Situation around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, DOnetsk Oblast, as of 21 March 2023. Map: liveuamap.com
In its Russian offensive campaign assessment, the US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that Russia’s recent marginal gains in and around Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, along with their increased tempo of operations around Avdiivka, are likely part of their effort to secure even small victories before they lose the initiative in Ukraine. ISW believes that Ukraine is unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut and/or Avdiivka despite Russian advances at this time.
Russian forces made marginal gains in and around Bakhmut amid a reported increase in the tempo of Russian operations around Avdiivka. Russian forces likely made additional gains in southwestern and northern Bakhmut as well as northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove as of March 20 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8).
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that Russian troops attacked toward Berdychi (10km northwest of Avdiivka), which indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Krasnohorivka (9km north of Avdiivka) and captured Stepove (just west of Krasnohorivka).
Russian spring offensive in Donbas likely approaching culmination – ISW
Russian forces are likely increasing the tempo of operations north of Avdiivka in an effort to set conditions for the encirclement of the settlement and are reportedly employing a greater number of aviation units in the area to support these operations.
Avdiivka Mayor Vitaly Barabash told AFP News on March 20 that Russian forces are increasingly using Kh-59, Kh-101, Kh-555, and S-300 missiles in the Avdiivka area.
A Ukrainian military spokesperson stated on March 20 that Russian forces have lost about three unspecified companies (likely referring to infantry) in assaults on Avdiivka since March 19.
ISW previously reported that this increased tempo of Russian operations in the Avdiivka area has reportedly led to major losses and is likely a misguided effort to pull Ukrainian forces away from other areas of the front.
ISW has not observed Russian forces arraying substantial combat power along the outskirts of Donetsk City, and it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to sustain this temporary increased tempo.
Tags: Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast