An alleged Ukrainian drone attack damaged at least three Russian warships near occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Russia lost some 950 troops in a day. The highway Svatove-Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast is under full fire control of the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian troops shot down more than 40 Iranian-made strike drones in a week. Satellite imagery shows that the Russian equipment disappeared from the area of the Chornobaivka airfield near occupied Kherson. Italy to supply MLRS and howitzers to Ukraine.
Daily overview — Summary report, October 31
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 30, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below
The enemy is trying to hold the temporarily captured territories, concentrates efforts on restraining the actions of the Defense Forces in certain directions, while at the same time not stopping offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions.
During the day, units of the Defence Forces repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of settlements: Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Oleksandropil, Kamianka, Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, Mariinka, Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk oblast.
The enemy continues shelling units of the Defence Forces along the contact line, carries out fortification equipment of the lines in separate directions, and conducts aerial reconnaissance. Strikes critical infrastructure and civilian homes, violating international humanitarian law, laws and customs of war.
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 5 missile and 23 air strikes, launched more than 100 MLRS strikes. The areas of more than 45 settlements were affected by this criminal activity. Among them are Sloviansk and Siversk in the Donetsk oblast, Zaporizhzhia, and Novooleksandrivka in the Kherson oblast.
The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukrainians. The Russian federation continues to transfer individual units to the territory of this country. Thus, on October 26, the arrival of an echelon of military equipment from the Russian Federation at the Brest railway station was marked. Together with the servicemen of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, the so-called “Kadyrovtsy” (Kadyrov’s troops – Ed.) arrive. In addition, Russian soldiers were spotted in settlements between the cities of Brest and Malorita.
The threat of missile strikes and the use of attack UAVs from the territory of the republic of belarus continues to persist.
The enemy shelled in other directions:
- in the Siversky direction – from mortars and barrel artillery, in the areas of Rozhkoyichi, Budky, Mezenivka, Fotovyzh and Myropillya settlements of the Sumy oblast;
- in the Slobozhansky direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery, in the areas of Ternova, Vovchansk, Veterynarne, Vilkhuvatka, Hatyshche, Hryhorivka, Kamianka, Fiholivka, Dvorichna, Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Strilecha and Chuhunivka settlements;
- in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions – from artillery of various types, in the areas of the settlements of Kislivka, Krokhmalne, Hrekivka, Zarichne, Novoyehorivka, Berestove, Nevske, Olhivka, Terny, Torske, and Yampolivka;
- in the Bakhmut direction – from tanks and the entire range of artillery, in the areas of Andriivka, Bakhmut, Bakhmutske, Bilohorivka, Vesele, Zvanivka, Siversk, Zelenopillia, Soledar, Odradivka, Opytne, New York, Vasyukivka, Serebryanka and Yakovlivka;
- in the Avdiivka direction – from tanks, mortars, barrel and jet artillery in the areas of Avdiivka, Nevelske, Vesele, Vodyane, Mariinka, Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiske and Opytne settlements;
- in the Novopavlivsk direction – from tanks and rocket artillery in the areas of Vremivka, Vuhledar, Yehorivka, Mykilske, Novoukrainka, Pavlivka and Prechystivka settlements.
- In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the enemy inflicted fire in the areas of Hulyaipole, Nove, Dorozhnyanka, Zaliznychne, Zelenyi Hay, Temyrivka, Olhivske, and Chervone settlements.
About 20 settlements along the contact line were hit by fire in the South Buh direction. The settlements of Nikopol and Vyshchetarasivka in the Dnipropetrovsk oblast and Havrylivka in the Kherson oblast were hit by enemy shelling from rocket and barrel artillery.
According to the available information, during the so-called “evacuation” of Kherson correctional colony No. 90, the occupiers took out prisoners. The enemy is using the premises of the mentioned correctional facility for the placement of personnel and military equipment.
In settlements near the city of Kherson, the enemy is taking measures to prepare for defence. The arrival of about a hundred “Rosguards” from the city of Grozny to the settlement of Kalanchak was noted.
On the territory of the city of Nova Kakhovka, Russian special services are actively listening to the telephone conversations of the civilian population.
