Morning report day 112 – June 15: Operational situation
An overview of the military situation according to military expert Roman Ponomarenko:
In the Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy is fighting in the area of Verkhnyi Saltov, Ternova, Rubizhne, and Tsupovka.
In the Izium region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced to Izium from the west for the second day in a row. The villages of Spivakivka and Zavod have allegedly been liberated today, Izium City Council deputy Maksym Strelnyk reports.
In the Sloviansk region, there are battles in the north for the sector Dovhenke — Krasnopillya, and in the northeast — for Bohorodychne and Dolyna, with half of Bohorodychne seized by the Russian troops. The area of Rayhorodka and Siverska is stable.
In the Luhansk Oblast, the Sievierodonetsk garrison is surrounded, it is supplied by boat through the Siverskyi Donets. The Russian military has an advantage in artillery and aviation.
To the north of Popasna, the Russians seem to have taken Komyshevakha and Vrubivka, and are now trying to take Zolote. Fighting also continues in Toshkivka and Ustynivka, south of Lysychansk. The supply of Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk is currently carried out via a relatively safe road Bakhmut — Siversk — Lysychansk. The Russians are reinforcing their position in this direction.
No changes in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, perhaps temporarily.
In the Kherson Oblast, the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army is reported in several areas. General Dmytro Marchenko noted that the liberation of Kherson will be a challenge and will require significant human and material resources not available at the moment. “Every area was shot at and everything was mined.” The Russian army has a great advantage in artillery.
Information from the General Staff as of 06.00 09.06.2022, supplemented by its [18:00 assessment] is in the drop-down menu.
The operational update regarding the Russian invasion as of 06.00 am, on June 15, 2022. Day 112.
In the Volyn and Polissya areas, up to seven battalions of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are focusing on reconnaissance and engineering positions. The threat of missile and air strikes from the territory of the Republic of Belarus remains.
In the Siversky direction, the enemy fired on civilian infrastructure in the settlements of Sopych, Baranivka, Ulanovo and Bachivsk, Sumy oblast. It conducted air reconnaissance of UAVs near the Seredynna Buda in the Sumy Oblast.
In the Kharkiv direction, enemy units, with the support of army helicopters, tried to prevent further advance of our troops to the State Border. The enemy fired on civilian infrastructure in the areas of the settlements of Peremoha, Ruska Lozova, Stara Hnylytsia, Bayrak, Verkhniy Saltiv and Zamulivka. The Russian troops launched an air strike near Mospanov. Fighting continues near the village of Rubizhne.
In the Sloviansk direction, the enemy’s main efforts are focused on continuing the offensive on Sloviansk. The Russian troops carried out artillery shelling in the areas of the settlements of Shevelivka, Virnopillya, Hrushuvakha, and Nova Pavlivka. They launched an air strike near Husarivka. The assaults in the areas of the settlements of Bohorodychne and Dolyna were successfully repulsed by our soldiers. The enemy is advancing in the direction of Krasnopillya; fighting continues.
In the Donetsk direction, the enemy cynically fired artillery at the settlements of Ustynivka, Toshkivka, New York, Novomykhailivka, Antonivka, and Kamyanski Dachi.
The occupiers did not take any active action in the Lyman direction. Artillery shelling of civilian infrastructure near Sydorove, Mayaky and Zakitne was carried out.
In the Sievierodonetsk direction, the enemy fired at our positions with mortars, artillery and multiple rocket launchers and fired on civilian infrastructure in the settlements of Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Toshkivka, Ustynivka, Borivske, and Metelkino. An enemy army aircraft struck near Bila Hora.
Ukrainian soldiers successfully repel enemy’s attempts to storm Sievierodonetsk and Toshkivka; fighting continues.
In the Bakhmut direction, the enemy shelled our positions in the areas of Spirne, Yakovlivka, Pokrovske, Klynove and Novoluhansk. An air strike by army aircraft was recorded near Ustynivka. Thanks to the actions of our soldiers, the enemy’s offensive in the area of Mykolaivka was choked. The enemy suffered losses and retreated. Regroups to resume the offensive. Using the results of the fire, the enemy carried out assault operations in the areas of settlements Zolote-3, Novoluhansk, Berestove. It suffered losses and retreated to previously occupied positions. Conducts assault operations near Vrubivka, fighting continues.
In the Novopavlivsk direction, the defenders of Ukraine repulsed the offensive near the village of Shevchenko. The enemy retreated.
