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Weekly Frontline Update: Russian debacle in Avdiivka. The Avdiivka offensive forces Russian troops to walk a mile in Ukrainian shoes. Like the Ukrainians during the counteroffensive on the southern front, the Russians have to wade through vast minefields under relentless artillery fire. |
| Why NATO deterrence doesn’t work. “Do you know what happens if a NATO member is attacked by Russia? It is expelled from the Alliance the following day” |
| UEFA’s Russian U-Turn shows public pressure works. Faced with a chorus of dissent, UEFA’s backpedaling on its Russian U-17 decision underscores the potency of united opposition. |
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Disintegrated Russia will be nuke-free, nations subjugated by Moscow decide. The post-imperial Russia disintegrated into 41 states will be nuke-free, nations subjugated by Moscow decided on their 8th meeting in Paris and London |
Military
General Staff: Ukraine repels over 20 Russian attacks near Avdiivka within 24 hours. Russia continues its offensive on the eastern front with no success.
Germany provides new military aid package to Ukraine. The German defense budget for the following years increase from $6 bl to $11 bl, which would be used “primarily for military assistance to Ukraine.”
More Gepard anti-aircraft guns shipped to Ukraine. The latest batch of German military aid includes self-propelled air defense systems that combat Russian drones.
Croatia transfers all its Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine as military aid. Croatia has provided all its Mi-8 helicopters to Ukraine as part of military assistance, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on 19 October during a meeting with Croatian Defense Minister Mario Banožić in Washington, according to the Pentagon’s website.
Frontline report: Russia’s Avdiivka offensive “not worth the losses,” Russian troop said. Ukrainian forces have blunted repeated Russian assaults on Avdiivka in heavy battles, destroying over 60 Russian armoured vehicles and causing unsustainable losses.
Ukrainian resistance strikes Russian looters in occupied Melitopol. Ukrainian partisans blew up a car, in which Russians were loading the loot from an empty apartment during another night hunt.
ISW: Ukrainian actions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast larger than before. As per a Russian milblogger, Ukrainian forces briefly gained a foothold in the village of Krynky before being pushed back by Russian troops, though the Ukrainians still hold parts of the village.
Russian losses.As of 20 Oct 2023, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:
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- Personnel: 292060 (+1380)
- Tanks: 5047 (+55)
- APV: 9557 (+120)
- Artillery systems: 7012 (+29)
- MLRS: 822 (+4)
- Anti-aircraft systems: 548
- Aircraft: 320
- Helicopters: 324
- UAV: 5326 (+8)
- Cruise missiles: 1535 (+1)
- Warships/boats: 20
- Submarines: 1
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 9370 (+33)
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Intelligence and technology
Estonia’s intel: Russia’s artillery shortage limits its offensive potential. Russia is running out of shells and can only fight a low-intensity war in Ukraine for another year.
British intel: Ukraine’s strikes at Berdiansk and Luhansk airfields reduce Russia’s capabilities at the front. Russia’s losses will likely have an impact on its army’s ability both to defend and conduct further offensive activity on this axis.
International
Biden asks Congress for $105 billion to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. In addition to funding for US allies, the US President is seeking congressional approval to support the security needs of the US southern border.
Biden to request “emergency aid budget” from Congress for Ukraine and Israel. The US President is asking Congress to support the “urgent budget request” for military aid to Ukraine, calling it a “smart investment” in American security.
Humanitarian and social impact
Russian missile kills a civilian in Zelenskyy’s hometown. Russia continues to multiply war crimes by bombing residential areas of Ukrainian cities.
New developments
Romania bolsters border defenses against Russian drones. Romania will deploy an advanced anti-drone system on its border with Ukraine following incidents in which wreckage from Russian drones targeting Ukraine crashed inside Romania.
Read our earlier daily review here.
