Russia aims to force Western countries to stop military support for Ukraine by spreading fear, acting aggressively, and crossing “red lines” with impunity, said Rolf Nikel, Vice President of the German Council on Foreign Relations, according to UkrInform.
On 25 September, Putin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, introducing “clarifications” on the conditions under which Russia might use nuclear weapons.
According to these updates, Russia will now consider using nuclear weapons in two specific scenarios: first, in the case of “aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state with the support or participation of a nuclear state,” and second, upon “receiving reliable information about the massive launch of air and space weapons” aimed at Russia, with these weapons crossing Russian borders.
Putin specified that the “air and space weapons” that could justify Russia’s use of nuclear weapons include strategic and tactical aviation, cruise missiles, drones, and hypersonic missiles.
Despite the changes, Rolf Nikel said the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons is doubtful. He made his claims during the panel “Can Europe Build Reliable Nuclear Deterrence?” at the Warsaw Security Forum.
“First, about the threat: Russia wants to pressure the entire West into stopping military support for Ukraine. It’s about spreading fear, and this is reckless and very aggressive behavior, going far beyond what we saw during the first Cold War with the Soviet Union. Russia has already crossed many ‘red lines’ without any response,” said Nikel.
He dismissed Russia’s nuclear threats, stating they aren’t worth attention since Russia is not prepared to launch nuclear aggression against Ukraine or NATO for several reasons.
“First, Russia believes it’s winning in Ukraine without needing to use nuclear weapons. Second, the consequences, especially US retaliation, would be massive and catastrophic. And third, China has already expressed concern about Russia’s position on such a possibility,” Nikel added.
Regarding Germany, he suggested it’s necessary to do more in the long term to “counter the strategic or sub-strategic threat from Russian nuclear weapons,” as missiles stationed in Kaliningrad could reach Berlin in five minutes.
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