Ukrainian forces are employing guerrilla tactic in Kursk Oblast, which enables them to resist the Russians who outnumber them tenfold and maintain control over significant territory, says Ukrainian-Russian war veteran and Reserve Major Oleksii Hetman, according to Kyiv24.
Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in August 2024, capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers and inflicting over 20,000 casualties. However, their advance has recently stalled due to strengthened Russian defenses and reinforcements.
Hetman says Ukraine is conducting a dynamic, maneuver-based campaign on Russian territory, aimed at maximizing damage to the Russians while avoiding direct confrontations with superior forces.
“The enemy tries to engage our units in battle because they outnumber us—by three to ten times. It is pointless to fight them directly in open fields or forests without fortifications when the enemy’s strength is tenfold. Therefore, we avoid such engagements. It can be roughly compared to guerrilla warfare,” said the military expert.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to push Ukraine’s Defense Forces out of Kursk Oblast by the time of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for 20 January, 2025. He has repeatedly promised to end the war between Russia and Ukraine swiftly but has not clarified how he plans to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.
Hetman believes that the Russian forces currently deployed in the region will not be sufficient to reclaim Kursk Oblast.
“If they deploy additional forces, increasing their advantage from tenfold to twentyfold, it would make holding the region untenable for Ukrainian forces,” he explained.
However, the military expert does not rule out that Russia could significantly increase its troop presence in Kursk Oblast. Hetman emphasized the strategic importance of these territories to Putin, calling Ukraine’s control over Russian territory a “significant bargaining chip” in potential negotiations to end the war.
“If the war is frozen along the current lines, including in Kursk Oblast, Putin will face accusations of conceding part of his territory to the US. Such a narrative would portray him as bowing to American demands, which is unacceptable for him. Therefore, he is desperate to reclaim these areas,” Hetman stressed.
Hetman also noted that Putin is unlikely to reject proposals from the US, as they will come with significant “additional conditions” should he fail to comply.
“I think the fighting in Kursk Oblast will intensify, and it’s entirely possible that Russia will deploy substantial reinforcements there—raising troop numbers from 45,000 to 100,000–150,000,” Hetman said.
A Ukrainian official revealed that Russia abandoned plans for an offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to Ukraine’s Kursk operation, adding that at the start of the operation, Russia had 40,000 troops in the region, which has since grown to approximately 59,000.
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