wrote. "Not everyone could get out. Some remained in their positions forever. This is happening again right now."
How this happened is clear to see. A powerful Russian force with more than 100,000 troops and hundreds of armored vehicles has been marching on Pokrovsk for more than a year since capturing the ruins of Avdiivka, 40 km to the southeast.
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Bloody march
The Ukrainian armed forces bled the Russians for every kilometer they advanced, but the main defensive line was anchored by Pokrovsk itself. That was consistent with Ukraine's urban defense strategy. For nearly four years since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Ukrainian commanders have fortified cities at the expense of the countryside.
That used to make sense. Built-up urban areas can hide and protect infantry fighting on the defensive, helping them repel enemy assaults.
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The problem, in 2025, is that Ukraine is desperately short of trained infantry.
"To put it as bluntly as possible: Ukraine has fallen short by at least 10,000 recruits per month over the past two years," Ukraine Control Map explained.
"We don't lack the will to fight," wrote Ryan O'Leary, the former commander of the now-shuttered Chosen Company, a volunteer unit that fought in Ukraine. "We lack the infantry to hold the ground so we can continue fighting."
Ukraine compensates with a large force of tiny explosive drones. But the drones are most effective on open terrain where there's nowhere for their prey to hide.
They're least effective over cities, where their prey has everywhere to hide. If Russian troops can slip through the many wide gaps in Ukrainian defenses, they can accumulate in small but growing numbers inside a city like Pokrovsk.
There, the "overwhelming number of Russian soldiers and the possibility to hide easily from drones inside cities” make a drone-based urban defense “more difficult,” French analyst Clément Molin explained. The drones can't find or hit all the Russians in their basement hideouts. And there are too few Ukrainian infantry to clear out the Russian infiltrators the old-fashioned way: with direct close combat.
Since arriving at the gates of Pokrovsk and nearby Myrnohrad late last year, the Russians have been slowly but steadily creeping into both cities in small groups. Today, there are around 250 Russian infantry inside Pokrovsk. That might not seem like a lot, but it's enough to create a lodgement for follow-on forces.
Meanwhile, Russian assaults northeast of Myrnohrad and northwest of Pokrovsk have partially closed a pincer around the twin cities, nearly bottling up the Ukrainians in the settlements. "The enemy cut off our logistics," Sternenko pointed out. Aerial resupply via drone is still possible, but drone resupply can't fully replace ground resupply, which is much more efficient.
There may have been an opportunity for Ukrainian troops to safely leave Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But it was weeks ago. And it required Ukrainian commanders to understand that their most abundant forces—small drones—work best over open terrain.
The old urban defense model may be obsolete.
