Russo-Ukrainian war, day 780: Ukraine bolsters air defenses with new Patriot system from Germany

Exclusives

Sobering update from NATO: Russia's military now larger and more capable post-invasion. Russia has become a learning organization that little resembles the chaotic force that invaded Ukraine two years ago, Gen. Cavoli argues.

The Big Oil behind America's criticism of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Mykhailo Honchar, a Ukrainian energy analyst, contends that Defense Secretary Austin's warnings against striking Russian refineries reveal the Kremlin's influence on US policy through oil giants like Chevron, which heavily invests in Kazakhstan's oil fields.

Military

Syrskyi: Situation on multiple frontline directions significantly deteriorated. Russian forces intensified offensives in Lyman and Bakhmut, attempting the Pokrovsk breakthrough with tanks and infantry. Russian troops occupy Bohdanivka in Bakhmut direction, Donetsk Oblast – Deep State analysts. The analysts reported that the Russian forces are advancing toward Chasiv Yar. As of 13 April 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• Personnel: 452760 (+1030)
• Tanks: 7169 (+23)
• APV: 13745 (+47)
• Artillery systems: 11518 (+32)
• MLRS: 1045 (+3)
• Anti-aircraft systems: 756 (+1)
• Aircraft: 347
• Helicopters: 325
• UAV: 9201 (+40)
• Cruise missiles: 2088 (+1)
• Warships/boats: 26
• Submarines: 1
• Vehicles and fuel tanks: 15396 (+57)

Intelligence and technology

ISW: Western air defenses vital for Ukraine's defense industry growth. Ukraine's ability to expand its domestic defense industry is also crucial for reducing its dependence on Western aid, particularly from the US, in the long term, according to the Institute for the Study of War. US Ambassador: US to sell Ukraine $ 138 mn worth of equipment to modernize air defense systems. This will support repairing Hawk missile systems that protect critical infrastructure from Russia's attacks on the energy grid and civilians. Ukrainian pilots begin training in France before F-16 transition. Ukrainian fighter pilots are undergoing initial training in France, with plans to transition to F-16 jet training, supported by a collaborative European effort to strengthen Ukraine's aerial capabilities against Russian aggression.

International

FT: US proposes debt to fund Ukraine using profits from Russian assets. The US hopes that the idea could generate tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine. Germany to transfer additional Patriot system to Ukraine to repel Russian attacks on infrastructure. Ukraine has been calling on its partners to provide more air defense systems to protect its critical facilities and people from Russian air assaults. Boosting mine clearance efforts: Ukraine receives 22 demining vehicles from Japan. The recent aid highlights Japan's solidarity with Ukraine amid Russia's ongoing war. US, UK announce new sanctions on Russian metal exports. The US and Britain announced an embargo on Russian-origin aluminum, copper, and nickel imports, the largest export product after energy resources, to reduce Russia's profits. Trump supports aid to Ukraine, but "in loan, not gift." Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Donald Trump indicated that Republicans could back additional Ukraine aid, though preferably as a "loan, not just a gift."

Humanitarian and social impact

50% of Ukrainians believe mobilization efforts going wrong – survey shows. 60% negatively assess the work of Territorial Recruitment Centers. Verkhovna Rada (55%) and TRCs (59%) are seen as most responsible.

Political and legal developments

European Council approves law introducing criminal penalties for sanctions violations amid Russia's weapons trade. The new law aims to strengthen enforcement measures against entities involved in circumventing restrictions. Read our earlier daily review here.