Some 500,000 Ukrainians migrated abroad in 2024, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported in its January 2025 Inflation Report.
Ukraine’s population stood at approximately 41.1 million before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the State Statistics Service. This figure excluded Russian-occupied territories since 2014, including Crimea and parts of Donbas. After 24 February 2022, about 20.7 million people left Ukraine. As of January 2025, an estimated 29 million people remained in Ukraine, many having returned after the initial wave of emigration.
Security risks, constant shelling, and electricity shortages continue to drive Ukrainians to leave the country, the NBU reported.
The bank projected that another 200,000 people will leave Ukraine in 2025. A reversal of this trend could begin in 2026 with 200,000 people returning. This number might increase to 500,000 returnees in 2027.
“Mass and rapid return of migrants under the status quo appears unlikely,” the NBU noted in its report, citing increasing adaptation of Ukrainians abroad.
This slow return poses challenges for Ukraine’s economy. The report indicated that labor shortages will persist during the forecast period. These shortages will maintain labor market imbalances and lead to wage growth exceeding productivity in some sectors, increasing inflationary pressure.
The UN Refugee Agency reported 6.814 million Ukrainian refugees worldwide as of 16 December 2024. This number increased by 370,000 people in less than a year.
In early 2025, Ukraine launched a pilot project to facilitate the return of war refugees. Oleksandr Kamyshyn, an advisor to the President of Ukraine, announced this initiative during the 7th German-Ukrainian Business Forum in Berlin.