The enemy did not conduct active hostilities in the Avdiivka, Kurakhiv and Zaporizhzhia areas. It fired on civilian infrastructure in the areas of Pisky, Avdiivka, Ilyinka, Marinka, Antonivka, Chervone and Novosilka. It launched an air strike near Kamyanske.
In the South Buh direction, the enemy fired on the settlements of Topolyne, Lepetykha, Bereznehuvate, Kobzartsi, Shevchenkove, Posad-Pokrovskye and Lupareve. It struck an air strike near Knyazivka.
Russian aggressor continues to block civilian shipping in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. Three Caliber missile launchers are ready for the use of missile weapons in the Black Sea.
In the regions
In Donbas, Russian forces have taken about 80% of the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk, reports the Associated Press. Residents cannot evacuate due to the intense shelling, according to the Luhansk governor Serhiy Haidai. According to Sievierodonetsk Administration Head Oleksandr Striuk, all three city bridges were destroyed, but roads to the city still exist. The Russian Army is razing the Azot plant where 540-560 civilians are reported to shelter. President Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces were suffering “painful losses” defending the Donbas region, and warned that the outcome of the Donbas battle would determine the course of the war, reports The Guardian.
Situation gets more difficult for Ukranian defenders in Luhansk Oblast, are defending from three sides- RegHead Haidai
Battles are ongoing in Sievierodonetsk, Toshkivka, a part of Vrubivka, many are wounded in Lysychansk. Many buildings destroyed https://t.co/saxo4Bzoor pic.twitter.com/sfprl4WCW2
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 15, 2022
In the Kharkiv Oblast, the Russian Army struck on Malinovka, the regional prosecutor’s office reported. Three people were injured.
In the Sumy Oblast, the Russian army shelled three communities overnight, using mortars and artillery. According to District Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, one civil infrastructure facility was damaged.
In the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the Russian troops hit Apostolovo from Hurricanes; four dead, as announced by the head of the ACV of Kryvyi Rih Alexander Vilkul.
At least four civilians were killed and one injured in the Kryvyi Rih Oblast, reports Current Time.
In the Odesa Oblast, Ukrainian Air Defense shot down two Onyx missiles launched by Russian forces from occupied Crimea, according to Operational Command South.
In the Kherson Oblast, the authorities cautiously talk about the successes of the Ukrainian army, according to Current Time. In the area of Mykolaivka, Ukrainian troops shot down a Russian helicopter using MANPAD.
Residents of occupied Kherson Oblast refused to join the Russian militia: only four residents out of 10,000 in Chaplynka agreed to join the militia established by Russian troops to maintain order, according to the National Resistance Center.
Russian occupiers say they will Russify education in Kherson Oblast, starting from September 1. According military analyst Roman Ponomarenko, “they promise that from September 1, education will be translated into Russian standards, education will be in Russian, they will study according to Russian textbooks. The question remains whether the Ukrainian language will be taught and whether all local teachers will agree to serve the occupiers.”
The Mykolaiv Oblast which borders Kherson is under constant shelling of Russian Uragan and Smerch rocket launchers, according to Current Time.
In the Lviv Oblast, fragments of the shot-down Russian missile fell on a brickyard, injuring four people, including one child, according to the Lviv region authorities. Ukrainian Air Defense also shot down Russian missiles over Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil Oblast. President Zelenskyy reacted to the attacks on western Ukraine, stating that the country needs an anti-missile defense system.
The UK Intelligence reports that “Russia’s operational main effort remains the assault against the Sievierodonetsk pocket in the Donbas and its Western group of forces have likely made small advances in the Kharkiv sector for the first time in several weeks.”
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1536581362882433027
RUSSIAN COMBAT LOSSES
HUMANITARIAN
Ukraine received bodies of 64 more fallen Azovstal defenders. The bodies of 64 Azovstal soldiers were returned to Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia swapped bodies of servicemen in the Zaporizhzhia region. The process is ongoing under the rules of the Geneva Convention. On June 9, the bodies of 58 fallen Azovstal defenders were delivered to Kyiv
Thirty countries are assisting Ukraine with demining its territory. “Ukraine has received 40,000 tons of demining aid over 100 days of the war, including about 400 rescue fire trucks, special equipment, and clothing for rescuers,” said Internal Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Aliona Matvieieva
Ukraine struggles to evacuate civilians from Sievierodonetsk. More than 500 civilians are trapped inside the Azot chemical factory, where Ukrainian forces have resisted weeks of Russia’s assaults and bombardment in the city.
