Czech President Petr Pavel believes that Ukraine’s 2023 counter was doomed to fail.
In an interview with European Pravda, Pavel explained the reasons for this assessment
Answering the question of why he thought in early 2023 that Ukraine “should prepare not for victory, but for concessions and that regaining control over the borders would not be possible,” he said that it was quite obvious to him, given Western behavior.
“For me, this was quite obvious back then, considering that Western countries would not be able to come to Ukraine’s aid with their armies, as that would mean a war between NATO and Russia,” he said, adding that “it was only about material support. And even that support was not large enough to allow Ukraine to win the war quickly. But the main point is that Ukraine could only rely on its own human resources. And these are limited and, of course, much smaller than Russia’s.”
Accordingly, he concluded that “with limited human resources and without the real will of the West to provide much more support, Ukraine would not be able to liberate territories occupied by Russia without significant losses.”
He added that per military theory, a successful offensive requires a force ratio of at least three to one is needed, and ideally five to one.
“However, at that time, the force ratio between Ukraine and Russia was even in favor of Russia!” he noted.
At the same time, Pavel believes that while making compromises, Ukraine must not recognize the occupied territories as Russian: It is only about acknowledging the reality “on the ground”: part of Ukraine’s territory remains and will be temporarily occupied by Russia for some time.”
The West, however, needs to ensure that Ukraine receives aid to hold its territory, avoid losing new territories, and create the conditions for a ceasefire as quickly as possible, and eventually for peace.
At the same time, he didn’t specify whether he sees a real chance to return Crimea, Donbas, and other Russian-occupied parts, saying that “there are territories occupied by another state, but this is not recognized, and these lands have not become theirs. Yes, this situation may last quite a long time. But this is a matter of principle.”
