Spring has finally arrived, and with it comes what I call “the month of horrors.” Not because everything will be exceptionally bad but because it will be frightening. The growing fear stems from uncertainty amplified by deliberate escalation from enemies and what we call “useful idiots.” Let me break down exactly what’s happening to Ukraine right now.
How does the victim trap work?
Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, we’ve been trapped in an ancient diplomatic pattern I call “compromise at the expense of the victim.” When an aggressor fails to achieve its full objective, it switches tactics and pushes for settlements that force the victim to make increasingly damaging concessions.
Make no mistake about how this works. The aggressor structures these compromises as a chain reaction. Each concession weakens the victim further until they inevitably self-destruct—either through internal explosion or collapse under external pressure.
Here’s the crucial detail nobody talks about: When a case involves obvious injustice, resembling what I’ll bluntly call “rape with elements of dismemberment,” both the aggressor and bystanders desperately need the victim to accept deadly compromises VOLUNTARILY.
I’ve watched this strategy unfold since 2014 from the outside and since 2020 from the inside as part of the Trilateral Contact Group negotiations. This diplomatic forum, established after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, brought together Ukraine, Russia, and OSCE to implement the Minsk agreements. France and Germany, through the Normandy Format, acted as key mediators, pushing for de-escalation. However, Russia used the agreements as leverage while undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty, and diplomatic efforts ultimately failed to prevent the 2022 invasion.
Russians, with the silent approval of Western partners, have consistently structured every process to achieve Ukraine’s voluntary capitulation. This would conveniently allow countries like France and Germany to save face and continue business with Moscow without remorse. After all, if Ukraine surrendered voluntarily, what responsibility would they bear?
What is real compromise?
Let me spell out what Russia’s version of “compromise” actually means:
- They permanently keep the four regions they’ve seized, plus Crimea
- Ukraine becomes militarily sterile—not just barred from NATO but prohibited from any foreign military cooperation
- Our remaining territory gets saturated with destructive elements that will trigger the next round of destabilization.
In their view, the only thing to negotiate is whether we compensate Viktor Yanukovych (the corrupt former president who fled to Russia) for his “forced absence” in dollars or euros. Their idea of compromise is to discuss only what Ukraine still controls while accepting whatever Russia has already seized.
Ukraine’s approach is fundamentally the opposite. We recognize Russia as the aggressor and Putin as a murderer. We accept a temporary fixation along the current battle lines (including potentially exchanging Kursk) to stop the fighting. Still, we’re only willing to discuss HOW Russia withdraws from our country, not IF.
We don’t demand immediate withdrawal by “Monday morning”—we’ll accept Tuesday evening in stages—but withdrawal itself is non-negotiable. We’ll even promise to use only diplomatic pressure, not military force, to achieve this. But we need elements of trust restored: prisoners returned, stolen property recovered, compensation paid, and security guarantees established.
Trump’s broken deal with Putin
All this complexity fell to Trump, who became hostage to his promises of quickly resolving the war.
Let’s accept for a moment the widespread belief that Trump has long been aligned with Russian interests through figures like Witkoff, Musk, and others. Then, Russia has failed to deliver its end of the bargain. They provided him with a propaganda playbook about reclaiming $350 billion in Ukraine aid (significantly inflated from the actual amount) but couldn’t deliver results on the battlefield. Despite support for Kyiv being halted for six months, Moscow still failed to achieve decisive gains.
Even viewing this through a conspiratorial lens, Trump has fulfilled his part of any supposed arrangement with the Kremlin, while Putin has effectively hung him out to dry.
Russia sees no reason to change its “compromise at the victim’s expense” approach. Ukraine, however, refuses to accept these terms. Despite all our hardship and suffering, we won’t take steps toward national suicide when there are no guarantees.
This was glaringly apparent at the recent Ramstein meeting when Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth unilaterally disclosed the US position that Ukraine would not join NATO – a major concession that Ukraine never agreed to. Even the Germans were shocked and said so publicly. Trump’s statement that Ukraine has “no cards” follows the same strategy.
