ISW: All 12,000 North Korean troops in Kursk may be lost by April 2025

The Institute for Study of War (ISW) reported on 16 January that the entire North Korean contingent of approximately 12,000 troops currently deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast “may be killed or wounded in action by mid-April 2025 should North Korean forces continue to suffer from their current high loss rate in the future.”

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early January 2025, North Korean forces have already suffered 3,800 casualties in Kursk Oblast. This assessment is supported by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), which stated on 13 January that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed and 2,700 wounded in action in the region.

The high casualty rate emerged after North Korean forces became involved in more significant combat operations. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov reported on 5 November 2024 that North Korean troops were initially engaged in “small-scale” clashes in Kursk Oblast. However, ISW notes that Russian military bloggers began reporting on 6 December that North Korean forces had escalated to more substantial combat operations.

ISW calculates that North Korean forces have sustained approximately 92 casualties per day since beginning significant combat operations in early December 2024. At this rate, the entire contingent of roughly 12,000 North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast could be killed or wounded within about 12 weeks, by mid-April 2025.

“North Korean forces will likely continue to suffer a larger ratio of wounded to killed in action – as is typical for armed conflict – and it is unclear if or when injured North Korean soldiers return to combat,” ISW wrote.

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