A representative survey commissioned by the Munich Security Conference for its annual report found that the vast majority of Ukrainians would keep fighting the Russian invasion even in the event of a nuclear strike and see Crimea as indispensablehttps://t.co/c75aCZu9Y5
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 11, 2023
Daily overview — Summary report, February 12
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 12/02/23. pic.twitter.com/PbrRshUXto
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) February 12, 2023
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 18.00 pm, February 12, 2023 is in the dropdown menu below:


- Volyn, Polissya, Sivershchyna, and Slobozhanshchyna axes: there were no significant changes, and no signs of the formation of offensive groups were detected. Areas of more than 20 settlements were subjected to enemy shelling. Among them are Senkivka, Chernihiv Oblast; Novovasylivka, Porokhon’, Studenok, Starykove and Volfine in Sumy Oblast and Krasne, Hlyboke, Synelnikove, Vovchansk, Figolivka, Novomlynsk and Dvorichna in Kharkiv Oblast. The occupiers also carried out airstrikes on the towns of Gatyshe and Vovchansk.
- Kupiansk and Lyman axes: Russian forces carried out mortar and artillery attacks on more than 25 areas of populated areas. In particular, these are Hryanykivka, Novoyehorivka, Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Tabaivka, and Berestove in the Kharkiv Oblast, and Stelmakhivka, Vyshneve, Chervonopivka, and Serebryansk forestry in the Luhansk Oblast. He carried out airstrikes near Chervonopivka, Zhitlivka and Dibrova in Luhansk Oblast and Hryhorivka and Spirne in Donetsk Oblast.
- Bakhmut axis: tank, mortar and artillery shelling occurred in the areas of Spirne, Berestove, Vasyukivka, Zaliznianske, Krasna Gora, Paraskoviivka, Chasiv Yar, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Predtechine, Bila Gora and Zalizne settlements of Donetsk Oblast. In total, there are more than 25 settlements.

- Avdiivka and Novopavlivka axes: areas of 25 settlements were hit by tank, mortar and artillery attacks, in particular, Kalinove, Orlivka, Severne, Avdiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Zolota Niva, Neskuchne, Vremivka and Novosilka. Enemy airstrikes were recorded near Avdiivka, Vesely, Nevel’ske and Mariinka.

- Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Vremivka and Novopil in the Donetsk Oblast and Malynivka, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Mala Tokmachka, Magdalynivka and Stepnohirsk were damaged by fire. Russian forces also carried out airstrikes in the areas of Mala Tokmachka and Kamianske.

- Kherson axis: the suburbs and Kherson itself were affected by enemy artillery fire, as well as the districts of more than 30 other settlements, including Havrylivka, Mylové, Chervonyi Mayak, Novoberislav, Berislav, Burgunka, Prydniprovske, and Stanislav of the Kherson Oblast. Russian forces carried out an airstrike in the area of Zimivnyk.
Military Updates

Russia may try to divert Ukrainian forces from the Donbas region by opening a new front, according to New York Times
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 11, 2023
Attacking from a new front would likely mean advancing toward the northeastern city of Sumy or the 2nd-largest city of Ukraine Kharkiv.https://t.co/lvoGWqMGxi
- Over the past two weeks, Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of the invasion of Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian General Staff release daily statistics on Russian casualties. Although Defence Intelligence cannot verify Ukraine’s methodology, the trends the data illustrate are likely accurate. The mean average for the last seven days was 824 casualties per day, over four times the rate reported over June-July 2022. Ukraine also continues to suffer a high attrition rate.
- The uptick in Russian casualties is likely due to a range of factors including a lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front – this is exemplified in Vuhledar and Bakhmut.
- On 09 February 2023, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that Wagner had halted its prisoner recruitment scheme.
- Data from the Russian Federal Penal Service had already suggested a drop-off in the rate of prisoner recruitment since December 2022. News of the harsh realities of Wagner service in Ukraine has probably filtered through to inmates and reduced the number of volunteers. However, a key factor in the termination of the scheme is likely increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Wagner.
- In addition, the regular Russian military has likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilisation’. The Russian leadership faces the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces, scale back objectives, or conduct a further form of mobilisation.