What’s consistently overlooked is that Ukraine could hold excellent cards if the US would deal them to us. Everyone involved understands this reality.
When going public helps
Ukraine would face a catastrophic situation if our disagreements remained behind closed doors. But because this pressure campaign happened publicly, the outcome shifted dramatically. The dramatic confrontation at the White House between Trump and Zelenskyy exposed tensions that might otherwise have remained hidden.Trump’s core audience in the US witnessed this dynamic. That’s why countless American politicians, officials, and billionaires rushed to praise Trump for “protecting America” from Zelenskyy. They desperately need to frame this as Ukraine showing “disrespect.”
But as JD Vance’s comments in Munich revealed, if a man in a sweater threatens America so severely that he needs to be crushed by Trump and his advisors, doesn’t that undermine claims of American greatness?It’s a blatant mismatch of power.
Perhaps more importantly, the whole world watched: Europe, Canada, Mexico, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Egypt, Ethiopia, Greece, Türkiye, and, of course, Moscow. Each draws their own conclusions about American power and reliability.
The US remains a global hegemon interdependent with the planet. American hegemony rests on non-equivalent exchange, technological leadership, dollar dominance, and more. When the world reconsiders its relationship with America, US citizens feel the impact and redirect it toward their leaders.
Gratitude isn’t a submission
We face an impossible bind regarding “ingratitude.” Ukraine has ALWAYS observed diplomatic norms and expressed thanks for assistance. Every meeting begins and ends with such acknowledgments.
But Washington doesn’t want verbal gratitude—they want submission disguised as appreciation. They demand Ukraine to accept “compromise at the victim’s expense” and controlled voluntary capitulation. Since we refuse, they find endless reasons to criticize.
If Zelenskyy had worn a suit, they would have asked, “Why are you unshaven?” Had he shaved completely, they would have criticized his grammar. They’ll find any pretext to diminish Ukraine until we demonstrate “gratitude” through surrender.
Strategic patience pays off
Several European nations clearly benefit from Ukraine fighting Russia—this serves their interests. Up to a point, this aligns with our needs too. Ukraine doesn’t want endless war, but we are ready to contain Russia’s aggression.
Defending Europe comes at an enormous cost through Ukrainian sacrifices. Verbal European solidarity must transform into concrete support through military alliance and economic integration. Otherwise, catastrophe awaits everyone.
As for predictions of the future, I caution against all unnamed “sources”—whether bearing good or bad news. Focus only on official statements backed by actions. Significant changes take months to implement, not days, so preventive panic is unnecessary.
Despite technological advances and social media acceleration, politics follows ancient patterns. A “small victorious war” remains the best way to inspire a population. As Trump encounters difficulties, he’ll need such victories, both literal and symbolic. This creates a contradiction: Trump wants to appear as a peacemaker while his defense secretary contemplates attacking Mexico. The situation remains fluid.
In general, the information landscape may appear a hundred times scarier than the actual facts. The only way to force voluntary draconian “compromises” is to break the will psychologically first. Material changes require months—time Trump doesn’t have. Many developments are still possible. It might be easier for him to provide targeted support to Ukraine in order to hurt Russia.
Compromises will happen, difficult ones. But their scale may differ by orders of magnitude depending on our approach.
Therefore, we must gradually lower the temperature and develop interaction with the US without unnecessary publicity. After all, it would be beneficial if Trump demonstrated his dealmaking prowess by finding common ground with a “stubborn” Zelenskyy. What occasion could facilitate this? Perhaps Europe purchasing American weapons. Previously, Zelenskyy collected money in the US; now, he could “sell” American weapons to Europe—all thanks to Trump!
Making dark predictions about Ukraine’s fate is easy – anyone can prophesy doom. The harder, more valuable task is finding practical opportunities to improve our situation while supporting Ukrainian people at home and on the front. Our immediate practical challenge remains to overcome our spring vitamin deficiency—the literal depletion of resources and energy after winter and the metaphorical exhaustion of our strategic reserves in this horrible war.
Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in our Opinion section belong to their authors. Euromaidan Press’ editorial team may or may not share them.
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