Next week could be pivotal for advancing peace in Ukraine, as the US and Russia are set to begin direct negotiations, and European leaders convene urgently, fearing decisions might be made without their input, according to Financial Times.
On 12 February, Trump announced the start of negotiations with Moscow to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, following calls with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin. His statement triggered a wave of criticism, as experts warned that it could be a ceasefire on Putin’s terms with no security guarantees for Ukraine, especially after US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called Ukraine’s NATO membership aspirations “unrealistic.” This conversation also stirred concerns in Europe, as its representatives were not involved in the negotiations. Amid uncertainty about whether the US will lead to a weakening of NATO due to its increasingly isolationist stance, many media outlets and analysts have labeled this strategy as a victory for Russia.
The most influential European leaders will meet in Paris on 17 February to coordinate their actions in response to Trump’s push for a quick deal with Putin. This week, Trump’s chief diplomat, Marco Rubio, will also meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Saudi Arabia.
The Rubio-Lavrov talks are expected to pave the way for a meeting between Trump and Putin in the coming weeks. These discussions highlight the absence of European leaders from the negotiations, which could eventually alter Europe’s security architecture.
“I think the world order started to shift on the 24th of February 2022, and we are now seeing the direction in which it might be going,” said Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president.
A Western official described as “insane” how quickly the new US administration has established dialogue with Moscow.
“All (Europe) must do is give Ukraine as much as possible so that it can better say ‘no’ to things rammed down its throat (by the US and Russia),” said a Western official briefed on the talks.
At the urgent meeting in Paris, European leaders will discuss their potential involvement in ending the war in Ukraine. This could include deploying European troops in Ukraine to secure a future ceasefire line. Many European leaders are also concerned about the future of US aid after the war and what actions Europeans themselves can take in this regard.
A challenge for Europeans is that members of Trump’s team seem divided on how the war should end. It is unclear who will have more influence on his decision-making and who will play a larger role in the negotiation process.
On 15 February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv began working with Trump’s team, expressing optimism about potential success in peace efforts amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war.
Zelenskyy highlighted recent diplomatic engagements, including a phone conversation with Trump before the ongoing Munich Security Conference and a substantive meeting with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Related:
- Politico: Trump officials head to Saudi Arabia for talks with Russia, Ukraine joins as well
- Zelenskyy: Ukraine was not invited to US-Russian meeting in Saudi Arabia over war in Ukraine
- Zelenskyy: We must build Armed Forces of Europe for future to depend only on Europeans
