- The winter weather is bad for drones, good for vehicles
- The helps both sides in the current war—in different ways
- The fighting may evolve as it gets cloudier and colder
- But the infantry are in for an uncomfortable few months
Winter looms in Ukraine. And it's going to change how both sides fight as Russia's wider war on Ukraine grinds into its 44th month.
Expect rainy, overcast skies and deepening cold. That means fewer drones in sky—and more opportunities for vehicles to safely speed along the roads near the porous front line. But it also means even more difficult conditions for troops on the ground.
For the Russians, the imminent decrease in drone operations could prompt commanders to deploy even more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. For the Ukrainians, supply runs to the most vulnerable front-line city—Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast—may get a bit safer.
Both Russian and Ukrainian infantry are going to be even more miserable, however, as they shiver in their cold muddy trenches and trudge through deepening winter mud.
The weather turned in early October. Not coincidentally, that's when Russian field armies around Pokrovsk finally deployed the hundreds, if not thousands, of tanks and other armored vehicles they had spent most of this year stockpiling.
Heavy vehicles are extremely vulnerable to the tiny explosive drones that are everywhere all the time along the 1,100-km front, of course. Anything that reduces the pace of drone sorties—bad weather than throws drones off course and obscures their sensors, for example—is a boon to vehicle crews.
“Russian forces are trying to carry out mechanized assaults under weather conditions unfavorable for UAV operations, while Ukrainian troops are repelling them,” the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team noted.
The weather was bad in early October, but maybe not bad enough. Despite the overcast, Ukrainian drones detected and—with the help of artillery and mines—halted all four major Russian mechanized assaults around Pokrovsk in recent weeks.
"We have terrible weather conditions," Ukrainian drone operator Kriegsforscher reported after helping to knock out 16 vehicles on 9 October. "But we still managed to find an opportunity."
The Russians' fortunes may improve as the winter sets in, however.
"Rain and fog ... hinder Ukrainian reconnaissance UAVs from detecting [Russian] armored vehicle columns in advance," the pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team explained.
If more Russian armor can get across the wide drone kill zone and land infantry inside Ukrainian territory, the Russians may be able to accelerate their slow pace of advance around Pokrovsk as October turns into November.
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Safer supply routes
But it's not all bad news for Ukraine. The same weather that obscures Russian tanks from Ukrainian drones also obscures Ukrainian supply trucks from Russian drones.
This is especially important for Ukrainian trucks trying to roll south into Pokrovsk past the 40-square-kilometer salient Russian forces carved out of Ukrainian lines near the village of Dobropillia back in August.
The rain and fog "may enable the [armed forces of Ukraine] to more safely use the road near the Dobropillia salient because the airspace contains fewer enemy drones on such days," CIT predicted.
So, while more Russian tanks attack, Ukrainian defenders around Pokrovsk may have more supplies, more shells, more missiles, and more capacity to resist.
The only clear losers are the infantry on both sides, who were already struggling in the cold mud that defines the early winter in eastern Ukraine—and are now about to struggle harder. With drones patrolling tens of kilometers in both directions from the line of contact, the journey to the line for an infantryman is "now a full-scale trek," one Russian blogger moaned.
It's often unsafe for vehicles, so the infantry walk. "With all your gear, about 30 kilos of it, you're dropped off 10 to 15 kilometers from the point where you'll be fighting," the blogger added. "In some areas, the trek can be up to 30 kilometers."
Imagine walking with that weight when it's cold and wet. Now imagine that only the miserable cold and wet are your best defenses against the drones that still stand a pretty good chance of killing you.
