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Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 200: Ukraine liberates more land in Kharkiv Oblast

byHans Petter Midttun
11/09/2022
26 minute read
Russo-Ukrainian War. Day 200: Ukraine liberates more land in Kharkiv Oblast
Article by: Hans Petter Midttun

Ukrainian forces continue to make significant gains in the Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces around Izium are likely increasingly isolated. The Ukrainian military is on the outskirts of Lysychansk. Ukrainian operations also continue in the Kherson Oblast. The Russian defensive front is under pressure on its northern and southern flanks. Ukrainian Air Force destroying enemy air defense systems, using HARM missiles. The 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Federation ceased to exist due to the death or injury of all servicemen. Russia finally comments on the Ukrainian liberation of places in Kharkiv Oblast. Police document Russian war crimes in liberated territories of Kharkiv Oblast. Russia-imported Iranian drones malfunction in battle. The US accuses Moscow of forcibly deporting up to 1.6 million Ukrainians. Germany plans to send 16 bridge-laying tanks BIBER, 10 anti-aircraft guns GEPARD to Ukraine. A course for long-term support of Ukraine set at Ramstein-5.

Daily Review, September 11 2022

The General Staff’s operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, September 11, 2022 is in the dropdown menu below. 

Situation in Ukraine. September 10, 2022. Source: ISW.

 

Russian forces continue to focus their efforts on establishing full control over the territory of the Donetsk oblast, maintaining the temporarily captured districts of the Kherson oblast, part of the Kharkiv oblast, Zaporizhzhia region, and Mykolayiv oblast.

Conducts air reconnaissance, constantly tries to improve the tactical position, takes measures to improve the logistical support of its units and conducts shelling of the positions of our troops along the entire contact line.

A further threat of air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have carried out 16 missiles and 34 airstrikes on military and civilian objects on the territory of Ukraine. 28 settlements were affected by this. In particular, Slavhorod, Velyka Pysarivka, Velyki Prohody, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Mariinka, Neskuchne, Velyka Novosilka, Dnipro, and Bruskinske. [On Saturday, the Russian occupiers launched 9 missiles and 10 air strikes on military and civilian objects. In particular, the settlements of Slavhorod, Velyka Pysarivka, Velyki Prohody, Avdiivka, Siversk, Kostyantynivka, Bakhmut, Nevelske, Mariinka, Velyka Novosilka, Dnipro, Neskuchne, Vilne Pole, Poltavka, Mali Shcherbaki, Mykolaiv, Biloghirya, Sukhy Stavok and Bruskinske were affected by enemy strikes.]

The situation in the Volyn and Polissya directions has not changed significantly. [In order to maintain the troops of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus in combat readiness, the training period has been extended once again.]

In other directions, Russian forces fired from tanks, mortars, artillery and MLRS, namely:

Kharkiv Battle Map. September 10, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • in the Siversky direction – near Bilopyllya, Lynove and Hrabovske, Sumy oblast;
  • in the Kharkiv direction – in the areas of Lyutivka, Tymofiyivka, Dementiyivka, Zolochiv, Sosnivka, Pytomnyk, Ruski Tyshki, Cherkaski Tyshki and Borshcheva settlements;
Donetsk Battle Map. September 10, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • in the Sloviansk direction – in the areas of the settlements of Sloviansk, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dovhenke and Dmytrivka;
  • in the Kramatorsk direction – near Kryva Luka, Piskunivka, Sydorove and Rozdolivka;
  • in the Bakhmut direction – in the areas of Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka and Vesele settlements;
  • in the Avdiivka direction – near Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Karlivka and Krasnohorivka;
  • in the Novopavlivskyi direction – in the areas of Velyki Novosilky, Shevchenko, Vuhledar and Mariinka settlements;
  • in the Zaporizhzhia region – near Hulyaipole, Rivnopillya, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Chervone and Malynivka;
Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map. September 10, 2022. Source: ISW.
  • in the Pivdenny Buh direction – in the areas of Myrne, Stepova Dolyna, Bila Krynytsya, Sukhy Stavok, Lyubomirivka, Bezimenne and Nova Zorya settlements. [Yesterdat – in the areas of Stepova Dolyna, Oleksandrivka, Myrne, Lyubomyrivka, Kiselivka, Vesely Kut, Velyke Artakove, Blahodativka and Vysokopilya settlements. In total, more than twenty settlements were hit by artillery fire in this direction.]

Russian forces continue to suffer losses. In the Kharkiv direction, enemy units from the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Joint Arms Army were left without means of support, and the personnel were in a panicked mood. Also, it is known about the numerous sanitary losses of Russian forces in the indicated direction. During the previous day, more than 75 wounded Russian soldiers were brought to the village of Valuyka in the Belgorod region, while more than a hundred occupiers were evacuated from Belgorod to Moscow.

[As a result of the actions of the Defense Forces in the Pivdenny Buh direction, the losses of units of the [Russian] 106th Airborne Division in the previous day alone amounted to more than 58 people killed. The command of the occupying forces is carrying out measures to restore the combat capability of units of the 1st Army Corps by transferring personnel who survived the hostilities to other units. Thus, according to available information, the remnants of personnel from the so-called “khan” special purpose battalion were transferred to the 9th Marine Regiment.]

Due to significant losses in manpower, the Russian invaders plan to carry out the so-called “mobilization” of the male population in the temporarily captured territories. Now men are forbidden to leave settlements.

[The number of self-harms has increased among personnel arriving in Ukraine for reinforcements. The Russian leadership is constantly looking for new sources of replenishment of reserves. Promising a high salary and a social package, it tries to recruit “volunteers” among retired military personnel in the Kyrgyz Republic through social media groups.]

[In connection with the approach of units of the Defense Forces, the command of the Russian occupying forces in the Kherson region is trying to strengthen the city of Kherson by moving reserves. Thus, in the oblast, new units of Russian forces are recorded, whose servicemen are poorly oriented in the city.]

[The invaders are trying to carry out work on the restoration of traffic across the Kakhovskaya HPP bridge, the section of which is under the fire control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Nova Kakhovka, the invaders intensified filtering measures with the participation of FSB officers of Russia – they check mobile devices, look for citizens who help the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The situation is similar in Energhdar, Zaporizhzhia region.]

In response to the successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian invaders are carrying out “countermeasures”. In populated areas, in the temporarily captured territories of Kharkiv and Kherson regions, the occupiers are strengthening the administrative and police regime, entry and exit from populated areas are prohibited, and a curfew has been introduced. In Kherson, a search was made of the residential premises of the Skhidniy micro district, from which the Antoniv bridge can be seen. Local residents of Kakhovka and Kozatskyi were warned by the Russian military to open fire on them if they approached the crossings.

The Defense Forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of Sosnivka, Mayorsk, Mykolaivka Druha, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Pisky, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka settlements.

Kup’an’sk. By Ukraine War Maps.

The de-occupation of Ukraine continues. In general, in recent days, about two thousand square kilometres of Ukrainian territory have been freed from Russian occupation. Our units entered Kupiansk, and the liberation of settlements of Kupiansk and Izium districts of Kharkiv oblast continues.

During the day, to support the actions of the land groupings, the Ukrainian Air Force carried out 23 strikes, during which four anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed, four strongholds and fifteen places where Russian manpower and equipment were concentrated were hit. In addition, our air defence units destroyed two aircraft (Su-25 and Su-34), one Ka-52 helicopter, two UAVs and one guided air missile.

Missile troops and artillery of land groupings continue to perform tasks of counter-battery combat, fire damage to manpower and combat equipment, and disruption of Russian command and control system and logistical support. As a result of the fire impact, two control points of unmanned aircraft, strongholds, and accumulation of weapons and military equipment of Russian forces in the areas of concentration were hit during the day. A pontoon crossing and enemy watercraft with military equipment on them also fell into the affected area.”

Military Updates 

In 10 days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 2,000 square kilometres of territory, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing President Zelenskyy’s video address. “The movement of our soldiers on different fronts continues. At this time, as part of the actions since the beginning of September, about 2,000 kilometres of our territory have already been liberated. These days, the Russian army is demonstrating the best thing it can do — it runs away. And, after all, it is a good choice for them to run away. There is no place for the occupiers in Ukraine and there will never be any.”

Fights for Lyman in Donetsk Oblast continue, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Oleksandr Zhuravlov, the mayor of Lyman. “The Russian military is still resisting. Our flag is not there yet. We have to wait for a little.”

Izium. By Ukraine War Map.

Occupiers say they have left Izium and other settlements, while Ukrainian troops show a video: We are in Izium, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing Daniil Bezsonov, the so-called “first deputy minister of information of the Donetsk People’s Republic”; Russian media outlet RBC and the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568650618977255425

Russian forces have withdrawn from the city of Izium and several other settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. Kots added that the occupiers had also withdrawn from Balakliia and Kupiansk.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568796723064885248

RBC reported that the withdrawal from Izium was also confirmed by war correspondents Alexander Kots and Evgenii Poddubnyi. The latter believe that the command made the right decision “in the current circumstances”. He says that “the encirclement of the Russian group in Izium would have been a disaster”.

On 9 September, Zelenskyy reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had liberated over 30 settlements in the Kharkiv region.

On 10 September, Nataliia Popova, advisor to the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Council, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had liberated the city of Kupiansk from the occupiers.

On 10 September, Nataliia Humeniuk, spokesperson of the Operational Command Pivden (South) press centre, reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were also conducting a successful counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine. As of now, they have advanced several dozen kilometres on various fronts.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568622654709694466

The Ukrainian military is on the outskirts of Lysychansk, Ukrainska Pravda reports. “Serhii Haidai, the head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, has said that the Ukrainian military is on the outskirts of previously Russian-held Lysychansk.”

Ukrainian Air Force destroying enemy air defense systems, using HARM missiles, Ukrinform reports, citing the Air Force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat. “Ukraine’s Air Force is taking an active part in supporting the nation’s Ground Forces, including by engaging Russian air defences with the help of US-supplied HARM missiles.

Our Air Force is taking an active part in supporting our ground forces, striking ground targets, and enemy air defence systems with American HARM missiles, which is great news because more than one such air defence system has been destroyed by these missiles. This, of course, helps our strike planes – our Su-25 attack aircraft and Su-24M bombers, loaded with missiles and bombs, dropping tonnes of munitions on invaders’ heads. With the support of artillery and other units, our Ground Forces can be more confident while advancing in the directions where the battles to liberate our lands are currently being fought, the spokesman said.”

The 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Federation ceased to exist due to the death or injury of all servicemen, the General Staff of Ukraine reported. “A significant part of those who survived are in an extremely difficult condition. As a result of the counteroffensive of the Défense Forces of Ukraine in several directions, the occupying forces are looking for ways to safely escape from hostilities and possible encirclements.

Ruscists from the 202nd separate motorized rifle regiment, located in the Kharkiv region, withdrew from their positions and moved to the nearest forest strip. The unit was left without commanders and communications. Currently, relatives are calling with requests to contact the command and find out where they should go next. Some of them ask their wives to contact the hotlines of the Ministry of Défense of Russia and the Red Cross with the demand to remove them from the territory of Ukraine.

The occupiers tried to resist the offensive in the Kharkiv direction, shelling the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with tanks and the heavy flamethrower system “Sontsepiok”. However, they suffered serious losses, left their positions and retreated in small groups. They complain about the powerful offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the lack of ammunition and equipment. Due to the lack of logistics, they are retreating in a disorganized manner. Bicycles and scooters taken from the local population are used to leave combat positions. Many soldiers go on foot.”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568706125943349248

Diversionary measures: Russia finally comments on Ukrainian liberation of places in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing RIA Novosti. “The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation claimed that they had relocated troops from Balakliia and Izium in Kharkiv Oblast to the Donetsk front to achieve the goals of the “special military operation”, and also conducted a number of diversionary measures and demonstrative activities.”

According to British Defence Intelligence, (last 48 hours): 

  • Over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have continued to make significant gains in the Kharkiv region. Russia has likely withdrawn units from the area, but fighting continues around the strategically important cities of Kupiansk and Izium.
  • On 07 September 2022, President Putin said that only 60,000 tonnes of the grain exported from Ukraine since August had been sent to developing countries, and that the majority had been delivered to EU states.
  • Putin’s claim is not true. According to UN figures, around 30% has been supplied to low and middle-income countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
  • Russia is pursuing a deliberate misinformation strategy as it seeks to deflect blame for food insecurity issues, discredit Ukraine and minimise opposition to its invasion.
  • Ukrainian forces launched offensive operations in the south of Kharkiv Oblast on 06 September 2022. Lead elements have advanced up to 50km into previously Russian held territory on a narrow front.
  • Russian forces were likely taken by surprise. The sector was only lightly held and Ukrainian units have captured or surrounded several towns. A Russian force around Izium is likely increasingly isolated. Ukrainian units are now threatening the town of Kupiansk; its capture would be a significant blow to Russia because it sits on supply routes to the Donbas front line.
  • With Ukrainian operations also continuing in Kherson, the Russian defensive front is under pressure on both its northern and southern flanks.

Losses of the Russian army 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568651920033595393

As of Sunday 11 September, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

  • Personnel – more than 52650 (+400),
  • Tanks – 2154 (+18),
  • Armoured combat vehicles – 4617 (+33),
  • Artillery systems – 1263 (+4),
  • Multiple rocket launchers –MLRS – 311 (+0),
  • Air defence means – 162 (+0),
  • Aircraft – 242 (+3),
  • Helicopters – 213 (+1),
  • Automotive technology and fuel tanks – 3445  (+19),
  • Vessels/boats – 15 (+0),
  • UAV operational and tactical level – 902 (+4),
  • Special equipment – 117 (+1),
  • Mobile SRBM system – 4 (+0),
  • Cruise missiles – 216 (+1)

Russian enemy suffered the greatest losses (of the last day) at the Kharkiv and Donetsk directions.

According to General SVR (Telegram) in the morning report to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin on Saturday 10 September, the military operational loss of manpower of the personnel of the RF Armed Forces was 56,990 people. This figure, excludes data on the losses of Russian PMCs taking part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine (September 9: 16,152 KIA). Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian National Guard has had 4,216 killed and missing. If accurate, the total number of Russians KIA is 77,358.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568826040960565248

Russia Imported Iranian Drones That Malfunction in Battle, Popular Mechanics reports. “Russia’s first shipment of Iranian military drones is a mixed bag, with some of the drones malfunctioning just weeks after delivery. The drones were pressed into service after heavy losses depleted Moscow’s own fleet. […] At the start of the war, Russia had a formidable drone arsenal. Drones were a key part of the Russian Ground Forces’ “reconnaissance-strike complex” doctrine, which calls for drones to quickly find targets for artillery strikes. […] Six months of war has ground the arsenal down. […] The life of a drone is hazardous and short, with drones typically sent to places deemed too risky for humans. They’re typically lost through air defence fire, small arms fire, operator error, and accidental crashes. Drones are often considered “semi-attritable,” meaning armies expect to lose them at a higher rate than crewed aircraft as the price of doing business. […]

The Washington Post reports that, after several months of negotiations between Russian and Iranian officials, Russia agreed to replenish its ranks by buying a large consignment of homemade Iranian drones. It purchased Mohajer-6, Shahed-129 (pictured above), and Shahed-191 drones, the rough equivalent of Forpost-R and Orion MALE drones. It’s a particularly ironic situation as Russia has for decades supplied Iran with advanced weaponry. […]

Unfortunately for Russia, Iran’s drones are apparently not without their problems. The Washington Post reports that several have malfunctioned in Ukraine, and that “the Russians are not satisfied.” Whether these problems can be fixed in time to be of use remains to be seen. There’s also the question of how long a non-stealthy drone flying at 10,000 feet can survive over Ukraine. Ukraine’s air defence network is largely intact, and it is evidently responsible for downing Russia’s homegrown MALE drones. Ukraine’s air defences are also set to become deadlier than ever, with the imminent deployment of NATO-supplied NASAMS and IRIS-T missile systems.

Russia’s purchase of Iranian drones makes clear that even Moscow believes drones have become an indispensable asset in modern warfare. It also makes clear that Russia’s industrial capacity is not capable of replenishing losses. Finally, it tells us international sanctions are crippling its ability to buy good drones, to the point where it must settle for second-rate Iranian drones. In Ukraine, Russia is between a drone and a hard place, and it won’t get easier for Moscow any time soon.”

Humanitarian 

The US accuses Moscow of forcibly deporting up to 1.6 million Ukrainians, The New York Times reports. “The United States on Wednesday accused Moscow of deporting up to 1.6 million Ukrainians to Russia or Russian-controlled territory and subjecting them to a “filtration” process involving invasive security screening, interrogation, family separation and detention. Thousands of children — including 1,800 in July — have undergone the filtration process, and some have been separated from their parents and placed up for adoption by Russians, the US ambassador to the United Nations said on Wednesday at a Security Council meeting that was requested by the United States and Albania to discuss the forced displacement of Ukrainians.

Ms. Thomas-Greenfield said Russia’s actions amounted to a war crime and a violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which mandates the protection of civilians in conflict zones. […]

The meeting followed a report by Human Rights Watch released last week documenting the forcible transfer of Ukrainians from Mariupol and the Kharkiv region to Russian territory or areas in Ukraine controlled by Russia. The report said Russia’s actions constituted war crimes. Forced transfers and the filtration process constitute and involve separate and distinct abuses against civilians, although many Ukrainian civilians experienced both, the report said.

Ilze Brands Kehris, assistant secretary general for human rights at the United Nations, told the Council that her office had verified cases of the filtration process resulting in “numerous human rights violations, including of the rights to liberty, security of person and privacy.”

Head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine Matilda Bogner as of September 9, via zoom: To date, we have corroborated 14,059 civilian casualties: 5,767 civilians were killed and 8,292 injured by hostilities. As we have repeatedly said, we know that actual numbers are likely considerably higher.

Since 24 February, our Mission has verified that at least 416 people have been victims of arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearances in territory occupied by the Russian Federation or in areas controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated armed groups at the time. Of those, 16 were found dead and 166 released.

️️Environmental 

PM Shmyhal: War has caused more than $340B in damage to Ukraine, Ukrinform reports. “To date, the total amount of damage confirmed by the World Bank is more than 340 billion US dollars. The amount of funds that is verified and necessary for reconstruction is about 105 billion US dollars… The sum will change as the war continues, the destructions, unfortunately, continue, and obviously, we will demand more, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said while answering questions during the annual Yalta European Strategy conference.

He also emphasized once again that the top-priority source of funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine must be the confiscated assets of Russia, not only the state budget of Ukraine and international support. “We call for the adoption of national legislation, to consider the possibility of an international agreement or legislation, which will make it possible to create a new security system in the world when an aggressor understands that it will pay for its unprovoked aggression, and this is critically important,” Shmyhal said.”

Draft IAEA board resolution calls on Russia to leave Zaporizhzhia plant, Reuters reports. “A draft resolution that diplomats say Poland and Canada have prepared ahead of next week’s meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors calls on Russia to cease all actions at Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, the text shows. The draft being circulated among the 35 countries on the Board of Governors, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s top decision-making body, is a follow-up to a resolution that was passed by an emergency board meeting in March and that only Russia and China opposed. read more

As in March, diplomats said the aim was to show Russia is isolated diplomatically and to pressure it to end its occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, where the IAEA says the occupation and shelling from the war pose the risk of a catastrophic nuclear accident.

The draft text seen by Reuters says the board “deplores the Russian Federation’s persistent violent actions against nuclear facilities in Ukraine, including the ongoing presence of Russian forces and Rosatom personnel at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant”, using the spelling of the plant’s name favoured by the IAEA and referring to the Russian nuclear agency Rosatom.”

Legal 

383 children were killed, 747 children injured, 7,461 deported by foe forces, and 233 reported missing – the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports as of September 11. 2,480 educational establishments are damaged as a result of shelling and bombings, 289 of them are destroyed fully. 33,049 crimes of aggression and war crimes and 15,362 crimes against national security were registered.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568646699874414593

Police documenting Russian war crimes in liberated territories of Kharkiv region, Ukrinform reports. “In the territories of the Kharkiv region liberated from the Russian army, law enforcement officers are documenting Russian crimes against the civilian population, including torture and murder.

“After the village of Hrakovo, Chuhuiv district was liberated from the Russian invaders, a local resident called the police. He said that the Russians had forced him to bury two men with gunshot wounds and mutilations in March,” the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine posted on Telegram.”

Ukraine’s Naftogaz initiates new arbitration proceeding against Gazprom, Reuters reports. “Ukraine’s state energy firm Naftogaz said on Friday it had initiated a new arbitration proceeding against Russia’s gas giant Gazprom, saying the Russian firm did not pay for the rendered service of gas transportation through Ukraine.

“We will make Gazprom pay. Naftogaz is also evaluating the possibility of submitting additional requirements,” Naftogaz quoted its CEO Yuriy Vitrenko as saying. Earlier this year, Vitrenko said that Naftogaz could issue a lawsuit against Gazprom which reduced volumes of transit gas below the contracted volumes.”

Support 

Germany plans to send 16 bridge-laying tanks BIBER, 10 anti-aircraft guns GEPARD to Ukraine, Ukrinform reports. “According to the list “Military support for Ukraine” on the website of the German government, Germany plans to supply Ukraine with 16 bridge-laying tanks BIBER, 10 anti-aircraft guns GEPARD, as well as ammunition for them.” German Defense Ministry Spokesman David Helmbold did not specify when this equipment would be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to German Defense Minister, Christine Lambrecht, Germany will also supply Ukraine with a “winter package”: electric generators, thermal clothing, food and field equipment. She also mentioned the training program for the Ukrainian military which will be implemented together with the Netherlands. The range of training courses in the coming months will be expanded taking into account the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Lambrecht announced a new initiative: mine clearance measures.

A course for long-term support of Ukraine set at Ramstein-5, Minister of Defence in Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov reports. […]NATO will organize NSPA training for specialists of the Defense Procurement Agency of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. This is yet another bridge that de facto brings Ukraine closer to the Alliance. […]  

Ukraine has received hundreds of 105-m and 155-mm artillery units and ammo for them. Only for 155-mm ammo, we have 7 types of guns and self-propelled artillery. Ukrainian soldiers are bringing terror upon Russian forces with accurate and indivertible strikes of M142 Himars, M270 MLRS and MARS II. HARM missiles are already leaving Russian forces without radars. Harpoon missiles have joined forces with our “Neptunes”. […]

Shifts have begun in the area of air defence/anti-missile defence. We have already received the Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery units from Germany. Our specialists are completing their training on modern German Iris-T anti-aircraft systems that will soon make our skies safer. A policy decision was made regarding the NASAMS systems. And this is not to mention the armoured vehicles and a substantial amount of other help. All this happened in just 4.5 months.

Only 50 days passed between Ramstein-4 in July and Ramstein-5. […] The increase in the scale of aid as well as the successful actions of the Ukrainian defence forces that have been holding back the Russian invasion for almost 200 days have significantly affected the priorities. Firstly, along with the growing supply of weapons, there comes a question regarding their repair and maintenance. We are talking about spare parts, a repair base and necessary specialists.

Secondly, the countries of the free world did not prepare for a full-scale war on the continent reminiscent of the Second World War. Due to this, the resources of operational assistance which can be provided by our partners at the expense of reserves are limited.

Thirdly and most importantly: thanks to the courage of our defenders and the resilience of the entire Ukrainian nation, it became clear that there is no need to “deter” or “not provoke” Russia. The Kremlin’s evil can be vanquished. All the branches of the defence forces of Ukraine under the command of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi proved in action the things which no one could believe before.

All this implies a correction in strategy. I drew the attention of all those present that the keywords this time were “sustain”, “long-term”, and “training”. Moscow still has a lot of resources. Victory will not come instantly. But it will definitely come. That is why the task of organizing cooperation in the medium and long-term perspective comes to the fore. To give guidelines to our partners, in my speech I focused on the perspectives for the year 2023.

Our goal remains unchanged. It is to restore the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders. For this, in addition to a successful defence and stabilization of the front line, we need to carry out successful counterattacks. And then keep Russia within boundaries. To perform these tasks, the Ukrainian defence forces […] should acquire the appropriate capabilities in qualitative and quantitative terms.

We cannot talk about all the details right now. But among the most important priorities is the development of a three-tier air defence/anti-missile defence system. […].

Consistent efforts are already being made to activate the work of the defence industry. This is needed to replenish the reserves in the countries of the free world and create opportunities to support Ukraine systematically. […] During Ramstein-5, several more steps forward were made in this regard. Given the need to fight back against Russia, the issue of investments in the military industry will soon be considered at a separate session within the framework of NATO. […]

In the context of long-term support, the task of training Ukrainian soldiers has been raised to a qualitatively higher level. The range of our needs is wide: from acquiring individual skills to training as part of battalions, as well as training brigade headquarters. An effective training program initiated by Great Britain and supported by Canada, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and New Zealand is already in place. […]

Just imagine: 30,000 soldiers will be trained within this program alone. They will return to Ukraine completely ready for battle, with knowledge, gear, individual protection etc. This is the backbone of at least 6 brigades. And there are other programs too. Thanks to the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister, Polish Minister of National Defence Mariusz Błaszczak the opportunity to train our soldiers on training grounds in Poland has been created.

At Ramstein-5, I asked to consider the possibility of deploying similar training programs in other neighbouring countries. The idea was immediately supported by a great friend of Ukraine, Slovak Minister of Defence Jaroslav Nad. This will ensure the scaling of the training process, and we will get more trained troops in a short period of time.

In parallel, a training program is being developed with the support of the EU. We have already made specific proposals, including the construction of training centres in Ukraine to combine European resources and technology with practical experience in our army. Then these centres will work in the interests of the whole of Europe. The activation of weapon production and training programs means strengthening the Ukrainian defence forces in the long run. No matter how many unmotivated and poorly armed criminal gangs Russia will bring; they will be engaged by Ukrainian troops that are trained and equipped with modern systems.

We will defeat Russia by qualitative advantages, by relying on the resources of the free world. […] It is a very difficult battle, it is waged on our land, and we bear painful losses. But the price of defeat is the destruction of Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation. And to the main point. During Ramstein, the partners clearly stated: we are here with you until the end of the war, that is until Ukraine’s victory. According to the data we are receiving, more and more Russians are beginning to believe that things around them are going in the wrong way.”

The Lend-Lease model is yet to be established by Ukraine’s partners, Ukrainska Pravda reports, citing RBC-Ukraine. “As of early September, the final concept and details of Lend-Lease are still unknown. The specifics of what this aid programme will be like are still being discussed, says Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine. I’m probably going to disappoint you by saying this, but the final understanding of what Lend-Lease will look like is yet to be formed because our partners have not yet finalised the model for the programme. The decision in principle has been made that there will be Lend-Lease, and Ukraine will be able to buy whatever it needs to win this war, and the budget has been determined. But the nuances and details of what this Lend-Lease will be like are still being discussed.

Whatever I say now may turn out to be totally different in the final version. It is important to mention that the model will most likely be designed by ministers of finance, not ministers of defence, as these are financial relations. My goal is to consult with the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and understand their needs [when they] say they need these particular UAVs or missiles.”

New Developments 

  1. Russia is not ready for Ukraine’s negotiating position, Ukrinform reports. Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the Ukrainian President’s Office, reiterated Ukraine’s negotiating positions. “We formulate them as follows: please leave our entire territory, withdraw all troops […] to the borders internationally recognized in 1991, including the Crimean peninsula, destroy all your illegally constructed objects, including the so-called Kerch Bridge. After that, we will sit down at the negotiating table,” Podoliak said. According to him, the Ukrainian side is ready to talk about three things: “The first is reparations from the point of view of all the losses that Ukraine has suffered. The second is how we exist and coexist, since you [Russia] are neighbours, from the point of view of security for Ukraine. And the third thing is a certain legal responsibility that must be borne by a number of people, including those with Russian citizenship, who committed crimes in Ukraine,” he said..”

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1568592579104579585

  1. Baerbock calls on Moscow to hand back control over ZNPP to Ukraine, Ukrinform “German Federal Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock has called on the Russian side to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) mission to stay at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) for a long time and hand back control over the plant to Ukraine as its sole legal owner. In her words, the situation at Zaporizhzhia NPP is the fault and nonsense of the Russian war, and Europe should not make any concessions.”
  2. EU makes it harder for Russian tourists to enter the bloc from Monday, Reuters “The European Union will make travelling to the bloc more difficult and expensive for Russians from Monday after it formally backed suspending a visa facilitation agreement over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Council of the EU, which groups the bloc’s member states, on Friday adopted a decision to suspend from Sept. 12 the visa deal that has been in force since 2007.”

Assessment 

  1. On the war. 

Map https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20*

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Saturday 10 September, 2022:

 “The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izium. Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat. Ukrainian gains are not confined to the Izium area; Ukrainian forces reportedly captured Velikiy Burluk on September 10, which would place Ukrainian forces within 15 kilometers of the international border. Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of Izium itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. The liberation of Izium would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March. It would eliminate the Russian advance in northwest Donetsk Oblast along the E40 highway that the Russian military sought to use to outflank Ukrainian positions along the Sloviansk – Kramatorsk line. A successful encirclement of Russian forces fleeing Izium would result in the destruction or capture of significant Russian forces and exacerbate Russian manpower and morale issues. Russian war correspondents and milbloggers have also reported facing challenges when evacuating from Izium, indicating Ukrainian forces are at least partially closing a cauldron in some areas.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izium line on September 10, falsely framing the retreat as a “regrouping” of forces to support Russian efforts in the Donetsk Oblast direction – mirroring the Kremlin’s false explanation for the Russian withdrawal after the Battle of Kyiv. The Russian MoD did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes around Kharkiv Oblast as the primary factor for the Russian retreat, and claimed that Russian military command has been carrying out a controlled withdrawal from the Balakliya-Izium area for the past three days. The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Russian forces undertook a number of demonstrative actions and used artillery and aviation to ensure the safety of withdrawing Russian forces. These Russian statements have no relation to the situation on the ground.

The Russian MoD’s inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space. Kremlin-sponsored TV propagandists offered a wide range of confusing explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in Kupiansk. The Kremlin’s propagandists appeared unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports. Guest experts also were unable to reaffirm the hosts’ narratives that Ukrainian successes are not significant for the Donbas axis. Such programming may reveal the true progress of the Russian “special military operation” to the general Russian public that relies on state media and the Russian MoD for updates.

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupiansk-Izium-Lyman Line). Ukrainian forces reached the northern outskirts of Izium on September 10 and will likely recapture the city within the next 48 hours if they have not already. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered Izium and largely reported that Russian forces are withdrawing from the city. Russian sources reported that the Russian military deployed reinforcements to cover a withdrawal from Izium to the left bank of the Oskil River. Ukrainian forces’ northern advance has severed Russian forces’ most significant ground lines of communication (GLOCS) to Izium. Russian forces must now rely on suboptimal paths to the south and southeast that run through difficult terrain and over the Siverskyi Donets and Oskil rivers to withdraw forces.