In the village of Velyka Znamyanka, Zaporizhzhia region, the enemy continues to place personnel in the homes of local residents.
Aviation of the Defence Forces during the day struck the enemy 32 times: 23 – in areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 3 – in platoon strongholds, and 6 – in enemy air defence positions. Soldiers of Ukrainian air defence shot down an Iskander-K missile and 2 enemy Orlan-10 UAVs.
During the current 24 hours, units of missile forces and artillery hit 6 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment, 3 ammunition depots, 2 anti-aircraft defence facilities and 9 other important military objects of the enemy.
Military Updates
- Sea traffic in the Sevastopol bay was temporarily suspended after a reported drone attack, Russia’s state-controlled TASS said citing the occupation authorities of Crimea. Russian occupation authorities of Sevastopol claimed that at 4:30 AM, air defense repelled drone attacks, including an underwater drone, and all attacks were ostensibly repelled. Meanwhile, three Russian ships in occupied Sevastopol, including the Black Sea Fleet’s post-Moskva flagship Admiral Makarov, were reported by various Ukrainian journalists citing sources in the security services to be damaged in Ukraine’s drone attack on the morning on October 29. After the attack, unknown hackers breached key Russian propagandistic channels in Crimea and showed footage of hits that had damaged the ships, journalist Andriy Tsaplienko reported.
- “The highway Svatove-Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast is under full fire control of the Ukrainian military,” the spokesman of the Operational Command East of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Serhii Cherevatyi, told Suspilne.
- Ukrainian soldiers from the Khort Special Forces have eliminated the Deputy Chief of Staff of Russia’s PMC Wagner, the unit stated on Facebook. This happened in early September, during Ukraine’s first offensive in the Kherson direction, commander Pavlo Pataretskyi says.
- During the week – from Saturday to Saturday – Ukrainian troops shot down more than 40 Iranian-made strike drones, a significant number of Russian missiles, six attack helicopters of the occupiers, several planes, President Zelenskyy said in his evening address on October 29.
- Residents of occupied Kherson are given two days to evacuate from their own homes, Ukraine’s Operative Command South reports. They must undergo additional checks at checkpoints that the Russians set up on the way to occupied Crimea.
- Satellite images from 27 October shared by OSINT analyst Tim Ehrhart show that Russian troops have fully withdrawn their military equipment stationed at the Chornobaivka airfield near occupied Kherson.
According to British Defence Intelligence:
- On 27 October 2022, Russian mogul Yevgeny Prigozhin posted online, apparently admitting allegations that his private military company, the Wagner Group, had altered its standards & was recruiting Russian convicts suffering from serious diseases including HIV & Hepatitis C.
- The role of Wagner Group has evolved significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In previous conflicts, it maintained relatively high recruitment standards, with many of its operators having previously served as professional Russian soldiers. The admission of prisoners with serious medical concerns highlights an approach which now prioritises numbers over experience or quality.
- Prigozhin’s has recently discussed plans to create a 200km long defensive ‘Wagner Line’ in eastern Ukraine. This endeavour would require a large labour force. There is a realistic possibility that some of the convict recruits will initially be put to work constructing the defences.
Losses of the Russian army
From February 24 to October 30, the Armed Forces of Ukraine eliminated about 71,200 Russian invaders, including 950 in the past day alone, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
As of 30 October, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:
Humanitarian
- On October 29, Ukrainian Intelligence reported that 52 POWs including soldiers and officers, medics, sergeants from the Naval Forces, the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the Territorial Defense of Ukraine were released from Russian captivity.
- The Russian military shelled the cities of Nikopol and Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Residential buildings, city infrastructure, cars were damaged. A local resident was injured, the department of the National Police reports.
- According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Razumkov Center, some 51% of people in Ukraine believe that the events in Ukraine are developing in the right direction, Andrii Bychenko, director of the sociological service of the Razumkov Center said at Ukrinform press conference.
- Zelenskyy: Russia is “deliberately working to ensure starvation” with suspension from grain deal.
Environmental
- Speaking on the air of Polsat News, Jakub Kumoch, Head of the Polish President’s International Bureau, said that with its aggression against Ukraine, Russia annulled the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, and Warsaw is interested in participating in the NATO Sharing Program, the Polish Presidential website reported.