Losses of the Russian army
As of Sunday 12 February, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:- Personnel – about 137780 (+900),
- Tanks – 3280 (+13),
- Armoured combat vehicles – 6488 (+14),
- Artillery systems – 2287 (+17),
- Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS - 465 (+2),
- Air defence means – 234 (+0),
- Aircraft - 296 (+1),
- Helicopters - 286 (+0),
- Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 5148 (+14),
- Vessels/boats - 18 (+0),
- UAV operational and tactical level – 2007 (+10),
- Special equipment – 215 (+1),
- Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
- Cruise missiles – 857 (+0)

Humanitarian
Emergency shutdowns applied in Kharkiv Oblast due to Russian attack, consumption restrictions in four Oblasts, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of Ukrenergo. “After another attack by Russia, which included the use of drones and missiles, the situation in Ukraine's power system remains difficult but controlled, and emergency shutdowns were applied in Kharkiv Oblast due to damage to power facilities. In Kharkiv, emergency shutdowns were applied due to damage to power facilities. Also, due to network restrictions that were introduced after Russia damaged the objects of the main networks, with an increase in consumption, emergency shutdowns are possible in the Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Kyiv Oblasts and the city of Kyiv, the report says. […] The scale of damage caused by the Russian attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure on 10 February was significant: the Russians were able to damage several thermal and hydroelectric power plants.” Twelve civilians injured in Russia’s recent missile attack on Ukraine, Ukrinform reports, citing Ukrainian State Emergency Service. “Twelve civilians have been reported injured in Russia’s recent missile attack on the territory of Ukraine, which took place on February 10, 2023. Russian forces continues to intimidate our people. On February 10, 2023, the units of the Ukrainian State Emergency Service responded to 168 calls, eliminating the effects of shelling. Our professionals extinguished 16 fires and provided psychological aid to 172 persons, Ukrainian State Emergency Service Head Serhii Kruk noted. In his words, a total of 58 objects were damaged in yesterday’s terrorist attack by Russian invaders, mostly residential houses. More than 450 rescuers and about 100 equipment units of the Ukrainian State Emergency Service contributed to the elimination of the effects of shelling.” https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1624530289790787588Environmental
State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate bans operation of four power units of ZNPP, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine. "The industrial site of the Zaporizhzhia NPP is subject to periodic shooting; overhead communication lines with the energy system of Ukraine were damaged, State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate reports. The regulator also notes that the production facilities of the ZNPP, the information and crisis centre, cannot be used for their intended purpose due to the location of the Russian military there; because of the occupation, the operating Organisation of State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate does not have proper opportunities for the supply of inventory to the Zaporizhzhia NPP. At the industrial site, the Russians are illegally building unknown structures (on the territory of the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel and near the reserve diesel power plant of Unit No. 6), which is a violation of the design documentation of the ZNPP, the inspectorate reports. It is added that the restrictions will remain in effect until the identified violations are eliminated.”Legal
Belarusian court sentences railway saboteurs to 22 years in prison - rights group, Reuters reports. “A Belarusian court on Friday sentenced two men to 22 years in prison for their roles in acts of sabotage of the railway network intended to slow the movement of Russian forces through the country, rights group Viasna said. […] After Russia used Belarus as a launchpad to invade Ukraine last February, dozens of acts of sabotage were committed on the Belarusian railway. Saboteurs disabled equipment responsible for traffic control, which led to blockages on certain sections of railroad. Belarusian authorities have officially reported the arrest of 13 people for railway sabotage.”Ukrainian human rights organizations called on international institutions to sanction those involved in the illegal imprisonment & death of 2 activists in Russian prisons, Kostiantyn Shyrinh & Dzhemil Gafarov, who opposed the illegal annexation of Crimeahttps://t.co/wQeHieTmfN
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 11, 2023
Support
