“On September 1, the enemy launched 4 missiles and 39 airstrikes, 42 MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. Unfortunately, the Russian terrorist attacks have killed and wounded civilians. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were damaged.
The likelihood of missiles and airstrikes across Ukraine remains high.
On September 1, there were 45 combat engagements.
- Volyn and Polissya axes: no significant changes.
- Sivershchyna and Slobozhanshchyna axes: the adversary fired mortars and artillery at more than 30 settlements, including Huta-Studenets’ka, Karpovychi (Chernihiv oblast), Chernats’ke, Sosnivka, Boyaro-Lezhachi, Kindrativka, Tur’ya, Popivka (Sumy oblast), Veterynarne, Pyl’na, Vovchans’k, Okhrimivka, Mala Vovcha, and Varvarivka (Kharkiv oblast).
- Kupiansk axis: the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinity of Novoselivs’ke (Luhansk oblast). The enemy launched an airstrike in the vicinity of Krokhmal’ne (Kharkiv oblast). The invaders fired artillery and mortars at more than 15 settlements, including Kam’yanka, Krasne Pershe, Dvorichna, Kup’yans’k, Kotlyarivka, and Novoserhiivka (Kharkiv oblast).
- Lyman axis: the adversary launched airstrikes in the vicinities of Novojehorivka and Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast). The enemy fired artillery at more than 15 settlements, including Makiivka, Nevske, Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast), Yampolivka, Sivers’k, Spirne, Vyimka, and Fedorivka, and Vesele (Donetsk oblast).
- Bakhmut axis: the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinity of Kurdyumivka (Donetsk oblast). The invaders launched airstrikes in the vicinities of Stupochky, Bila Hora, and New York (Donetsk oblast). More than 20 settlements, including Min’kivka, Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Dyliivka, Druzhba, and New York (Donetsk oblast), suffered from enemy artillery shelling.
- Avdiivka axis: the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinity of Sjeverne (Donetsk oblast). The enemy fired artillery and mortars at the settlements of Novokalynove, Avdiivka, Pervomais’ke, Halytsynivka, and Memryk (Donetsk oblast).
- Marinka axis: the adversary conducted unsuccessful offensives in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka (Donetsk oblast). The invaders fired artillery at more than 10 settlements, including Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove, Pobjeda, Kostiantynivka, and Yelyzavetivka (Donetsk oblast).
- Shakhtarske axis: the adversary launched an airstrike in the vicinity of Staromaiors’ke (Donetsk oblast). More than 15 settlements, including Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva, Blahodatne, Rivnopil’, Novosilka, and Zelene Pole (Donetsk oblast), suffered from artillery shelling.
- Zaporizhzhia axis: the adversary launched an airstrike in the vicinity of Malynivka (Zaporizhzhia oblast). The adversary fired artillery at more than 20 settlements, including Ol’hivs’ke, Huliaipilske, Chervona Krynytsya, Robotyne, Shcherbaky, Stepove (Zaporizhzhia oblast), and Nikopol’ (Dnipropetrovsk oblast).
- Kherson axis: the enemy shelled more than 10 settlements, including Dudchany, Beryslav, Tyahynka, Kherson, Veletens’ke, and Ol’hivka (Kherson oblast).
Between August 15 and 30, representatives of the Russian occupation administrations conducted a campaign in the temporarily occupied settlement of Volnovakha (Donetsk oblast) and other settlements of Volnovakha district. They were forcing the locals to have their school-age children study in educational institutions under the Russian curriculum and to participate in elections and vote for candidates from the United Russia Party. Representatives of district education departments, accompanied by the Russian FSB, visit families who refuse to send their children to educational institutions. They caution the families about compliance with Russian laws on compulsory secondary education. Reports on improper performance of parental duties were drawn up against the parents. According to the information available, with three such reports drawn up, the parents will be deprived of parental rights, and the children will be placed under the care of social services in orphanages in Russia.
On September 1, the Ukrainian Air Force launched 6 airstrikes on the concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, as well as 5 airstrikes on the anti-aircraft missile systems of the adversary.