Legal
- On Oct. 29, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Moscow would suspend its implementation of an UN-brokered grain export deal that allowed millions of tons of grain to be exported from Ukraine. After suspending participation in the “grain agreement”, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced that Russia is ready to completely replace Ukrainian grain on the world market for free, supplying 500,000 tons of grain.
- Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, believes Russia has long planned to undermine the grain deal and is now trying to justify its move. The EU urged Russia to reverse its decision to pull out of a UN-brokered deal that enabled Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea amid a global food crisis. NATO on Sunday called on Moscow to urgently renew the UN-brokered deal that enabled Ukraine to resume grain exports via the Black Sea amid a global food crisis.
- Denys Monastyrskyy, minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, has said that Ukrainian police found 1,077 bodies in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts. In addition, law enforcement officers discovered 27 torture chambers set up by Russian troops, UkrInform reported.
- On October 29, Generalitat de Catalunya said that police detained a 57-year-old man accused of painting on buildings and writing threatening texts. For example, he painted Z – a symbol of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the walls of a 1000-year-old cathedral in Barcelona.
Support
- As La Repubblica reports, the Italy military aid package endorsed by the Draghi government included two M270 multiple rocket launchers, six 155mm PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, 20 to 30 units of 155mm modernized M109L self-propelled howitzers, and dozens of M113 armored personnel carriers.
- Lithuania would repair 12 German Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers for Ukraine, Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said.
- “Poland, together with its EU partners, stands ready to work further to help Ukraine and those in need to transport essential goods.”
- The Press Councils in Armenia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Ireland, Moldova, Norway, and Sweden are suspending their membership in the Alliance of Independent Press Councils of Europe (AIPCE) over Russia’s continued membership in the organization, Ukraine’s Commission of Journalist ethics reported.
Assessment
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 29 October 2022:
Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29. Social media footage documented an unknown number of unmanned surface vehicles striking at least one Grigorovich-class frigate in Sevastopol on October 29. Footage also showed smoke near the port in Sevastopol and what appeared to be Russian air defense in Sevastopol engaging air targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces used seven autonomous maritime drones and nine unmanned aerial vehicles to conduct a “terrorist attack” against the BSF and civilian targets in Sevastopol. Attacks on military vessels in wartime are legitimate acts of war and not terrorist attacks. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces destroyed all air targets, destroyed four maritime drones on the outer roadstead, and three maritime drones on the inner roadstead. A similar unidentified unmanned surface vehicle first appeared on the coast of Crimea on September 21.
Damage to Black Sea Fleet vessels is unclear at this time. The Russian MoD claimed that the attack inflicted minor damage against BSF minesweeper Ivan Golubets and a protective barrier in the south bay. Russian officials did not acknowledge any damage to a Grigorovich-class frigate, similar to how the Russian MoD denied any damage to the cruiser Moskva when Ukrainian forces sunk it on April 14. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for the attack as of this publication.
The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia indefinitely suspended its participation in the United Nations-brokered grain export deal with Ukraine due to the attack on October 29. Russia had been setting rhetorical conditions to withdraw from the deal for some time, however.
The Black Sea Fleet has three Grigorovich-class frigates, all of which are capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles. A Ukrainian decision to target Kalibr-capable frigate at this time makes sense given the intensified Russian drone and missile strike campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. If Kyiv ordered this attack, it would have been a proportionate, even restrained, response to the extensive Russian strategic bombing campaign attacking civilian targets throughout Ukraine over the past few weeks. […]
Key Takeaways
- Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29.
- The Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in Ukraine.
- Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some of them out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely responding to pressure levied by milbloggers regarding its treatment of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and the conduct of prisoner exchanges.
- Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Ukrainian intelligence indicated that the highest quality Russian troops are still responsible for the defense of Kherson Oblast.
- Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River.
- Russian forces likely slowed the pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area due to a Ukrainian strike.
- Russian sources claimed that Russian troops launched an offensive in the Vuhledar area.
- Russian troops likely made marginal gains around Donetsk City.
- The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).