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1624521888117542922 Ukraine pleads for ammunition ‘immediately’ as Russia steps up attack, Financial Times reports. “Deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna tells FT that Moscow is better resourced to continue the war. Ukraine has pleaded with its allies for ammunition and artillery “immediately”, warning it is running short of stocks to defend against a new Russian offensive that Kyiv fears is imminent. […] Ukraine’s army is consuming ammunition at an unprecedented rate as it engages in punishing exchanges with Russia, prompting concerns about supplies. Ukraine is estimated to be firing more than 5,000 artillery rounds every day — equal to a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime. That rate of use has put huge strain on Europe’s defence producers, compounding supply chain challenges and increasing lead times for many munitions. Stefanishyna, Zelenskyy’s top official for European integration, warned that the Russians were doing everything possible to make the war continuous, lasting and exhausting, adding that Moscow had the resources, ammunition and reserves to continue its campaign.” White House: Countries can make their own decision on giving Ukraine fighter jets, The Kyiv Independent reports. “Any country can independently decide to transfer Western fighter jets to Ukraine, John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the US National Security Council, said on Feb. 10. If a NATO nation or even a non-NATO nation wants to provide capabilities like fighter aircraft to Ukraine, that’s certainly their decision to make, Kirby said. Earlier, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the U.K. will train pilots to operate NATO-standard fighter jets and will receive the first batch of Ukrainian trainees in the spring.” Hans Petter Midttun: John Kirby’s statement does not change the bilateral obligations of countries that have procured defence material from the USA (e.g. F-16). They will still need US approval to be able to donate or sell the equipment to Ukraine. Any country is free to donate own produced combat aircraft. Slovakia to launch talks on MiG-29 supply to Ukraine, Ukrinform reports, citing Hromadske. “Slovakia will begin negotiations on the transfer to Ukraine of its MiG-29 fighter jets. Prime Minister Eduard Heger of Slovakia says the country’s MiG-29 fighters have been decommissioned and their air force has no intention to further use them. […] Minister Yaroslav Nad’ of Defense emphasized that it is in the national interests of Slovakia for Ukraine to be a democratic and free nation. He drew public attention to the risk that Russia would decide to continue advancing westward. According to him, the next aid package for Ukraine is still being negotiated and that no final decision has been approved yet.” Former top US general: Jets could seal quick Ukraine victory, DW reports. “The former commanding general of the United States Army in Europe, Ben Hodges, said that Ukraine could achieve a quick victory if the West provided swift help with fighter jets. He predicted that the defeat of Russia could otherwise take three to five years, given the current level of Western support. The sooner we deliver them the capability to achieve a decisive outcome, the sooner that [the war] could be over, he said, arguing that Ukraine could expel Russian forces from its territory by the end of the year if given additional support. Hodges told DW's Ines Pohl that concern about training and runway compatibility issues do not make it "unfeasible" to provide Kyiv with the "capability" to use the aircraft. He praised the UK for being "in the lead" in providing several forms of military support to Ukraine.” UK might transfer Harpoon or Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing The Times, “The Times reports that sources in the Ukrainian Defence Ministry confirmed that Kyiv is ready to use the missiles to strike annexed Crimea. Harpoon missiles cost about £1.2 million each and have a maximum range of 240 kilometres. The Storm Shadow missiles cost about £2.2 million and can hit targets up to 560 kilometres away, although modified versions for export have a much shorter range. Negotiations are currently underway to decide how many British long-range missiles can be sent, despite previous fears that giving Ukraine the ability to launch cross-border strikes against Russia could lead to an escalation of the conflict, the agency notes. Harpoon anti-ship missiles have previously been provided to Ukraine by Denmark, and they can be adapted to be launched from trucks, although they will be less accurate when attacking ground targets. The Storm Shadow missiles can also be launched from the ground, but it is more likely that they will be mounted on Ukrainian aircraft.” Scholz hopes to have 80 Leopard 2 tanks ready for shipment to Ukraine by end of March, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Ukrinform. “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed his hopes that 80 Leopard 2 tanks will be ready to be sent to Ukraine by the end of March while commenting on the results of the EU Summit. When replying to journalists' questions as to whether he was sure that two battalions (that is, about 80 Leopard 2 tanks) will be ready to be supplied to Ukraine by the end of March, Scholz stated: I hope that we will manage to do that, after all. Nevertheless, the chancellor of Germany has admitted that it will not be easy. He has pointed out that Berlin is trying to push this matter forward with allies.” Ukraine receives 334 tons of equipment from Germany to restore energy infrastructure, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing the press service of the Ministry of Energy. "Ukraine has received 43 cargoes of humanitarian aid for the energy sector from German partners since July. This is almost 334 tons of equipment. Only in the last week, 4 cargoes with a total weight of more than 59 tons were delivered, the ministry said. It is noted that within the framework of the German-Ukrainian Energy Partnership, the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine received 40 transformers from the German grid operator Stromnetz Berlin GmbH. Among the equipment received by Ukraine are also generators, fittings for overhead lines, distribution and lighting equipment and electrical tools.”New Developments