On September 1, the Ukrainian missile and artillery troops hit 4 concentrations of troops, weapons, and military equipment, 10 artillery systems at their firing positions, 2 command posts, 3 ammunition depots, and 1 radar station of the adversary.“
Military updates
Russians claim Ukraine tried to attack Crimean Bridge again, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Russian Defence Ministry. “The Russian Ministry of Defence has alleged that a Ukrainian sea drone tried to attack the Crimean Bridge but was destroyed in the Black Sea. At about 23:15 Moscow time on 1 September, the Kyiv regime attempted to launch a “terrorist strike” on the Crimean Bridge using a semi-submersible unmanned vessel. A Ukrainian sea drone was promptly discovered and destroyed in the Black Sea. The Crimean Bridge was temporarily closed to road traffic from 00:00 onwards.” Ukrainian Armed Forces exhaust Russians near Robotyne to break through 1st line of defence – Estonian Intelligence, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Estonian intelligence report quoted by ERR. “The intelligence centre of the Estonian Defence Forces notes that the most important contact-line events are currently unfolding on the outskirts of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, south of which the Russian military is barely holding its position. The Estonian military assumes that the Ukrainian Defence Forces were able to break through the positions of the Russian army on the contact line; fighting continues with the troops of the first defence line near Novoprokopivka and Verbove. As Estonian intelligence reports, the Russians are barely holding their ground. In an attempt to stabilise the situation, the Russian Armed Forces transferred parts of the 76th Guards Airborne Assault Division from Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, and an assault brigade from the Bakhmut front to this area. These circumstances probably indicate that the Russians do not have operational reserves.In addition, as the intelligence agency emphasised, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could sufficiently exhaust the Russian units holding the defence in Zaporizhzhia Oblast to break through their positions. Ukrainian troops have created the prerequisites for tactical success - a breakthrough in the first defence line of the Russian Armed Forces. However, Estonian intelligence believes that it will be very difficult for Ukraine’s Armed Forces to achieve results at the operational level by cutting the land corridor to Crimea. Russian occupiers continue to attack on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. The Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out attacks near Bakhmut with minimal success, Estonian intelligence added.” Breaking through first line of defence is not yet victory, Censor.net reports, citing RBC-Ukraine quoting Natalia Humeniuk, head of the joint coordination, press center of the Southern Défense Forces. “It cannot be claimed that the breakthrough of the first line of defence of the Russians in the south is a final victory, after which there will be no resistance. The enemy has a place to retreat and a place to entrench. It cannot be said that passing the first stage is the biggest victory and it will be easier in the future. We are ready for the fact that the further sections will also be difficult, she noted. She said that after the soldiers knock out the Russians from certain positions, the latter have a place to retreat and entrench themselves. Therefore, the counter-battery fight of the Armed Forces is carried out in several stages: first, the elimination of the Russians from the closest positions; then - strikes in the deep rear of the enemy with the aim of destroying his infrastructure.” https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1697534807834517964 On the night of September 1, 2023, the enemy struck with Kalibr cruise missiles, the Ukrainian General Staff reports. “The launch of two missiles from the Black Sea (Feodosia region) was recorded. One rocket was destroyed, the other hit one of the private enterprises in Vinnytsia region. Property, private cars were damaged, assistance is provided to the victims.” According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):Ukrainian Army repels Russian attacks in 5 sectors on the eastern front, Ukraine's General Staff reports
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 1, 2023
Russia conducted offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, Mariyinka, Shakhtarsk, and Kupiansk sectors, according to the GenStaff.https://t.co/yUlD5aYKEp
- Ukrainian Forces continue to take offensive action on the Orikhiv axis in southern Ukraine, with units reaching the first Russian main defensive line. Russian forces, primarily composed of the 58 Combined Arms Army and Russian Airborne Forces elements, seek to halt the Ukrainian counter-offensive whilst maintaining their own offensive on the northern axis around Kupiansk.
- Russian forces are likely seeking to distract Ukraine from its counter-offensive, thereby forcing it to divide its forces between Orikhiv and Kupiansk. Given that Russia has made modest gains near Kupiansk since the Ukrainian counter-offensive began in June, they are highly likely seeking to capitalise on these by continuing to resource the axis. However, Russia risks dividing its forces as it seeks to prevent a Ukrainian breakthrough.
- The Kerch Strait is a bottleneck for military logistics support to Russian forces in occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia is heavily reliant on the Crimean bridge and ferries to cross the Straits.
