Today, the biggest news comes from Belarus. President Aliaksandr Lukashenka has openly warned his population to prepare for war, with new brigades being mobilized on the border and the groundwork being laid for rapid mobilization.
In his television address, Lukashenka told Belarusians to prepare for war and difficult times ahead, pushing through legal amendments that would allow martial law and authorize full-scale mobilization far more easily.
New brigades and military mobilization
Concrete moves on the ground are matching this warning. Belarus is forming a new full special operations brigade in Homel, within striking distance of Ukraine’s northern flank.
The brigade is set to receive Russia’s new Oreshnik ballistic missiles alongside advanced air defense and reconnaissance systems, supplementing existing Iskander launchers. This gives Belarus long-range and even nuclear strike capabilities.
Possible invasion scenarios
If Belarus enters the conflict, two main scenarios are in play:
- Northern Front Invasion: A direct push into western Ukraine to sever land supply routes from Poland and NATO states, cutting off Western arms and isolating Ukrainian forces in the east.
- Chernihiv Offensive: A renewed attempt along the 60-kilometer highway to Chernihiv, which Russia tried and failed to take in 2022. Belarusian reinforcements could increase pressure on stretched Ukrainian forces.
Northern Ukraine’s forested terrain would favor Belarusian special forces, making the new brigade a looming warning sign.
Suwalki gap and NATO risks
The second daring scenario is an operation toward the Suwalki Gap, the narrow stretch of land between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
Capturing or threatening this corridor would connect Russian and Belarusian forces, splitting NATO’s eastern flank in two.
Notably, a Russian reconnaissance drone recently violated Lithuanian airspace over Vilnius before crashing in a Lithuanian army training ground—suggesting surveillance of NATO infrastructure.
Zapad 2025 military exercises
These potential escalations coincide with the upcoming Zapad 2025 drills between Russia and Belarus, scheduled for September.
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Previous Zapad exercises were used to disguise preparations for real operations—most notably in 2021, which set the stage for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine one month later. Reports already show troop redeployments to training areas that could double as staging grounds.
NATO’s response
The West is taking notice. Germany has redeployed Eurofighter jets to Poland, stationing them east of Warsaw to reinforce NATO’s air policing mission.
Officials emphasize this is a defensive move in direct response to the Zapad drills, meant to strengthen deterrence without escalating to full-scale deployment.
The most serious escalation in years
Overall, Belarus’s preparations mark the most serious escalation on Ukraine’s northern border in over two years.
With Lukashenka’s rhetoric, new nuclear-capable systems, and sweeping legal changes, Minsk is setting the stage for open participation in the war. Whether aiming to cut Ukraine’s western lifelines or challenge NATO directly, the attack could come suddenly and with the element of surprise.
In our regular frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