ENVIRONMENT
Russia weaponizing food, says Presidential chief of staff Yermak. “Russia is creating a food crisis and trying to sell stolen Ukrainian grain, particularly to African countries. Russia seeks to simultaneously destroy its market rival and increase its influence in the region through blackmail. We are grateful to the White House, which works with the governments of the region to prevent stolen grain sales. Adopting a Ukrainian ports unblocking strategy ASAP is a crucial issue,” tweeted The Ukrainian President’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak.
EU will consider providing Ukraine with grain storage. Decisions may help preserve crops and ensure grain export. “Support for territorial integrity is a guarantee of global food security,” Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Markiian Dmytrasevych said.
UK calls on Russia to allow re-opening of Ukrainian ports. Mr Justin Addison, UK delegation to the OSCE, called on “President Putin to allow the re-opening of the ports at Odesa in Ukraine and allow food to flow freely.”
US working on a plan to deliver grain from Ukraine by rail. “We’re going to build silos, temporary silos in the borders of Ukraine, including in Poland. So we can transfer [grain] from those cars into those silos into cars in Europe and get it out into the ocean, and get it out across the world,” President Biden told about the plan, adding that this is taking time.
Ukrainian grain shippers have carved out a fresh export route — via the Baltic Sea — to send their crops abroad. “The country has been hunting for alternative paths for its crops as the war with Russia cuts off vital shipments from ports dotting the Black Sea, stoking global food prices and raising worries over hunger. Producers have resorted to sales by land instead, ferrying grain by railway, road, and river to European Union neighbors.
An initial Ukrainian corn cargo sent via Romania to Spain — a major buyer — was recorded in April, and Spain now has received its first cargo from Poland, according to Ramon Castro, a spokesman for Puerto A Coruña. The vessel Alppila arrived there Monday carrying 18,000 tons of corn that were hauled by trucks from Ukraine, he said,” Bloomberg reports.
A turbine for Nordstream 1 is stuck in Canada due to sanctions; Germany tries to get it delivered for continued operation of the gas pipeline. Russia has reduced gas flow through the pipeline down by 40%, claiming that the reason for the reduced flow is the turbine, which did not return from maintenance. According to SPIEGEL, the EU Commission has contacted the Ministry of Economics and the Canadian government to obtain an exemption from Canadian sanctions, which prevents delivery of the turbine.
LEGAL
As reported by the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), from “4 a.m. on 24 February 2022, when the Russian Federation’s armed attack against Ukraine started, to 24:00 midnight on 13 June 2022 (local time), 9,931 civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine, including 4,432 killed and 5,499 injured.
Russian troops stole almost 2,000 tons of grain in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The Prosecutor General’s Office says it investigates two criminal cases of violations of the laws and customs of war in the region.
SUPPORT
Ukraine received 10% of the assistance it needs from partners – Ministry of Defense. Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine Hanna Maliar said on air of the national newscast that Ukraine has received 10% of what Ukraine stated is necessary. She noted that Ukraine uses up 5-6 thousand artillery shells in a day, while Russia uses 10 times more.
“Ukraine is using all its forces and power to resist Russia today. Russia has considerably larger armament capabilities and a larger number of servicemen. Thus, no matter how much effort Ukraine makes, no matter how professional our army is, we will not be able to win this war without our partners’ help,” she said. She called to establish clear deadlines for this aid.
EU cuts off 3 more Russian banks from SWIFT. Starting June 14, 2022, the EU removes the largest Russian bank Sberbank, as well as Rosselkhozbank, and the Moscow Credit Bank from the SWIFT system as a part of the sixth package of sanctions against Russia.
US banks JPMorgan and Goldman halted Russian debt trading, according to Bloomberg. Last week, the US banned investors from buying Russian debt and stocks on the secondary market.
President Zelenskyy calls for more long-range artillery. He said that Ukraine does not have enough “weapons that really hit the range that we need to reduce the advantage of the Russian Federation’s equipment” and needs more long-range weaponry including tanks and drones.
Germany pledged in May to supply Kyiv with seven self-propelled howitzers and the Netherlands has promised five such artillery systems, according to Reuters reports. Berlin’s defense minister said German howitzers will be ready soon, writes Defense One.
The US will send more rocket systems to Ukraine “We’re going to provide Ukrainians what they need to prosecute the targets inside the territory,” Colin Kahl, US undersecretary of defense for policy said, calling 4 HIMARS sent so far “an initial tranche,” reports the Washington Post.