Moralwashing: when companies don’t just fail to leave Russia but exaggerate their paltry efforts
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 11, 2023
“Moralwashing must be called out. Companies act immorally but get credit for being moral. Moralwashing negates motivation to take action & amounts to helping Putin” - @moralrating pic.twitter.com/Hv5AidcY38
- Moody's downgrades Ukraine rating on prolonged effects of Russia war, Reuters “Global ratings agency Moody's downgraded Ukraine's sovereign rating to 'Ca' from 'Caa3' on Friday, as it expects the war with Russia to create long-lasting challenges for the country. […] The agency said challenges arising out of the ongoing war increase the risk to the country's debt sustainability. […] According to Moody's, obligations rated 'Ca' are "highly speculative and are likely in, or very near, default, with some prospect of recovery of principal and interest". Ratings agencies Fitch and S&P currently rate Ukraine at 'CC' and 'CCC+', respectively. Moody's also changed Ukraine's outlook to stable from negative. The agency's reportalso says Ukraine's gross domestic product contracted by around 30% in 2022, with large costs in terms of human losses and extensive damage to the country's economy and public finances.”
- Putin to deliver state of the nation address on Feb. 21, Kyiv Post “Putin to try to justify his war against Ukraine after a year of failing to crush his democratic neighbour.”
- Ukraine needs war to end, but not by peace imposed on Russian terms – Baerbock, Ukrinform reports, citing German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. “The imposed ceasefire in the current conditions, when part of Ukraine is occupied and missiles and bombs continue to fly in, is not for peace in Ukraine, but for the subjugation of the Ukrainian state. That’s because the absence of war doesn’t automatically mean peace in freedom. An imposed peace is the opposite of a just peace. Because such a concept of peace, an imposed peace, recognizes the right of the strongest and thereby violates international law," the head of the German Foreign Ministry emphasized.”
- Pentagon looks to restart top-secret programs in Ukraine, The Washington Post “The Pentagon is urging Congress to resume funding a pair of top-secret programs in Ukraine suspended ahead of Russia’s invasion last year, according to current and former US officials. If approved,the move would allow American Special Operations troops to employ Ukrainian operatives to observe Russian military movements and counter disinformation. A determination is unlikely before the fall. […] No American military personnel are known to have operated there since the war began, beyond a small number tasked to the US Embassy in Kyiv.”
- Finland debates NATO ratification that may leave Sweden behind, Reuters “Finnish parliamentary groups said on Friday they may ratify NATO's founding treaties in the coming weeks, a key step that could lead the country to proceed with membership of the Western military alliance ahead of neighbouring Sweden.”
- President Zelensky believes Ukraine will join NATO after victory, Ukrinform “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed confidence that Ukraine will join NATO after its victory in the war.”
- Moldovan government quits amid economic turmoil, Russia tensions, Reuters “Moldova's pro-Western government resigned on Friday after a turbulent 18 months in power marked by economic turmoil and the spillover effects of Russia's war in neighbouring Ukraine. President Maia Sandu accepted Prime Minister's Natalia Gavrilita's resignation and nominated 48-year-old presidential aide and former interior minister Dorin Recean to replace her. […] His challenges include dealing with what Moldova portrays as attempts by Russia to destabilise the tiny former Soviet Republic of 2.5 million people which borders Ukraine and NATO and EU member Romania.”
- Oil prices rise over 2% on Russian plan to cut output, Reuters “Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday and posted weekly gains of over 8%, as Russia announced plans to reduce oil production next month after the West imposed price caps on the country's crude and fuel.”
- Moscow says calls to ban Russian athletes from Olympics unacceptable, Reuters “Russian Sports Minister Oleg Matytsin said on Saturday that calls from ministers of more than 30 countries to ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from the 2024 Olympics were unacceptable, TASS news agency reported. A group of 35 countries, including the United States, Germany and Australia, will demand that Russian and Belarusian athletes are banned from the 2024 Olympics, Lithuania's sports minister said on Friday, deepening the uncertainty over the Paris Games. […] The RIA Novosti news agency also reported that Matytsin described as "humiliating" a proposal by Polish Sports Minister Kamil Bortniczuk to create a team of refugees that would include Russian and Belarusian dissidents.”
