Today, there is interesting news from the Kursk direction. Here, the Ukrainians launched another surprising incursion through the border. This is putting extra pressure on the Russian reserves and could force them into an overreaction that can lead to even more serious problems for them and result in an operational-level penetration and crisis.
Ukraine has launched a new incursion, opening a new chapter of its border raids with the clear goal to open a fresh front, stretch Russian defenses even further, and exploit vulnerabilities, especially as Russian forces remain engaged with the earlier Ukrainian operations in Belgorod and the initial Kursk assault.
The Ukrainian plan incorporates creating multiple simultaneous threats along the border and strategically prevents the Russians from focusing on their Donbas summer campaign by baiting them into costly defensive operations in Kursk.
Communication blackout
The incursion started with well-timed preliminary strikes, with the Ukrainian Air Force hitting a Russian drone command center near the village of Tyotkino, reportedly killing up to 20 Russian personnel, including drone operators and commanders. This attack likely crippled local Russian drone coordination, crucial for both reconnaissance and counter-strike capabilities.
In tandem, Ukrainian forces shelled Tyotkino and engaged in a battle near the railway station, while Ukrainian aviation destroyed a bridge near the village of Zvannoe to isolate the Russian defenders. These actions disrupted Russian mobility and communications, laying the groundwork for the main effort.
Towards Tyotkino, Ukrainians launched a sophisticated maneuver aiming to isolate Russian forward positions, which were already vulnerable due to their exposure on three sides. A pontoon crossing was set up, and engineering units breached Russian fortifications successfully. This initial push appeared to be a reconnaissance-in-force, exposing Russian firing positions for targeting by Ukrainian FPV drones, which now dominate the area, attacking Russian logistics.
The Ukrainian decision to evacuate border settlements signals plans for more intense fighting, likely involving more substantial forces, and suggests that Ukraine is preparing to hold and expand its gains in the area.
Extracting “dragon’s teeth” defenses
In the next step of the operation in the Novi Put direction, the local “dragon’s teeth” defenses were already compromised since September last year, so Ukrainian armored vehicles moved in after mine-clearing operations, exploiting a pre-existing gap without conducting a full-scale breaching assault.
This allowed for rapid penetration and complicated the Russian tactical response.
As Russian positions in Tyotkino are essentially surrounded from the start, if the Russians stubbornly and at all costs try to hold them, and then, in the event of a loss, attempt to retake them just as stubbornly, the Russian army could suffer heavy losses. Russian analysts suggest that this may not be the Ukrainians’ main offensive, but rather a diversion aimed at drawing off Russian operational reserves and conducting their main strike in a completely different direction.
Should Ukrainian troops secure Tyotkino and establish fortified positions there, they will gain a key foothold to disrupt Russian supply lines in depth and potentially threaten the logistical heart of this part of the Kursk region.
As Ukrainian forces that withdrew earlier from the first Kursk incursion were not destroyed, but are still combat-effective, they can now be reinserted into action, giving Ukraine the initiative. This would extend even more pressure over the Russian command to throw its forces in a counterattack, which would be doomed to end in disaster with huge losses, due to the terrain and Ukrainian drone dominance.
Russia’s Victory Day in shadows
If the current effort succeeds, a logical next step for Ukraine would be a push toward Glushkovo. Capturing ground along the Seym River could effectively cut Russian communications to the west, isolating multiple positions and paving the way for a new, broader Ukrainian presence in Kursk Oblast.
If this happens before or during Victory Day on 9 May, it would not only be a military blow to Russia but a psychological one as well, overshadowing a key symbolic date. Success in Kursk would undo Russia’s gains from March and April and serve as a morale-boosting milestone for Ukrainian forces.
Overall, the newest incursion into Kursk is not an isolated action but a deliberate continuation of Ukraine’s border pressure campaign. Combined with the earlier Belgorod operation, it represents a clear attempt to overstretch Russian military capacity, disrupt reinforcements to Eastern Ukraine, and deny the Russian command any breathing room.
In our daily frontline report, we pair up with the military blogger Reporting from Ukraine to keep you informed about what is happening on the battlefield in the Russo-Ukrainian war.