- Russia is employing a range of passive defences such as smoke generators and underwater barriers, alongside active defence measures such as air defence systems, to strengthen the survivability of water crossings and minimise damage from future attacks. The bridge's importance for both logistics and symbolism of Russian occupation mandates these extensive protection measures.
- As of 29 August 2023, imagery confirms Russia has created an underwater barrier of submerged ships and containment booms to deter against Uncrewed Surface Vehicle (USV) attacks against the Crimean Bridge. At the southern part of the bridge, this includes several vessels 160 metres apart. These are located at the same place as the Ukrainian "Sea Baby" USV attacks on 17 July 2023.
- Previously, in September 2022, the Russian Navy briefly trialled radar decoys on barges for several days, likely to deter radar seeking missiles. Other countermeasures to protect the bridge include the use of TDA-3 truck-mounted smoke generators, with an exercise conducted on 24 May 2023. This smoke was activated to deter incoming air threats on 12 August 2023.
Russian soldiers who refuse to fight are starved and kept in pit, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine. “The Russian occupiers in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast are keeping their own soldiers in a pit without food because they refused to fight. At the end of August of this year, near the settlement of Pokrovske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Russian police are keeping more than 50 Russian soldiers in a so-called zindan (a deep dug pit) for their refusal to participate in combat actions. They are fed with meagre rations only once a day. Maliar noted that the Russians are using similar deep pits as "prisons" throughout the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine for punishing locals detained for violating curfew or for any other far-fetched reason. She added that the mobilised soldiers are arriving in the occupied city of Donetsk en masse; most of them are labour migrants from former Soviet republics who went to Russia to earn money and obtained Russian passports. These people state that they were basically taken to the territory of Ukraine by force, under escort. At the moment, they are being held under guard in the houses, whose owners have been deported to Russia. Maliar added that the rations received by the conscripts are almost over, and no other food supply is provided until their arrival at combat units. Moreover, the Russian occupying administrations of the Svatove district in Luhansk Oblast were informed that in September 2023, the food supply for the personnel of the units deployed in the territory of this district will be stopped.”Russia's estimated losses in its all-out war against Ukraine as of 2 September 2023, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/HxJIK01wHQ
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 2, 2023
Humanitarian
As of today, 16,976 children considered found in Ukraine, Ukrinform reports, citing the Office of the Ombudsman of Ukraine. “A total of 16,976 children have been found in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war. According to the state portal for the search for children 'Children of War', as of September 1, 2023, 1,165 children are considered missing in Ukraine, and 16,976 children are found, the press service said.”Ukrainians will receive $232M from the World Bank for urgent home repairs, Ukraine Business News reports. “These funds will reimburse the costs of repairs for 98,000 individual houses and 8,000 families in 160 apartment buildings from five regions that were affected by the Russian Federation’s invasion, the World Bank said. $70M of this is a loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, secured by a guarantee from the Japanese government, and $162.5M is a grant from the multilateral donor Trust Fund for the Support of Reconstruction and Reform of Ukraine. It is noted that additional financing of up to $800M is expected later from the World Bank and partners in the form of credit guarantees, grants, and other contributions. The project will help thousands of Ukrainian families and support the government in laying the foundation for a sustainable, inclusive, and green recovery. The organization noted that The WB supports Ukraine on its way to restoring housing and other urban infrastructure.” Compensation for the transit of Ukrainian grain to Baltic ports will cost €600M: conditions have been put forward, Ukraine Business News reports. “The European Commission still does not have a clear decision on whether the grain embargo on several Ukrainian agricultural products will continue, European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski said. If this ban is not extended, we will have problems, he said. In his opinion, to prevent a possible crisis in the EU grain market, it is necessary to maintain the embargo and subsidize the transit of Ukrainian grain to Baltic ports at €30 per ton. The total compensation will come from the EU budget and amount to €600M. The condition for its allocation will be Ukraine’s obligation to find a recipient for its goods in third countries, Wojciechowski explained. According to him, Ukrainian grain settles in Europe because the cost of transportation through Baltic ports to third countries is too high. As a result, these countries buy cheaper Russian grain. Therefore, the EU’s aid to Ukraine as a subsidy is the best solution now.”A Russian-speaking man attacked a group of Ukrainian children in Germany because they spoke Ukrainian, according to Die Welt
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 1, 2023
