Poll: Overwhelming majority of Ukrainians reject surrender even if US aid ceases

A recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) reveals that a strong majority of Ukrainians believe they must continue resisting Russian aggression even if the US ceases support for Ukraine, while also firmly rejecting Russia’s ceasefire conditions.

This comes as Ukraine accepted the US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire, which was not yet endorsed by Putin. The Russian president, however, agreed during a phone call with Trump to a 30-day halt on strikes against energy infrastructure in Ukraine, while the drone attacks still continued from both sides. 

On 24 March, Russian and US officials held a 12-hour session of talks in Saudi Arabia primarily focused on a Black Sea maritime ceasefire. Ukraine also continued its negotiations with the US in Saudi Arabia on 25 March, but without any concrete resolutions as so far. 

Majority of Ukrainians view US-proposed ceasefire positively

According to the KIIS survey conducted between 12-22 March 2025, 77% of Ukrainians view the temporary ceasefire proposal positively.

Nearly half of respondents (47%) believe the initiative primarily serves to demonstrate Russia’s unwillingness for peace, while 18 % see it as a step towards a real end to the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine. Only 17% perceive it negatively.

Regional analysis shows consistent support across Ukraine, with positive perception ranging from 72% in eastern regions to 85% in western Ukraine. 

Majority of Ukrainians won’t accept Russian ceasefire demands

However, for the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 79% – Russian demands for a ceasefire are categorically unacceptable, which include ending mobilization, stopping Western weapons supplies and halting intelligence sharing.

Only 16% indicated willingness to accept these terms, with most of those (14%) considering it a difficult option.

Majority of Ukrainians won’t accept ceasefire without security guarantees

The study further explored public attitudes toward potential security guarantees accompanying any ceasefire agreement.

KIIS found that 62% of Ukrainians would categorically reject a ceasefire without security guarantees. However, support increases significantly when guarantees are included, with 60% backing a ceasefire secured by Western peacekeepers, 58% supporting one paired with NATO membership, and 56% accepting an arrangement with increased military support.

“If Ukraine receives at least some security guarantees, more than half of Ukrainians will (albeit reluctantly) support a ceasefire,” notes the KIIS report.

Ukrainians want to achieve “a perhaps not entirely fair, but acceptable peace” relying instead on European allies if the US withdraws aid.

Majority of Ukrainians want to continue fighting even if US aid ceases

The survey addressed a scenario where US support might permanently cease. In such a circumstance, 82% of respondents believed Ukraine should continue fighting with European support alone, while only 8% would consider accepting surrender terms.

“Ukrainians do demonstrate a sincere desire for peace and remain flexible to discuss even painful compromises, such as postponing the liberation of certain occupied territories. However, at the same time, there is an unequivocal consensus among Ukrainians against peace on any terms,” said Anton Hrushetskyi, an executive director of KIIS.

The KIIS survey methodology included random sampling of mobile phone numbers across government-controlled Ukrainian territories, with 1,326 respondents aged 18 and older. The statistical error under normal circumstances would not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, though KIIS acknowledges potential systematic deviations under wartime conditions.