Donald Trump has already walked back on his claim that he would solve the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking office.
Just as he once stated that he would resolve the healthcare crisis in the US easily, then backtracked to say “nobody knew that health care was so complicated”, Trump’s advisors have now admitted the war in Ukraine can’t be easily negotiated. Trump’s “art of the deal” does not really work in the real world of conflict resolution.
Trump’s original plan was to give Ukraine additional military aid to provide a deterrence against further Russian aggression. This would incentivise it coming to the negotiating table.
Another possible tactic was halting aid to Ukraine to get it to negotiate. Once “peace talks” began, Trump would urge Ukraine to capitulate territory, and create an 800-mile demilitarised buffer zone (to be guarded by Nato or European troops).
On the issue of Nato, Trump is sympathetic with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s view that Ukraine joining Nato is a threat to Russian security. So, Ukraine would have to abandon its dreams of ever joining the regional security bloc. Russia in turn would get major sanctions relief, while a portion of the proceeds from tariffs on Russian energy exports would be allocated to Ukraine.
Trump’s peace plan was engineered by incoming Russia-Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg (a highly decorated three-star general), who recently cancelled an upcoming trip to Kyiv. In spite of this, Trump has signalled that he wants to engage in diplomatic talks with Putin to “get the war over with”.
Trump’s peace deal for Ukraine is limited to a ceasefire – and it’s not even clear if Kyiv or Moscow are going to play ball
While the plan faces many hurdles, the biggest obstacle is that Putin does not really want to make a deal. Yes, in October Russia was losing 1,500 troops a day and the country was, and still is, struggling to recruit men. The Russian economy has had to endure a lot, with the onslaught of comprehensive sanctions, while being forced to spend tens of billions of dollars on defense instead of other government services.
Yet all of this doesn’t matter because Putin is obsessed with Ukraine and total victory. Russia could even face a recession (as has been forecast in 2025) and this would still not be enough for it to agree any deal where it would have to compromise.
Putin simply does not want Ukraine to be a sovereign nation. He either wants to destroy or control it. A weaker or non-existent Ukraine is not only a boon to Putin’s legacy as a strongman in Russia, but would be a huge blow to American global power.
Not surprisingly, Russia has already rejected these unofficial proposals from the US, even though it has yet to see an official document on the matter. Putin prefers to be a wartime president, and many Russian people are willing to live in this new normal when threatened by repression and motivated by patriotism.
Russia’s lack of compromise
Russia doesn’t think it needs to compromise. Putin knows he is far more committed to taking over Ukraine than the west is to defending it.
There are certainly signs of fatigue in Europe for supporting Ukraine indefinitely. In a YouGov poll of seven European countries (France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Denmark), continuing support for Ukraine until Russia withdrew was found to be as low as 31% on average, compared with around 40% for encouraging a negotiated end to fighting, even if Ukraine lost territory.
There is also fatigue in the US among lawmakers and the public. So, the provision of additional weapons to Ukraine might face resistance in Congress, which is now fully controlled by the Republican party.
Support for Ukraine already faced Republican opposition in 2023, which led to huge delays. And while the Biden administration recently announced a new tranche of military aid of about US$500 million (£408 million) – part of a total of US$175 billion since the 2022 invasion – there has been waning support for maintaining aid levels to Ukraine among Republicans in Congress.
This largely reflects how the American public feels. Based on a Gallup poll taken in December 2024, there is 48% support for the US helping Ukraine reclaim the territory it has lost in the war to Russia, marking the first time this has slipped below the majority. Support for Ukraine is also very split along partisan lines, with 74% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats wanting to end the war quickly. Additionally, 67% of Republicans think the US is doing too much.
Ultimately, it is likely there will be no peace deal any time soon because Trump does not really care about Ukraine.
Trump cares more about impressing Putin (or being seen as a deal-maker) than supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. His vice-president, J.D. Vance, has been more direct about it, stating in 2022: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” This view could have a devastating effect on willingness, and commitment, to negotiate.
According to analysis by US historian Robert Kagan, without US aid, Ukraine will lose the war within the next 12-to-18 months. Yet, for every square mile Russia gains, it loses 40 men – a heavy price to pay with Ukraine’s total area of 233,100 square miles.
The initial proclamations that Trump would resolve the Ukraine crisis in 24 hours were campaign bluster, showing little understanding of the intractability of the conflict and the challenges of setting up a new administration.
A few weeks ago, Trump stated that part of his plan “is a surprise”. The element of surprise is not just limited to the public. Maybe Trump has no idea what his next moves will be either, when it comes to ending this conflict. And that could play perfectly into Putin’s hands.
Copyright: The Conversation. This article was published by The Conversation on 17 January 2025 and has been republished by Euromaidan Press with permission.
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