Ukrainian forces seized the western half of Kupiansk on September 10 and can likely take the rest of the city within 24 hours if they choose to cross the Oskil River. Russian sources reported that Russian forces retreated from western Kupiansk to the east bank of the Oskil River, where, a Russian source claimed, Russian forces can defend Kupiansk’s industrial zone more easily. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating in the eastern half of Kupiansk. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces fleeing east from Kupiansk’s eastern outskirts, suggesting that most or all Russian forces in Kupiansk are withdrawing or have withdrawn to the east, most likely to Svatove, Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces advanced to the southern and southwestern outskirts of Lyman on September 10, where Russian forces are covering the Izium group’s withdrawal. Russian sources reported that Russian forces defended positions in Lyman against Ukrainian advances. Some Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces established positions in small areas of Lyman’s environs, but that the Russian defence holds. Conflicting Russian reports that Russian forces withdrew from Lyman are likely false but attest to the panicked and confused state of the Russian information space about Russian forces’ situation in this area.

Ukrainian forces advanced to positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 10. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces captured Velyky Burlyk at the T2111 and T2114 intersection and Khotomlya on the east bank of the Pechenhy Reservoir. Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces took advantage of the absence of a continuous Russian front line while advancing on Velyky Burluk. Ukrainian forces’ continued quick pace of advance is severing long-held Russian GLOCS that support operations in northern Luhansk Oblast, and their loss will severely hamper Russian and proxy operations.

Russian forces likely no longer hold all of Luhansk Oblast as of September 10. Ukrainian forces likely captured Bilohorivka sometime between September 4 and 10. Russian sources reported that Russian forces withdrew from Bilohorivka sometime on September 4–10. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Lysychansk on September 10. 

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast). Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting positional battles in Kherson Oblast on September 10 but did not disclose specific areas of operation. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced tens of kilometers in some unnamed areas of Kherson Oblast and noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is pushing Russian forces to retreat to their second lines of defenses. Humenyuk added that Russian forces continue to resist Ukrainian attacks and retain ammunition and supplies on the frontlines, but Russian units are suffering heavy losses. […]Humenyuk and other Ukrainian military officials reiterated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaign by striking Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCS), ammunition depots and key positions to further weaken the reportedly 25,000- to 35,000-strong group of Russian troops on the Dnipro River’s right bank. […]

Social media footage of strikes, explosions, and activated Russian air defense systems indicates Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian logistics in Kherson Oblast continued on September 10. Kherson City Telegram channels and media outlets reported a powerful explosion at a local military recruitment centre in Kherson City, which housed newly arrived Russian personnel and military staff. Ukrainian sources also reported explosions in Kherson City’s industrial zone and in the area of the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. Local reports also indicate that Russian forces are continuing to use barges to transport equipment to and from Kherson City.

Ukrainian military officials also noted the arrival of additional Russian troops to central Kherson Oblast, which will reinforce occupied positions. Russian forces reportedly deployed an unspecified 1,300-person-strong Chechen unit to Kherson Oblast. It is possible that the Chechen units may be newly formed volunteer battalions or are at least in part staffed by new recruits. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian intelligence previously noted that new arrivals are older and inexperienced men, which fits the profile of Russian volunteer recruits. […]

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified four areas of kinetic activity along the Kherson Oblast administrative border: west of Kherson City, near Snihurivka (about 60km east of Mykolaiv City), southeast of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izium itself in the next 48 hours.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izium line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.
  • The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izium’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupiansk.
  • Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.
  • Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.

Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.”

Milley: Russian strategic objectives in Ukraine have been defeated, The Hill reports. “Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Thursday said Russia’s strategic objectives in its attack on Ukraine have “been defeated.” The war is not over, but so far the Russian strategic objectives have been defeated, Milley said at a news conference alongside Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

Despite being outgunned and outmanned, the Ukrainians have demonstrated superior tactical proficiency and they’ve demonstrated a superior will to fight, fight for their own country, fight for their freedom, Milley added. 

Russia in April began an offensive in the easternmost part of Ukraine known as the Donbas after failing to take the capital of Kyiv early in the invasion. Milley, who allowed that Moscow has achieved “minor tactical success in various parts of eastern Ukraine,” attributed the falters in the Kremlin’s offensive to unsuccessful operational objectives and a very successful defense conducted by Ukraine. They have not achieved all of the Donbas, and they have only crossed the Dnipro River in the south in the vicinity of Kherson, he said of Russian forces.”

  1. Consequences and what to do? 

The US will host “senior armaments directors” from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Defense News reports. “At the start of a Thursday meeting with senior officials from allied countries at the United States’ Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Austin announced that in the coming weeks, the US will host “senior armaments directors” from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. They will discuss how our defense industrial bases can best equip Ukraine’s future forces with the capabilities that they need.

Many countries continue to dig deep and provide equipment out of their own military stocks. That can mean purchasing new equipment from their own defense industries, or even purchasing new equipment from other countries that they can send to Ukraine, Austin told the meeting […]. Austin said the countries working together should be able to “streamline processes,” shorten acquisition timelines and share best practices. The remarks come as Austin has launched an effort within the Pentagon to fast-track the foreign military sales process. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) generally allows recipients to purchase US-made defense equipment, and the State Department, which administers FMF, said Thursday that the aid is meant to help countries backfill weapons and equipment they have sent to Ukraine. […]

In the immediate term, FMF will be used to cover wartime requirements of the AFU to provide them with the means necessary to win the war against the Russian Federation, a State Department spokesman said. Of the loans, $1 billion will be made available for Ukraine. The rest will be divided among 18 other countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. […]

Austin said the group gathered to renew its long-term commitment to military support. We will work together to help integrate Ukraine’s capabilities and bolster its joint operations for the long haul,” Austin told the meeting. We’ll work together to upgrade our defence industrial bases to meet Ukraine’s requirements for the long haul. And we’ll work together for production and innovation to meet Ukraine’s self-defence needs for the long haul.”

