Russian President Vladimir Putin is leveraging arms control proposals to pressure the Trump administration into negotiations aimed at securing concessions on Ukraine, according to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin claimed that US implementation of his New START initiative, combined with "the entire range of efforts to normalize bilateral relations," could create an atmosphere "conducive to substantive strategic dialogue" with the United States, ISW reported. The institute forecasted in August 2025 that Russia would pursue this strategy of dangling bilateral arms control talks to advance its objectives in Ukraine.
ISW assesses that the Kremlin is using the prospect of strategic negotiations to "secure Russia's desired demands in Ukraine and deflect from Russia's responsibility for the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations." The Russian government has manufactured escalatory moves in recent months, including withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in August 2025, to coerce the Trump administration into arms control discussions.
This marks a continuation of Putin's previous tactics linking arms control to Ukraine policy. In February 2023, Putin suspended Russia's participation in New START in direct response to Western military aid to Ukraine. Putin's 22 September statements represent an attempt to position himself as Trump's equal and present Russia as a global power comparable to the United States, according to ISW.
The institute reported that Putin has consistently worked to posture Russia as inheriting the Soviet Union's superpower status since Trump's January 2025 inauguration. These efforts serve to reinforce what ISW characterizes as the Kremlin's "false narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable," pressuring Ukraine and Western allies to accept Russia's maximalist demands rather than face escalating aggression.