The man grabbed a 10-year-old boy & threw him into the canal. The boy injured his head and leg. The man ran away.https://t.co/ckSxUdx1W9
Environmental
ZNPP operated in violation of safety principles, Ukrinform reports, citing the acting head of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate Oleh Korikov. “Russians are using Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) in violation of safety rules. ZNPP is operated in violation of internationally recognized safety principles and in violation of the license terms, Korikov said. He emphasized that the power units have not been put into a "cold" state and maintenance and repairs are not carried out on time. Part of the territory is mined. In addition, the online transmission of radiation monitoring data from ZNPP industrial site has not been restored. This complicates the response to a possible radiation accident. The emergency preparedness and response system remain degraded. Korikov called for isolating Russia both through sanctions and exclusion from international organizations, including the IAEA. As reported, ZNPP has been under occupation since March 4, 2022. During this time, the Russians have repeatedly violated the principles of nuclear safety by deploying military equipment on the territory of ZNPP, mining the territory and terrorizing the plant's personnel.”Legal
High school students without Russian citizenship are not allowed into school in occupied territories, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the National Resistance Center, “Russian-imposed authorities in Ukraine's temporarily occupied territories have been refusing to allow high school students who do not hold Russian passports to attend classes. In a number of settlements in the temporarily occupied territories, there are cases of high school students who did not obtain a Russian passport being temporarily refused admittance to schools run by the occupation authorities. Schools in Kherson Oblast handed over lists of the students who do not hold Russian passports to the local occupation authorities. The students now have 10 days to "rectify the situation". Only then will they be allowed to take part in lessons. In addition, the Russians in the occupied territory issued school stationery only to those children whose parents have Russian citizenship.”EU condemns Russian sham elections in Ukraine's occupied territories, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano has condemned the sham "elections" being held by Russia in the occupied territories of Ukraine. Russia has started early voting in its illegal so-called 'elections' in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. This is a further massive violation of international law and Ukraine's sovereignty, Stano tweeted. Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk are all Ukraine! Those involved [in the fake elections – ed.] will be held to account, he added.”11 Ukrainian children freed from Russian captivity in Kherson Oblast, the Kherson Oblast Administration reportshttps://t.co/dZRiRRCkLg
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 1, 2023
Support
US to send depleted-uranium munitions to Ukraine, Reuters reports. “The Biden administration will for the first time send controversial armour-piercing munitions containing depleted uranium to Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters and separately confirmed by two US officials. The rounds, which could help destroy Russian tanks, are part of a new military aid package for Ukraine set to be unveiled in the next week. The munitions can be fired from US Abrams tanks that, according to a person familiar with the matter, are expected be delivered to Ukraine in the coming weeks. […] Although Britain sent depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine earlier this year, this would be the first US shipment of the ammunition and will likely stir controversy. It follows an earlier decision by the Biden administration to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, despite concerns over the dangers such weapons pose to civilians.” Pentagon ordered AMRAAM missiles for Ukraine, Censor.net reports, citing Pentagon's website. “The US Department of Defence has ordered Raytheon to produce advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles AMRAAM for Ukraine. The US company Raytheon Missiles and Defence (Arizona) will purchase advanced AMRAAM missiles from various sources worth $192 million. The dates of delivery and the number of missiles to be purchased are not disclosed. It is planned to do so by 29 November 2024. Funds for the purchase of missiles are allocated from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative fund.” Aviation coalition now includes 14 countries, each making contribution, Ukrinform reports. “The aviation coalition for the provision of fighter jets to Ukraine includes 14 countries and each will make its contribution. Some states have not yet had time to publicly declare their participation. However, each of the 14 participants will make a contribution, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Ihor Zhovkva told Ukrinform in an interview. […] However, according to him, there are certain procedures, because, for example, the F-16 is an American-made aircraft, and the United States should give permission to each of the countries to supply them or even to use them for training. Zhovkva said that the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway had announced a specific number of F-16 aircraft, some countries had announced pilot training, adding that Ukraine asked not only for F-16s. Thus, he noted that during the visit to Sweden [the President's visit took place on August 19], the provision of Gripen aircraft was discussed with the Swedish Prime Minister and with all the leaders of