The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russia’s readiness to provide weapons to Yemeni Houthis demonstrates Vladimir Putin’s desire to pressure the West into abandoning support for Ukraine, while also revealing Russia’s growing dependence on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.
According to CNN sources, the Kremlin planned to transfer missiles and other military equipment to Houthis in Yemen but did not follow through after diplomatic pressure.
ISW states that Russia’s reported plan “highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision-making.”
The analysts note this aligns with Russian information operations aimed at encouraging Western self-deterrence from supporting Ukraine over fears of confrontation with Russia.
“Putin’s willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia’s increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components,” ISW reports. Increased Russian willingness to use Iran and its proxies to indirectly confront the West “will disrupt Russian attempts to portray Russian foreign policy in the Middle East as balanced and may further complicate Russian relations with countries concerned about Russian-Iranian cooperation.”
According to CNN, citing US officials and other sources, Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in late July 2024. US officials said they were unsure whether Saudi Arabia’s protests were the determining factor in halting the planned transfer. CNN’s sources said at least three Russian military officers visited Yemen in late July 2024 to advise the Houthis and possibly help them conduct live-fire exercises, which the Houthis later canceled.
Other key takeaways from the ISW report:
- Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on 2 August.
- Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on 3 August.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.
- Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service.
Related:
- Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Morozovsk airfield, oil depot in Rostov Oblast (video)
- Zelenskyy urges partners to allow “truly long-range strikes” on Russian airfields with Western weapons
- Ukraine’s Air Force has already downed over 8000 Russian targets and conducted over 20,000 combat sorties
- Two of five Russian airfields in occupied Crimea left without aircraft, Ukrainian Navy says