 

Here’s what global weapons chiefs will discuss this month in Brussels, Defense News reports.  “A US-led meeting of armaments directors from around the world will take place in Brussels on Sept. 28, the Pentagon’s acquisitions chief said Friday. The meeting, coordinated with NATO, will be under the auspices of the 50-nation Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which is dedicated to arming Ukraine in its ongoing fight against Russia’s invasion. The US invited the armaments directors of the member nations to the upcoming huddle, Bill LaPlante told reporters.

In looking beyond arming Ukraine for its current fight, the US is taking a lead role in establishing a longer-term weapons pipeline to allies and partners. […] In Brussels, officials will compare notes on how to ramp up production of key capabilities, as well as discuss the state of supply chains for microelectronics, solid rocket motors and other components, LaPlante said. They will also talk about ways to “increase interoperability between our systems [and] what I would call increased interchangeability,” he added. […]

Just as efforts to send billions of dollars’ worth of arms to Ukraine has forced conversations in the US about the strengths and weaknesses of the American defense-industrial base, top US officials are expanding that conversation to other partners in the fight ― and they’re hoping for candor. People are sort of in the same position we are, but I should remind everybody the scale of the United States defense enterprise is just something very different than what our partners and allies have, LaPlante said. I think that’s one of the topic areas: to compare notes and see where people are. […].

Meanwhile, the US is seeing demand in Europe for the kinds of weapons Ukraine is using against Russian forces, like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System made by Lockheed Martin. Pentagon officials say that will likely fuel future requests for US arms transfers, possibly through the recently announced Foreign Military Financing package.

I don’t think we know yet exactly what each of these countries might be asking for, said Sasha Baker, the US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy This is sort of the starting gun for that process. But I think certainly they’re looking to learn lessons from what they’re seeing in Ukraine and then apply them for their own security.”

Hans Petter Midttun: Social media is ripe with reports of Ukrainian advances and Russian collapse. There are claims of fighting in Izium, Lyman, Lysychansk and at Donetsk Airport, the seizure of Kupiansk and Velyky Burlyk, and Russian forces fleeing in disorder.

According to the President of Ukraine, Ukraine has liberated more than 2,000 square kilometres since the offensive started on 6 September. ISW, however, assesses that Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometres in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometres of territory – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April. In some areas, they are presently within 15 kilometres of the international border.

The number of Russians killed in action is staggering. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 52,650 dead. Other credible (but unconfirmed) sources indicate more than 77,000 when counting both regular forces, Russian PMCs and National Guard. A leaked letter from the Russian Finance Ministry says that as of 28. August, 361.4 billion rubles have been paid to the families of the deceased. According to the letter, the family of each fallen soldier received 7.4 million rubles. If the letter is authentic, this means that they acknowledge 48,759 confirmed dead. Since Russia is not counting its proxy forces (DNR, LNR, PMC, Chechens, Georgian and Syrian) the actual numbers are far higher. Russia is presently losing about 3,000 men each week.

Mark Hertling put the losses in proper perspective: This is the “equivalent of 3 US combat divisions (think 82d Airborne, 101st Air Assault, 1st Armored). The US has 11 active divisions.”

We have just witnessed one of the most spectacular military offensives in the 21st century. And it is not yet finished. In the next couple of days, we will know if the  Russian forces managed to re-organise and reinforce the frontline to stop the advance and counter-attack, or if we are witnessing a broader collapse opening for further Ukrainian opportunities.

We will also know if the Ukrainian Armed Forces can sustain the offensive and protect the newly formed frontline. Going on the offensive will greatly increase both its consumption of ammunition as well as its casualties.

Either way, the psychological impact of recent events in both Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast will have a huge impact on both sides of the frontline. For the Russian Armed Forces, already suffering from low morale and motivation, technical problems, bad logistics and leadership, and lack of air support, the last week will further weaken its resolve. For Ukrainian soldiers fighting a just war, September has brought success that will further lift their battle spirit.

That said, the offensive comes with costs. Russia has deployed around 300,000 soldiers (all categories) to Ukraine that – effectively or not – will continue to fight. My heart and mind, therefore, go to the very many Ukrainians that will pay the ultimate price as victory is inching closer.

Additionally, as we are rejoicing in the face of the amazing Ukrainian success, it is crucial to remind ourselves that a victory on the ground is not enough.

To ensure an economical viable Ukraine – crucial for its future independence and sovereignty – the maritime blockade needs to be broken and its cities need to be protected against Russian missiles and airstrikes. In essence, Russia must be defeated to a point where it no longer poses a threat to Ukraine and Europe.

Ukraine has nothing more to prove. Give them combat aircraft, ATACMS, modern battle tanks, and everything else they need to win this war quickly and decisively. Re-establish NATO presence in the Black Sea.

Equally important, make Ukraine a NATO member. Ukraine would help strengthen the Alliance. It will help rebuild NATO deterrence and, therefore, deter further Russian transgressions. It would be a bold decision rendering the Russian nuclear “fait accompli” strategy useless.

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