the parliamentary parties. We understand that Sweden is not yet NATO member and for now it has to bear full responsibility for its own security. But we are aware that Sweden will become NATO member very soon. […] When Sweden becomes a full-fledged NATO member, then the issue of aircraft will move faster, the deputy head of the President’s Office believes.” US not running out of munitions due to Ukraine aid, Pentagon Acquisition Boss Says, Air and Space Forces Magazine reports. “Despite sending more than $43 billion in military aid to Ukraine—both lethal and non-lethal—the US is not “running out” of any particular munitions or equipment needed for its own forces, Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante told attendees at a defense conference in Washington, D.C. […] In the papers, sometimes, it says, we’ve run out of X or Y, because of aid to Ukraine, but that’s not true, LaPLante said. We’re managing all of that, he added, describing the process to identify items for Ukraine that are excess to US military needs. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs review the lists of what’s being offered and what’s being requested, and they look exactly at the effect on readiness of providing those items, LaPlante said. If they feel there’s a negative effect, or if handing off a certain weapon or quantity of weapons increases risk beyond an acceptable level, we won’t do it, he said, although he didn’t cite any examples of equipment withheld. There have been concerns in Congress that providing large quantities of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine is emptying US stocks, but LaPlante said there are enough on hand and has previously said his organization is working to shorten lead times for replenishment orders. The real challenge has been to not simply provide equipment as requested, but to anticipate what Ukraine will need and have it moving through the pipeline so it arrives in a timely manner, LaPlante noted. For example, Ukraine needed different military equipment for its ongoing counteroffensive than in the early days of the conflict, when it was focused on holding ground and repelling advances. Since then, it’s been an effort of matching provision of gear to the consumption rate, LaPLante said, and in some cases such as artillery, those rates approximate the consumption in World War II. […] More broadly, LaPlante said there has been a mindset change in the US defense industrial base as a result of the Ukraine war. In the past, US stockpiles were geared toward short conflicts and not surges. That’s changed as think tanks and Pentagon wargamers expand the timescale of their exercises, to see what would happen if a conflict didn’t last a few weeks but a year or more, he said. When the timelines are extended, it usually leads to a shortage of precision guided munitions, especially at an intense level of effort, he said. Although this has shown up in some previous wargames,“we didn’t budget to it, LaPLante said, and he acknowledged that munitions have frequently been the account that gets cut when budgets tighten. Moreover, during the 20 years the US was fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, there was a tendency to produce the minimum of high-end weapons needed for peer conflict. The push now is to do more multiyear procurements, and LaPlante said that shows industry they can safely invest in expanding capacity. […] A new wrinkle in the aid to Ukraine will be sustainment, LaPlante said. The M1 Abrams tanks being provided to Ukraine won’t work in a few weeks if they don’t undergo certain kinds of maintenance. The US can’t put its own troops on the battlefield and doesn’t want to expose contractors to that risk either, so LaPlante said the US is increasingly turning to “tele-maintenance,” wherein contractors or Army personnel walk Ukrainian maintainers through the process remotely. What’s being learned is applicable to how the US may sustain equipment in future conflicts, as tele-maintenance will make it possible to reduce the forward footprint of troops and contractors. All in all, LaPlante said the defense enterprise has done a “remarkable” job in streamlining processes to get Ukraine the gear it needs in a timely manner. Configuring the M1 tanks in a way that was acceptable to the Army—removing some gear considered too sensitive to risk Russia gaining access to it—normally takes a year and a half, LaPlante said, but the Army managed it in six months.” BAE Systems signs cooperation agreement with Ukraine on localizing weapons production, Ukrinform reports, citing the Presidential Office. “In Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky met with representatives of BAE Systems, a multinational company operating in the arms, security and aerospace sectors. […] The President noted that the weapons manufactured by BAE Systems, in particular L119 and M777 artillery systems, CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, are already actively operating in Ukraine, helping to bring victory in the confrontation with the Russian aggressor closer and receiving extremely positive feedback from the Ukrainian military. According to him, Ukraine seeks to be a co-creator of a new effective system of European and global security, which is impossible without a powerful defence industry, for which the state wants to attract leading defence companies from allied countries. Following the meeting, in the presence of the President and CEO of BAE Systems, the Ministry of Strategic Industries of Ukraine and BAE Systems signed a cooperation agreement on localization of BAE Systems arms production. A Framework Agreement was also signed between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and BAE Systems on cooperation in the repair, spare parts, and production of new L119 light guns.”"There is no force that can destroy our freedom and independence. Ukraine continues to fight. Our warriors continue to fight. Step by step, we are bringing victory closer. We are proud of all our defenders," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy https://t.co/NXrYwGFUk4 pic.twitter.com/qTJHSGv3S8
