The Russian troops attempt to reach the administrative border of Donetsk oblast and are holding captured territories of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts. Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast and continued counterattacks west of Kreminna. Ukrainian troops launched a general counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian forces likely struck Russian military assets situated along Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and southern Donetsk Oblast. Russia may have signed a new contract with Iran for the supply of Arash-2 drones. Kyiv is partially covered by an anti-drone dome protecting especially important objects. An energy infrastructure facility seriously damaged in Kyiv. In Russia, the first funerals of recently mobilized Russians reported. The total losses of the Russian army are approaching 65,000.
Daily overview — Summary report, October 16
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 16/10/22.
There have been no notable changes to control since the last update. pic.twitter.com/QZgWKKXm65
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) October 16, 2022
The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, October 16, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below
Military Updates
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581374608879456256
The creative team behind Ukrainian military’s accounts has weaponised humour to win global support and conquered Twitter, FT writes
"Trolling helps show the king has no clothes," Anna who creates content Ukraine defence ministry’s Twitter told FT https://t.co/G5dWHBamh3 pic.twitter.com/3P0c0Lj5sf
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 15, 2022
Regional Updates
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581277545416126464
According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours):
- On 10 October 2022, Russia probably fired more than 80 cruise missiles into Ukraine. President Putin claimed the strikes were in retaliation for the attack on the Kerch Bridge.
- Ukraine’s defence ministry reported that more than half of the projectiles were shot down, but dozens struck Kyiv and other population centres, killing civilians and damaging civil infrastructure.
- Russia’s defence industry is probably incapable of producing advanced munitions at the rate they are being expended. These attacks represent a further degradation of Russia’s long-range missile stocks, which is likely to constrain their ability to strike the volume of targets they desire in future.
Losses of the Russian army
As of 15 October, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:
⚰️russia's combat losses in Ukraine as of October 16
▪ 65000 killed soldiers (+300)
▪ 5193 APV (+14)
▪ 2529 tanks (+5)
▪ 1589 artillery systems (+7)
▪ 268 aircraft and 242 helicopters
▪ 16 boats and cutters#StopRussia #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/oua4PEVBFr— VoxUkraine (@voxukraine) October 16, 2022
Humanitarian
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581481053641768961
14-year-old Vlad was painting at home in Lyman on 8 October when the ceiling collapsed on him during Russian shelling
His intestine & spine were injured but soldiers quickly evacuated him. He went through surgery in five hospitals & now goes to Norway. https://t.co/lvUbN8m6bj pic.twitter.com/nzH55qAzIP
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 15, 2022
Environmental
TotalEnergies, a French energy giant is facing an anti-terrorism investigation for allegedly fuelling Russian fighter jets that were bombing Ukraine
The French Darwin Climax Coalition & Ukrainian Razom filed complaint to France's anti-terrorist prosecutor https://t.co/TzAD78sQ8N
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 15, 2022
Legal
Two more bodies of men tortured by Russian military found in Kharkiv Oblast
Traces of torture were recorded: fractures of the bones of skull, jaw and ribs. Acc to preliminary version, men detained by Russian military during occupation of Kozacha Lopan https://t.co/SajJBFg4Sq
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 16, 2022
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1581415370371506177
Support
A symbolic "referendum" on the transfer of the Russian embassy to Poland’s ownership was held in Warsaw on Saturday
The "referendum" was attended by "international observers", including from Italy and the Czech Republic. The turnout stood at 127%. https://t.co/nn0ThJskq5
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 16, 2022
The European Union has pledged 11 billion euros for Ukraine but only disbursed 3 billion in loans.
“We are calling on our partners and allies to join us by swiftly disbursing their existing commitments to Ukraine,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. https://t.co/hAAHOqu5ww
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 15, 2022
New Developments
European Council decided that if a vessel under flag of third country transported Russian crude oil or petroleum products purchased at price above the price cap, it should be prohibited to provide technical, financial assistance, brokering services https://t.co/zCUva1OxcN
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 15, 2022
Assessment
- On the war.
