In July, Ukraine has launched more long-range drone attacks than Russia for the first time. According to published figures, Ukraine hit back with over 520 drones in July, while Russia sent 426 Shahed-type drones into Ukraine during the same period, Forbes says.
This year, Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks against the Russian oil industry, significantly disrupting fuel supplies crucial for the Russian military, while simultaneously decreasing the Kremlin’s export revenues.
Russian officials have reported numerous Ukrainian drone attacks throughout July. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have destroyed 50 Ukrainian drones within Russian territory on 5 July, with subsequent attacks allegedly ranging from 19 to 80 drones on various dates throughout the month.
The Ukrainian strikes appear to be causing greater economic damage, particularly targeting oil refineries and other strategic assets. Ukraine’s drone campaign is multi-pronged, targeting oil refineries, military airbases, and electric substations. Analyst Mick Ryan notes that this creates dilemmas for Russian military planners, forcing them to choose between protecting different types of assets.
The exact capabilities of Ukraine’s drones are unknown, but recent attacks have demonstrated ranges of over 1,800 kilometers. Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Russian Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jet at Saky airbase in occupied Crimea and damaged a Tu-22M strategic bomber at Olenya in Russia’s Murmansk Oblast in strikes on 27 July, although these claims cannot be independently verified.
Ukrainian drone production appears to be ramping up. In December, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine, stated an aim to produce 10,000 strike drones with ranges in the hundreds of kilometers in 2024.
While one month of increased drone strikes may not be conclusive, July may mark a turning point in the strategic drone war, potentially signaling the start of increasing challenges for Russia in defending against these long-range attacks.
“One month of increased drone strikes may not be meaningful. Ukraine has not yet exceeded the total of 600 Shaheds launched by Russia in March and December. But July may mark a turning point in the strategic drone war, and the start of increasing problems for Russia,” Forbes notes.
Related:
- Drones damage two Russian power facilities as Russia’s missile crashes in Kalmykia
- Drone hits Russia’s Kstovo oil refinery for the second time
- Zelenskyy praises intelligence unit for long-range strike likely on Russia’s air base near Finland
- Ukraine downs Russian drones with Soviet-era training plane in WWI-style dogfight
- Russian drone fragments found in Moldova near Ukraine border
- Ukrainian UAVs attack Russia’s Ryazan
- Boeing and Antonov sign agreement to bolster Ukraine’s drone capabilities