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 1, 2023
New developments
- Russians claim they put Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system on combat duty, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Russian Kremlin-aligned news agency Interfax and Latvian-based Russian media outlet Meduza. “Yury Borisov, head of Russian Roscosmos, claimed that the Sarmat strategic missile system was put on combat duty. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced its deployment on 23 February 2023. The Russian Ministry of Defence announced the first successful tests of Sarmat in April 2022. However, on 20 February 2023, when US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv, the Russians conducted an unsuccessful test of the Sarmat missile. Sarmat is a Russian strategic missile system with an intercontinental ballistic missile. The Russians are convinced, that due to its characteristics, it is able to overcome all modern missile defence systems and is considered to be the weapon with the largest range in the world. According to official Russian data, the Sarmat missile has a range of more than 11,000 kilometres and can carry a warhead weighing 100 tonnes.”
- Lithuanian Foreign Minister warns international society against appeasing Putin at cost of Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has called unacceptable the scenarios in which Ukraine would have to negotiate a truce and the Kremlin would gain some benefits from the aggression. Landsbergis noted that if Russia were to obtain a ceasefire in the near future, Putin could call it a victory, and in practice, it would also mean that the aggressor had won, and the world had accepted it. You can call it a 'new reality' if you want, but this new reality would be horrible and we cannot allow it to happen. We should choose to make the aggressor lose. Landsbergis' statement is clearly a response to the public debate in the West that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is progressing very slowly and that Ukraine's intentions to return all the occupied territories look unrealistic. Before that, he said that the West should openly set a goal of Ukraine's victory in the war, rather than talking about support for as long as it takes.”
- Targets 1,500 km away in Russia are no problem now – Ukraine's Security Council Secretary, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Ukrainian Radio. “Ukraine has been working on its own missile programme and drones for a long time now, so hitting targets in Russian territory, even if they are located 1,500 km away, is no longer a problem, says Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council. […] Danilov stressed, however, that Ukraine only attacks military facilities of the Russian Federation. The bombing of oil refineries or other facilities is the work of Russian partisans whom Ukraine does not control. We attack either factories or military production, i.e. the components that are killing our children. We must put an end to this, Danilov concluded.”
- White House reacts to increase in number of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Voice of America quoting John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council in the White House. “The White House has reacted to the increase in the number of Ukrainian strikes on targets located on the territory of the Russian Federation far from the border of Ukraine. Asked about the US reaction to increasingly frequent attacks on facilities in the Russian Federation, Kirby emphasised that Washington's policy remains unchanged. Nothing has changed in our policy on strikes against Russia, we neither encourage nor facilitate them. We are focused on enabling Ukraine to regain its territory on its own soil, the White House representative said.”
- Russia's Putin says he will meet China's Xi soon, Reuters reports. “Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping soon, following earlier reports that he planned to visit China in October. Russia has turned increasingly to China as its most powerful ally since alienating the West last year with its decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, what it calls a "special military operation". China has declined to blame Moscow for the war and condemned Western sanctions on Russia, even as it has profited by securing discounts for oil and gas that Russia can no longer sell to Europe.”
- China supports territorial integrity of Ukraine but does not want defeat of Russian Federation in war, - Budanov, Censor.net reports. “China does not want Russia to be defeated militarily, but supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity.The head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said this in an interview with TSN. […] For China, it is Russia's military defeat that is bad. In a big strategic game, they think they will be left one-on-one with their opponents, and they don't want that, he said. Budanov also noted that at the same time, China supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine and speaks about it. This means a lot, the official statements there are serious. They need a configuration in which Russia does not suffer an open defeat, but it is also desirable that Ukraine regains its sovereignty. But I emphasise - it is desirable, Budanov said, adding that if China helped Russia, it would not have any problems with weapons.”