map source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-15*
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of 15 October, 2022:
Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin stated on October 14 that “several thousand” children from Kherson Oblast are “already in other regions of Russia, resting in rest homes and children’s camps.”[1] As ISW has previously reported, Russian authorities openly admitted to placing children from occupied areas of Ukraine up for adoption with Russian families in a manner that may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.[2]
Russian authorities may additionally be engaged in a wider campaign of ethnic cleansing by depopulating Ukrainian territory through deportations and repopulating Ukrainian cities with imported Russian citizens. Ethnic cleansing has not in itself been specified as a crime under international law but has been defined by the United Nations Commission of Experts on violations of humanitarian law committed on the territory of the former Yugoslavia as “rendering an area ethnically homogeneous by using force or intimidation to remove persons of given groups from the area” and “a purposeful policy designed by one ethnic or religious group to remove by violent and terror-inspiring means the civilian population of another ethnic or religious group from certain geographic areas.”[3] According to the UN definition, ethnic cleansing may be carried out by forcible removal, among other methods.[4] These definitions of ethnic cleansing campaigns are consistent with reports of the forcible deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children, as well as reports by Ukrainian sources that reconstruction projects in Mariupol are intended to house “tens of thousands of Russians” who will move to Mariupol.[5]
Prominent Russian milbloggers who yesterday announced the existence of “hit lists” reportedly originating with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and targeting milbloggers for their coverage of operations in Ukraine walked back their claim on October 15. As ISW reported on October 14, prominent Russian milblogger Semyon Pegov of the WarGonzo Telegram channel accused “individual generals and military commanders” of the Russian MoD of developing a “hitlist” of Russian milbloggers whom the MoD intends to prosecute for “discrediting” the MoD’s handling of the war in Ukraine.[6] Pegov’s claim was amplified by several other milbloggers and generated substantial panic about censorship in the hyper-nationalist Russian information space.[7]
Pegov announced on October 15, however, that “there are no more lists”, and that the issue of lists has been removed from the agenda and congratulated his following and the wider milblogger community for being untouchable in the face of attempted crackdowns.[8] Pegov also reiterated that he has been aware of the list for weeks and knew that administrative and political power structures had already begun working on investigations of individual channels. Pegov claimed that he has learned who the author of the list was and praised his followers and colleagues for supporting him. Other prominent milbloggers amplified Pegov’s statements and stated that milbloggers continue to lead the fight for truth in the information space.
As ISW has previously assessed the announcement of mobilization served as a catalyst for a breakdown in the Russian information space that put the increasingly alienated MoD further at odds with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the cohort of milbloggers that he has periodically supported and empowered.[9] The Russian milblogger community may have strategically weaponized the rumors of MoD hit lists against the MoD itself by exposing the information and appearing to defeat the MoD attacks against it—whether or not they were real in the first place. The discourse surrounding the existence of these lists indicates continued structural fractures between the MoD establishment, the milbloggers, and the Kremlin.
The Wagner Group Private Military Company is likely continuing efforts to assert its supremacy over the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and conventional Russian ground forces. A video posted to social media on October 13 shows servicemen of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in an unspecified location in Kherson Oblast complaining that they have been fighting in the area since the beginning of the war without breaks or troop rotation.[10] The servicemen asserted that they are being “crushed” by Ukrainian forces and emphasized that they have one BTR (armored personnel carrier) for 80 people, which is greatly restricting their maneuverability.[11] After the video circulated, a Wagner Group-affiliated Telegram channel announced on October 14 that Wagner Group leadership decided to transfer four off-road vehicles to the 126th Coastal Defense Battalion in support of their efforts to hold the frontline in Kherson Oblast.[12] This exchange is noteworthy in light of ISW’s previous assessment that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is actively attempting to curry favor with Russian President Vladimir Putin and set Wagner Group forces apart from conventional MoD forces.[13] The move to donate basic equipment to a detachment of conventional Russian ground forces may be an implicit critique of the MoD’s apparent inability to provide such necessities to its own soldiers.
Russia may have signed a new contract with Iran for the supply of Arash-2 drones. Ukrainian and Russian Telegram channels reported “leaked” information from unspecified Iranian sources that Russia has purchased an unknown number of Arash-2 drones, which are purportedly faster and more destructive than the Shahed-136 drones that are currently in use by Russian forces.[14] Commander of the Iranian Ground Forces Brigadier General Kiomars Heydari previously claimed in early September that the Arash-2 drones have unique long-range capabilities and could target cities in Israel such as Tel Aviv and Haifa from bases in Iran.[15] Reports that Moscow is continuing to rely on Tehran for destructive munitions are consistent with a report from the US Treasury Department that suggests Russia is rapidly expending its supply of microelectronics that are critical for the military-industrial complex because it cannot replace key components unavailable because of sanctions.[16] Russia will likely continue to leverage its relationship with Iran to circumvent sanctions, although it is very unlikely that Russian forces will use the Arash-2 to any greater effect than they have used the Shahed-136 model.[17]
Key Takeaways
- Russia is conducting forced deportation of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign in addition to apparent violations of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
- Prominent Russian milbloggers who yesterday announced the existence of “hit lists” reportedly originating with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and targeting milbloggers for their coverage of operations in Ukraine walked back their claim on October 15.
- The Wagner Group Private Military Company is likely continuing efforts to assert its supremacy over the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and more conventional Russian ground forces.
- Russia may have signed a new contract with Iran for the supply of Arash-2 drones.
- Russian forces continued counterattacks west of Kreminna.
- Russian milbloggers widely discussed the likelihood of a Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kreminna and Svatove.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a general counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces likely struck Russian military assets situated along Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and southern Donetsk Oblast.
- Mobilized Russian forces engaged in a fratricidal altercation at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast.
- Russian and occupation administration officials continued to enact restrictions on movement and conduct strict law enforcement activities in Russian-occupied territories.