Assessment
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2023*- On the war.
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of February 11, 2022:
- Ukrainian military officials and Russian pro-war nationalist voices are downplaying Russia’s ability to launch a sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the current circumstances of the Russian Armed Forces.
- Russian forces’ reported culmination and tactical failures around Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast, have likely further weakened the Russian ultra-nationalist community’s belief that Russian forces are able to launch a decisive military effort.
- The disparity between the limited but significant Russian advances in the Bakhmut area and the lack of meaningful advances elsewhere in Ukraine may support milblogger and Ukrainian observations that Russian forces are unable to secure rapid advances through traditional mechanized maneuver warfare.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is trying to salvage his declining influence in Russia as the Kremlin continues to sideline him and his mercenaries.
- Russian forces targeted southern Ukraine with air, missile, and aerial and maritime drone strikes overnight on February 10-11.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.
- Russian forces continue to prioritize offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities are likely draining the Kakhovka Reservoir north of occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

- Consequences and what to do?
- Nuclear blackmail is very much in line with its Hybrid War strategy aimed at manipulating populations and decisions- and policymakers. Installing fear, the threats trigger inaction and the calls for diplomatic solutions at the cost of the victim of Russia’s aggressions. Nuclear Blackmail must be recognised for what it is: An assault against our collective cognitive space.
- President Putin is rational. All of his actions so far – including the “strategic blunder” to invade Ukraine in the first place can be explained within the framework of the Hybrid War strategy. According to Andrei V Kozyrev, former Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, his actions are from a Russian perspective rational. Horrific, but not irrational. Having painted himself into a corner of his own making does not make him less rational. Desperate? Yes. Irrational? No.
- A Russian defeat in Ukraine does not trigger a response according to the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory is part of its efforts to utilise a “fait accompli” strategy it has found effective. Its declarations, however, do not turn parts of Ukraine, into Russia.
- Due to the risks and wider ramifications, the use of nuclear arms will always be a last resort. Despite suffering defeats on the battlefield, Russia still believes that victory is within reach as time is on its side as it has reverted to a long-term strategy. The Ukrainian economy is effectively being undermined. The West is still seen as the weak link and might still lose its new-found resolve as the “tsunami of ripple effects” from the war is taking hold, triggering demonstrations and strikes across Europe. Equally important, it has still more military options available. Belarus has still not been forced into action. Russia has yet to declare war and full mobilisation.
- Nuclear deterrence and the threat of mutual destruction are a part of a two-sided strategy. While Russia is threatening to use nuclear arms, it also knows that its use will trigger a military response. Putin has been told in no uncertain terms that a response would be forthcoming. According to Ben Hodges, “the Kremlin knows it would be impossible for the US to not respond if it uses a tactical nuke or chemical weapon in Ukraine. China, North Korea and Iran are watching. Pentagon will have provided a list of options to the President. Most are likely non-nuclear. All would be devastating for Russia.”
- Having been sanctioned and isolated by the West, Russia has turned to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). Since the use of nuclear arms will have a tremendous impact on global security and stability, it is hard to believe that Russia would proceed without consultation with China as a minimum. It is even harder to imagine China or India sanctioning even a tactical nuclear strike. On the contrary, India and China have voiced their concerns. Russia has lost the West and cannot run the risk of losing BRICS as well.
- Nations do not wage war for war's sake but in pursuance of policy in which a better state of peace is the main objective. Hence, it is essential to conduct war with constant regard to the peace one desire. A nuclear attack is in direct conflict with its long-term strategy. Facing huge demographic challenges, Russia needs Ukraine and Belarus to become a “Great Power”. It needs Ukraine’s defence industry. It needs a self-sustained Ukraine. It needs a well-functioning agricultural industry. It needs access to its huge mineral resources. It needs to secure a well-functioning country. The use of nuclear arms would, therefore, be extremely counterproductive.
- Lastly, even if Russia chose to ignore all of the above, the use of tactical nuclear weapons defies its purpose unless it can explore the “military advantage” created by its blast. Russia lacks the capability to operate in the area devastated by its blast and push fresh forces through the gap in the frontline.