Failed Ukraine’s peace talks expose Trump’s dilemma: either crush Russia’s energy exports or accept Putin’s ceasefire game

Meanwhile, Russian forces are massing in Ukraine for its summer offensive.
President-Donald-Trump-
US President Trump holds first Cabinet meeting in the second term on 26 February 2024. Credit: UPI.com
Failed Ukraine’s peace talks expose Trump’s dilemma: either crush Russia’s energy exports or accept Putin’s ceasefire game

The meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul clearly showed he isn’t yet ready to do a deal, The Wall Street Journal reports. 

“We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” That was the message delivered by Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to the Ukrainian delegation during recent peace talks in Istanbul. Another statement attributed to him warned: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”

Russia insisted it would only consider a ceasefire if Ukraine withdrew from all four regions Russia claims to have annexed-Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia-despite not fully controlling them. Ukrainian diplomatic sources said Russia also threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy, expanding its territorial demands.

“Putin has signaled that his demands haven’t changed since the beginning of the war,” the report says.

Those demands include:

  • Territorial concessions by Kyiv
  • A radically downsized Ukrainian military
  • Guarantees that Ukraine would never join NATO
  • No NATO troops stationed in Ukraine

While ultimatums were being voiced at the negotiating table, the Kremlin was ramping up pressure on the battlefield. Analysts say Russia is amassing troops in the east, preparing for a new offensive, aiming to seize more territory before entering real negotiations.

For US President Donald Trump, who is promoting the idea of a “quick peace,” the events in Istanbul show that the roadblock to peace is Putin, just as the Ukrainians and their European backers claim.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the most of the situation, telling journalists before the talks that “Trump needs to believe that Putin actually lies.”

Now, the question emerges whether the US president is willing to use his power to pressure Putin into moving toward peace—”especially whether he will shut down Russia’s economic lifeline: its energy exports.”

On 10 May, Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, and Poland proposed a 30-day unconditional ceasefire starting 12 May. In the event of refusal, Ukraine’s allies intended to impose tough sanctions on Russia. Russian troops have not stopped fighting. Still no measures have been introduced. 

Earlier, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the Ukrainian president’s sanctions advisor, said Russia has lost at least $150 billion due to sanctions but still manages to maintain its military power. 

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