- Russia to block G20 declaration if its views are ignored, Lavrov says, Reuters reports. “Russia will block the final declaration of this month's G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow's position on Ukraine and other crises, leaving participants to issue a non-binding or partial communique, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday.”
- Kremlin confirms date of meeting between Putin and Erdoğan, European Pravda reports, citing Interfax. “The Kremlin has confirmed that the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will take place in Sochi on September 4. The negotiations will take place in Sochi, on Monday. […] This meeting marks a rare visit to Russia by the leader of a NATO member country during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ankara has not yet officially confirmed the date of the meeting. It is expected that during the meeting, Türkiye will emphasise the need to resume the Black Sea Grain initiative, from which Moscow unilaterally withdrew in July. Additionally, Erdoğan is concerned about bilateral issues, such as natural gas imports from Russia.”
- Ukraine lists PepsiCo and Mars as international sponsors of war, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the National Agency on Corruption Prevention. “National Agency on Corruption Prevention has added American companies PepsiCo and Mars to the list of international war sponsors. Despite the declaration of reduction of their business, cessation of advertising activities and production of their products, these companies continue to work in Russia, paying taxes and supporting Russia's economy.”
The NATO chief says Ukrainians have repeatedly exceeded expectations during the ongoing all-out war with Russia. Now, they are steadily advancing in the southern counteroffensive, breaking through formidable Russian defenses and minefields.https://t.co/GnB5pE6xGL
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) August 31, 2023
Assessment
- On the War
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
- The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment, ahead of a previously reported intended deployment date of December 2023.
- Additional Russian lateral redeployments and the immediate commitment of intended operational reserves suggest that short term reinforcement needs are impeding intended long-term reconstitution efforts.
- Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky continues to highlight the impact of the lack of Russian counter-battery capabilities on Russian morale in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area.
- Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast and made some advances on September 1.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed gains.
- Russian occupation officials announced on September 1 that voting began for the Russian regional elections held in occupied Ukraine and will continue in various forms through September 10.
- Russian officials continue efforts to forcibly indoctrinate Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and identity by integrating schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system.“ (unquote)
Russia will want revenge after losing the war, this may happen in 10 years, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in an interview with TSN . “Russia will need about 10 years to recover in terms of military capabilities. Exactly 10 years is a normal period for rethinking all this. And to start preparing for revenge again. We will definitely have 10 years, and if we manage to influence the territories that will be created in other ways after the victory of Ukraine, let's say, maybe we will have much more, but we will have at least 10 years. […] NATO's military committee also emphasised that Russia will remain a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance, even if its troops are defeated in Ukraine.” Attack on Pskov air base launched from Russia’s territory, Ukrinform reports. “The Russian air base "Kresty" in Pskov was attacked by drones launched from the territory of Russia. We work from the territory of Russia, Head of the [Defence Intelligence of Ukraine], Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone. Budanov did not specify the number and type of combat drones used. Nor did the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence say who exactly carried out the attack – Ukrainian intelligence agents or partisans supervised by the Ukrainian special service. At the same time, Budanov confirmed that four Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft were struck as a result of the attack. Two were destroyed and two were seriously damaged, he noted. According to him, these aircraft were targeted specifically because the Russian Federation used them to transport military cargo and airborne personnel. Budanov revealed some details of the strike: the fuel tanks and an important part of a wing spar, located in the upper part of IL-76, were targeted. As reported, on the night of Wednesday, August 30, drones attacked a military airfield in Pskov region, destroying four Russian Il-76 transport aircraft.” ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence allies link a Russian hacking group to an attack on Ukraine’s battlefield devices, The New York Times reports. “The United States and its allies said on Thursday that Russian hackers were behind a malware attack used to penetrate Ukrainian battlefield mobile computing devices. On Aug. 8, one of Ukraine’s intelligence service, the S.B.U., announced that some of its mobile devices used on the battlefield had been infected with Russian-designed malware. The attack, Ukrainian officials said, was designed to damage the military command system. Ukrainian officials said that the capture of some of their devices had allowed hacking groups to develop a malware that could spread to other mobile devices with stolen security keys. The penetration of mobile computing devices used to command and control battlefront forces is considered serious. But it is not clear how much information the hackers were able to take before the malware was discovered and removed. On Thursday, the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, said the malware, called Infamous Chisel, had been used by a hacking group known as Sandworm, which US and Ukrainian officials have identified as being affiliated with the Russian military intelligence service, the G.R.U. In its announcement, the US agency said the malware had provided backdoor access to Android devices, periodically scanned files on the computers and then exfiltrated the information from the infected devices. The US agency made the announcement as a part of a joint report with the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing coalition formalized during the Cold War and composed of Australia, Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. In a statement, Eric Goldstein, CISA’s executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said the announcement was part of longstanding effort to call out Russian actors who have engaged in a range of malicious cyberactivity targeting US and allied partners for cyberespionage and potential disruptive actions.”Russia delivered the first nuclear warheads to Belarus "a few days ago," according to Ukraine's spy chief.https://t.co/LB3CeWgrH9
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 1, 2023
Consequences and what to do?
