Former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valerii Zaluzhnyi does not see within NATO the same appetite for a new arms race to control the global security system that Russia has—an ambition that China, Iran, and North Korea will inherit through war experience.
In his article for Eastern Flank Institute, Zaluzhnyi explains that a fundamentally new military doctrine is currently being developed and will be completed by 2030.
“These will be armed forces of robots, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence, combined with experience and existing doctrines. Most importantly, they will be able to scale their new capabilities to the required level,” Zaluzhnyi says.
Ukraine is buying time for Europe, but the real battle for security begins now
He suggests that one of the main failures in preparing for war was postponing unpopular decisions in favor of short-term popularity and fulfilling populist promises. The same problem may now be seen among European leaders.
Naturally, accelerating institutional defense readiness in a democratic society requires a dialogue with that society.
“Who will initiate this dialogue first—European governments or the Russian military—depends on us and our partners,” Zaluzhnyi says.
He adds that "for now, Ukrainians, fighting for their own survival, are buying time for their European neighbors."
Is Europe truly aiming to build a new security architecture?
“Despite countless discussions held at various forums in both Ukraine and Europe, and the postponement of new sanction packages, at this moment we have only one programmatic document developed on a European basis,” Zaluzhnyi says.
This is the “Joint European Defence White Paper – Preparedness by 2030.” For the first time, this document focuses on the need for Europe’s strategic autonomy from the US.
“However, analyzing this document from both our perspective and the European one, we must conclude that the declared allocation of financial resources will definitely not be sufficient to achieve its main goal,” he states.
Europe is not ready to abandon reliance on Washington
Another question is: to what extent are the citizens of EU member states and their political elites ready to prioritize defense if it means, for example, reducing economic well-being?
Currently, more than 60% of European defense procurement is conducted in the US.
Zaluznyi emphasizes the main issue: the primary motivation for creating the EU was the pursuit of peace and stability, accompanied by full security guarantees from the US and NATO
.
Consequently, the EU itself does not yet have clear mechanisms of obligation. As a result, there is no foundation for enforcing political will.
“Therefore, the implementation of the proposals presented in this document (White Paper) will be based on ‘motivation’ and ‘encouragement,’ without establishing binding mechanisms,” Zaluzhnyi says.
Thus, despite far-reaching expectations, Europe’s security in practical terms will remain dependent on the US.
Accordingly, despite European states' determination to assume greater responsibility for their own security, concrete concepts of the new defense architecture are only beginning to take shape.
No joint military structures within the EU and no commanders
The White Paper up to 2030 does not include the primary goal of creating joint military structures within the EU, nor the bodies and institutions capable of commanding them.
Zaluzhnyi notes, speaking specifically about military capabilities, that under current conditions, they can only be achieved by implementing a unified, integrated transformation system across several areas:
- development and implementation of new technologies;
- a thorough reform of the defense industry under a strict state program;
- logistics and procurement adjusted for rapid and radical changes in needs;
- management of processes not only on the battlefield but also within state institutions to achieve political objectives;
- the structures of the Defense Forces and Armed Forces as the primary bearers of capabilities;
- doctrines for training and employing all components of the defense forces.
But due to the absence of a clear mechanism of responsibility, “talks of Europe’s strategic autonomy from the US are decidedly premature,” Zaluzhnyi says.
That is why the EU’s foreign policy will remain focused on maintaining the current formula of ensuring its security, first and foremost by keeping the US at its center.
At the same time, joint work with the EU will allow Ukraine to share not only its suffering but also its unique wartime experience, adds Zaluzhnyi. This will help EU countries accelerate the improvement of their defense strategies, not only in terms of defense-industrial cooperation.
