According to South Korean intelligence and military officials, North Korea has dispatched thousands of soldiers to Russia to support its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, with thousands more expected to join the fight by the end of the year.
According to The Korea Herald, the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a think tank affiliated with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), said in a report that North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia appears to be based on the calculation that a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election would lead to an early end to the Ukraine war.
The INSS said in the report:
“The US under Trump could pull out of Ukraine, which would undermine one of the main pillars of the new Cold War-like structure that Pyongyang has worked hard to build in recent years in its close cooperation with Moscow.”
However, the NIS said in its latest analysis that the costs of North Korea’s involvement seem to outweigh the benefits. But other experts in Seoul say Pyongyang can now expect Moscow to have its back in a possible contingency on the Korean Peninsula, The Korea Herald reports.
Rep. Wi Sung-lac, who was Seoul’s ambassador to Russia, told The Korea Herald that entering the war against Ukraine is “not a bad deal at all” for North Korea. He said each North Korean soldier sent to fight for Russia would be paid a monthly wage of around $2,000, translating to yearly revenue of well over $200 million.
South Korean intelligence says Russia’s provision of 600,000 to 700,000 tons of rice would cover over half of North Korea’s yearly shortage.
In addition, Russia is believed to be helping North Korea with advanced space technology, as Pyongyang seeks to launch another military reconnaissance satellite, according to the NIS.
The sweetest part of the deal for North Korea, according to Wi, is possibly getting Russia to fight alongside it in the event of a Korean Peninsula contingency.
“North Korea is on record as having fought for Russia. If there ever is a war on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea can now expect Russia to come and help,” he said.
However, the INSS argued in a report a week prior that North Korea would lose value to Russia once the war in Ukraine subsides. When that point comes, North Korea, while ensnared in sanctions and ties strained with traditional ally China, could no longer count on Russian assistance, the think tank said.
“In the long run, North Korea stands to lose more than it gains by joining Russia’s war,” the report said.
Related:
- EU foreign policy chief urges South Korea to increase support for Ukraine
- CNN: Putin unlikely to negotiate regardless of US election outcome
- North Korean troops face first combat in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian official says
- North Korea, Russia strengthen ties with new digital cooperation deal
- South Korea considers sending weapons to Ukraine amid North Korean deployment
- Russia deployed over 7,000 North Korean soldiers to areas near Ukraine – intelligence