- The Kremlin is likely conducting an information operation to reduce tensions between Christians and Muslims in Russia to cater to religious minority groups within the Russian armed forces.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 29. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on October 29 that Ukrainian troops have established full fire control of the main sections of the R66 (Svatove-Kreminna) road, which Cherevaty noted makes it impossible for Russian logistics and supplies to continue along the route. Cherevaty also reported that fighting is ongoing along the Svatove-Kreminna line. A prominent Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to break through to Kreminna and accumulating forces to attack a position less than 2km away from current Russian positions and within 4km of the R66 highway. Several Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), reported that Ukrainian troops attacked in the direction of Chervonopopivka, 6km northwest of Kreminna. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a Ukrainian precision strike eliminated 20 Russian soldiers and wounded 30 in Chervonopopivka.
Russian sources also continued to claim that Russian troops conducted offensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 29. The Russian MoD claimed that unspecified Russian “active actions” destroyed Ukrainian equipment concentrations in Timkivka, Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Khrokmalne, all in the Kupiansk area and about 20km northwest of Svatove. Geolocated footage posted on October 29 shows a Ukrainian strike destroying a Russian tank in Pisky (a small settlement in northeast Kharkiv Oblast about 3km south of the international border), indicating that Russian troops are still holding positions east of the Oskil River near the international border.
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces still have their highest quality forces operating in Kherson Oblast, predicting that Ukrainian forces will liberate the city by the end of November. Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that there are 40,000 Russian servicemen in Kherson Oblast, of which most are competent units from Russian airborne troops, special operations forces, and naval infantry. Budanov added that Russian forces are reinforcing these units with mobilized personnel and noted that the Russian grouping of forces operates in Kherson City, and on the western and eastern banks of the Dnipro River. Budanov noted that Russian forces are continuing to resist and are impeding Ukrainian advances on a daily basis. Budanov reiterated that the GUR’s officially assesses that Russia will not fully destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Dam, but instead will destroy the road that goes over the dam to slow Ukrainian advances across the Dnipro River.
Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River on October 29. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are continuing to deploy mobilized men to the western bank, despite the fact that these men show signs of low morale and a lack of prior training. Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are forcing civilians to construct fortifications in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces continued to evacuate unspecified occupiers and are stealing medical equipment from Kherson City hospitals. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Military Administration Serhiy Khlan stated that Russian forces have not yet prepared for street fights in Kherson City.
Ukrainian and Russian sources provided limited information regarding the situation on the Kherson Oblast frontline on October 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces struck Davydiv Brid and Mala Seideminukha (on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River) and Kobzartsi (about 60km east from Mykolaiv City). The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled five Ukrainian ground attacks in the directions of Mylove, Sukhanove, Pyatikhatky, Ishchenka, Bruskinske, and Sadok along the frontline in northern Kherson Oblast. A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 126th Separate Guards Coastal Brigade and the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade continued to operate in the northeastern direction in (presumably) western Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian forces continued conducting their interdiction campaign on October 29. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian missile and artillery units destroyed three ammunition depots in the Beryslav and Mykolaiv Raions. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command added that Ukrainian aviation also carried out eight strikes on Russian manpower and equipment concentration areas, air defense, and logistics support areas. Ukrainian social media sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivsky Bridge and noted two explosions in Chornobaivka, northwest of Kherson City.
Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces likely slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, likely recovering from a Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for another attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.
Russian milbloggers claimed en masse that Russian forces began an offensive push towards Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast on October 28-29. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces attacked towards Pavlivka from positions to the south near Yehorivka and from the east near Mykilske. Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces destroyed the first line of Ukrainian defenses and entered the southeastern outskirts of Pavlivka. None of these claims included corroborating combat footage. The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Russian forces conducted any ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on October 29.
Russian forces continued making incremental territorial gains near Donetsk City on October 29. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces entering the southeastern outskirts of Vodyane, north of Donetsk City. A Russian source claimed that Russian forces seized a section of the M04 highway and advanced near Nevelske and towards Pervomaiske, both northwest of Donetsk City. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka, north of Donetsk City near Vodyane, and northwest of Donetsk City near Nevelske. […]
