Russia’s missile attack on Kyiv is response to Ukraine’s strike on strategic fuel plant, not to Zelenskyy’s criticism of Putin, analysts say

The Russian missile attack on Kyiv on 20 December, involving ballistic missiles, was a retaliatory response to Ukrainian long-range missile strikes on Russian territory, not a reaction to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s criticism of Russian ruler Vladimir Putin. On 19 December, Zelenskyy sharply criticized Putin for suggesting the testing of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile on Kyiv. Using strong language in both English and Ukrainian, the Ukrainian president referred to Putin as a "dumbass" who laughs while people suffer. This led to speculation that the subsequent missile strike was triggered by these remarks. Defence Express analysts suggest that given the high accuracy of the KN-23 ballistic missile, Kyiv itself was likely the target, without a specific object planned to be hit in the Ukrainian capital. However, Russia is aware of Kyiv’s robust air defense systems. On 16 May 2023, Russian forces launched their largest targeted attack aimed at destroying the US Patriot air defense system deployed in Kyiv. For that attack, Russia used 16 ballistic missiles, including Iskanders, Kh-47 Kinzhals, and S-400s, alongside cruise missiles and drones. However, following this failed attempt, Russia began deploying ballistic missiles against Kyiv only during combined massive strikes. By contrast, the 20 December strike relied exclusively on ballistic missiles, without cruise missiles or drones. Defence Express points out that preparing cruise missiles requires significant time, unlike ballistic missiles. Analysts further note that if the 20 December strike had been planned in advance, it would likely have been a combined attack, such as the 13 December offensive, which involved a record 287 missiles and drones. Preparing ballistic missiles does take less time, but “it is far from certain that the enemy could organize such an operation in just eight hours.” The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the strike was a response to the 18 December missile attack on the Kamensky Solid Rocket Fuel Plant in Rostov Oblast, reportedly carried out with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. Experts conclude that while the 20 December strike may have been an impulsive decision by Putin, it was primarily a response to the missile attack on Russian territory and not triggered by Zelenskyy’s comments about the Russian leader. Related:

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