Russo-Ukrainian war, day 982: Ukraine’s defense production struggles amid explosives shortage

Exclusive

Georgia erupts as president slams Russia's grip on disputed vote. Thousands flood Tbilisi streets as the president exposes alleged vote theft by the pro-Kremlin party's shock win, morphing from state head to rebel leader overnight.

Military

BILD: Russian troops breach Ukrainian defenses in Donbas, setting stage for winter battles, expert warns. Finnish military expert Emil Kastehelmi reports a large-scale Russian offensive stretching across Donetsk, with over 100 battles in recent days. BI: Russia retakes territories in Kursk Oblast, but extended push into Ukraine's strongholds may stall. While Russian forces gain ground in Kursk, experts predict greater difficulties in taking and holding Ukraine's remaining strong positions. New Russian forces target Kupiansk as Ukrainian troops hold strong. Russia intensifies its offensive on the Kupiansk front, deploying fresh mechanized units, while Ukrainian defenders continue to block their advances. ISW: Russia forces wounded troops back into combat. Russian milbloggers claim wounded troops are redeployed to Ukraine's frontlines, facing forced combat, detention, and inadequate medical care. Ukraine denies Russia's full control over Donetsk Oblast's Chasiv Yar, Toretsk. Fighting reportedly continues, with Russian tactics shifting from frontal assaults to infiltration tactics, using smaller groups. None of Russia's 48 Shahed drones reach target during nighttime attack on Ukraine. Ukraine reports downing 31 Shahed drones, with 14 others crashing and three diverting to Belarus. As of 1 NOV 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 696410 (+1460)
• Tanks: 9162 (+6)
• APV: 18470 (+20)
• Artillery systems: 20039 (+26)
• MLRS: 1244 (+1)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 994
• Aircraft: 369
• Helicopters: 329
• UAV: 18088 (+25)
• Cruise missiles: 2628 (+1)
• Warships/boats: 28
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 28038 (+77)

Intelligence and Technology

Reuters: Explosives scarcity limits Ukraine's growing mortar shell production. Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Smetanin states that the missile program also faces delays due to supply chain issues. Estonia eyes Ukrainian-made "high quality" drones for its armed forces. Estonia's defense leadership is considering Ukrainian drone suppliers to strengthen its armed forces, with plans for cooperation potentially enhancing Ukraine's defense production capabilities.

International

Poland proposes defense loans to Ukraine amid tensions over MiG fighter jets. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's claims that Poland hasn't delivered MiG-29s, Sikorski suggests Ukraine buy arms on credit. Pyongyang pledges loyalty to Russia "until victory" over Ukraine. North Korea's FM Choe Son Hui hailed Putin's "wise leadership" ahead of talks in Moscow, and insisted that Russia will "achieve a great victory." Berlin says weapon shortages, not finances, hinder timely Ukraine aid. Germany is continuously assessing additional military support options and encourages its partner nations to conduct similar reviews. US congressman calls for NATO to permit Ukrainian strikes into Russia over North Korean involvement in war. US Congressman Mike Turner urges NATO to lift restrictions on Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory and consider direct action against North Korean forces in Ukraine. Ukraine to request military aid from South Korea as North Korea sends troops for Russia's war. In light of North Korean forces aiding Russia, Ukraine and South Korea strengthen diplomatic ties. Switzerland donates rescue equipment to Ukraine's emergency services. The package includes 30 debris-clearing machines and 30 fire pumps worth $6,47 million to support emergency services in managing war-related infrastructure destruction and civilian assistance. Canada pushes allies to approve Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russia with Western weapons. Canada's FM Mélanie Joly stated that Canada supports Ukraine's long-range strikes within Russia and advocates lifting restrictions on Western weapon use for such operations. South Korea plans to send monitoring team to Ukraine amid North Korean troop presence. An official stated Seoul has a "legitimate need" to analyze North Korean military activities in the war in Ukraine and "feels the need" to establish a monitoring team.

New Developments

Putin reaffirms war goals, rules out a ceasefire in Ukraine, Vučić says. Serbia's President claimed Russia's ruler revealed during a phone call that Russia keeps rejecting ceasefire possibilities while pursuing stated military goals. VoA: Ukraine doubles down on psychological warfare against North Korean troops. Kyiv expands psychological warfare campaign targeting Pyongyang troops with surrender messages, as Seoul enhances intelligence cooperation with Ukrainian forces. Read the daily review for Thu 31 Oct 2024 here