Ukraine’s accession to the EU will affect the bloc’s budget and agricultural policy, Ukraine Business News reports. “The prospect of Ukraine joining the EU poses new challenges for the bloc, writes The Guardian. The EU budget is €185B, and Germany, France, and Italy make the largest contributions. The entry of new members is likely to increase the contributions from each country. The second issue is the size of the European Parliament. With its population, Ukraine could claim 50-60 MEPs. There may be several options: remove Britain’s quota, expand the parliament, or reduce the number of MEPs from other countries – which carries risk as being potentially unpopular. However, one of the biggest tasks for officials in Brussels will be reforms to the common agricultural policy if Ukraine becomes a member. A shock to the system is already being felt in Poland and other neighbouring countries that have introduced embargoes. The prospect of Ukraine’s accession will provoke negotiations and spur the debate that has been going on for years on the EU’s common agricultural policy.” Despite sending more than $43 billion in both lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine the US is not running out of any particular munitions or equipment needed for its own forces, Pentagon acquisition and sustainment chief William LaPlante says. His message addresses US audience concerns over the potential impact of its substantial defence support to Ukraine as the defence industries are struggling to tamp up production. The message does little to alleviate Ukrainian concerns. LaPlante stresses that the US will not put US military readiness at risk. If the US Department of Defense or Joint Chiefs of Staff feel that defence support will have a negative effect, or if handing off a certain weapon or quantity of weapons increases risk beyond an acceptable level, the US will not supply Ukraine with the weapons or ammunition it needs. The problem is that failure to support Ukraine means the failure to deter aggression elsewhere. US and European support for Ukraine reflects their ability to respond to emerging security challenges. Western strategic messaging is constructed around the notion that the inflow of weapons and ammunition is constantly adjusted to the situation on the battlefield. The only problem with the narrative, however, is that it is not true.| 2022 | Weapons and ammunition | Military situation |
| February | Javelins, Stinger and Mistral | Russia attempted “Blitzkrieg” and maritime blockade of Ukraine |
| March | Starstreak and MILAN | |
| April | M777 Howitzers | Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine |
| May | Brimstone, Harpoons and CAESAR howitzers | |
| June | HIMARS, M270s, 155mm PzH 2000 and 155mm AHS Krabs | |
| July | HARM and M113 | |
| August | ||
| September | Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia launch attack on Ukrainian energy sector. | |
| October | IRIS-T | |
| November | NASAMS and Crotale | |
| December | Battle for Soledar and Bakhmut. “Stalemate” and Force Generation | |
| 2023 | ||
| January | ||
| February | Leopard 2 and Hawk | |
| March | GLSDB, JDAM-ER, Marder IFV, Challenger 2, AMX-10 RC and Stryker | |
| April | Patriot | |
| May | SAMP-T, Storm Shadow and 155mm "Paladin" M109A6 | |
| June | CV90 | Ukrainian counteroffensive. Strikes in Russia’s deep rear (missiles, drones, partisan and SOF). Wagner rebellion. |
| July | SCALP and US cluster ammunition | |
| August | Leopard 1 | |
| September | Abram tanks |