The US also expects announcements of more weapons being sent to Ukraine in a meeting of nearly fifty countries in Brussels. In June, the US announced the weapons package, including HiMARS, a system capable of launching a barrage of rockets & missiles, writes CNN.
Pentagon believes Ukraine will survive Russian invasion. “US defense leaders believe Ukraine will survive Russia’s invasion and are already planning on how to arm the country for the long-term, said the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian official. ‘I think what we can assure ourselves today is that there will be a country called Ukraine. It will be a sovereign country and that country will have a military that will need to defend it,’ Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said Monday. “And so as we look ahead, we’re thinking through what are the kinds of capabilities that the Ukrainians need to protect themselves over the long term,” writes Defense One.
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
- Ukraine bans six pro-Russian parties. “The political forces carried out anti-Ukrainian activities, promoted the war, and also created real threats to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine,” the Security Service of Ukraine informs. The 8th Lviv Administrative Court of Appeal banned the Nashi party founded by ex-MP Yevhen Muraiev. The party assets are transferred to the ownership of the state.
- Court seized UAH 30 million assets from a company owned by Russian businessmen in Kirovohrad District. Police found that the owners, Russian citizens, sold extracted products to companies of the so-called Transnistrian Republic and Russia.
- Ukraine, EU agree on the final draft of Agreement on the liberalization of road transport. Signing of the agreement eliminates the need to obtain appropriate permits on a permanent basis and will prevent Ukrainian products from being stopped at road checkpoints.
- US President Joe Biden extended US sanctions against Belarus authorities by one year.
Assessment On the War
The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Wednesday 14 June:
The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Head of Logistics for the Belarusian Armed Forces Major General Andrei Burdyko announced that the exercise will involve military authorities, unspecified military units, and logistics organizations and is intended to improve the coherency of command-and-control and logistics support to increase the overall level of training and practical skills of personnel in a “dynamically changing environment.” Despite the launch of this exercise, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine due to the threat of domestic unrest that President Alexander Lukashenko faces if he involves already-limited Belarusian military assets in combat. Any Belarusian entrance into the war would also likely provoke further crippling sanctions on Belarus. Any unsupported Belarusian attack against northern Ukraine would likely be highly ineffective, and the quality of Belarusian troops remains low. ISW will continue to monitor Belarusian movements but does not forecast a Belarusian entrance into the war at this time.
Russian authorities may be accelerating plans to annex occupied areas of Ukraine and are arranging political and administrative contingencies for control of annexed territories. Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial” division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale.[3] The proposed scheme divides Ukrainian oblasts into Russian “territorial districts” and suggests the manner in which Russian authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally outlined a series of indicators that he claimed suggest that Russian authorities are planning to annex occupied Donetsk Oblast as soon as September 1, 2022.[4] Andryushchenko stated that the leadership of occupied Donetsk has entirely passed from authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) to Russian officials and that Russian educational authorities are already referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as regions of Russia. Andryushchenko additionally stated that the financial and legal systems in occupied Donetsk have already transitioned to Russian systems. Despite the apparent lack of a Kremlin-backed mandate concerning the condition of occupied areas, Russian authorities are likely pushing to expedite a comprehensive annexation process in order to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and integrate them into Russia’s political and economic environment. However, the Kremlin retains several options in occupied Ukrainian territory and is not bound to any single annexation plan.
The Russian military leadership continues to expand its pool of eligible recruits by manipulating service requirements. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok suggested that Russian authorities are preparing to increase the age limit for military service from 40 to 49 and to drop the existing requirement for past military service to serve in tank and motorized infantry units.[5] If true, the shift demonstrates the Kremlin’s increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of their poor skills. Kotyenok echoed calls made by other milbloggers to reduce the health requirements for those serving in rear and support roles. Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will likely continue efforts to expand the pool of eligible recruits, even at the cost of high-quality military personnel.
Key Takeaways
- Russian military authorities are pursuing options to increase the available pool of eligible recruits to account for continued personnel losses in Ukraine.
- Russian forces are continuing to fight for control of the Azot industrial plant and have destroyed all bridges between Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, likely to isolate the remaining Ukrainian defenders within the city from critical lines of communication.
- Russian forces continue to prepare for offensive operations southeast of Izium and west of Lyman toward Sloviansk.
- Russian forces are continuing offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut near the T1302 highway to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations to push Ukrainian troops away from frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
- Ukrainian counterattacks have forced Russian troops on the Southern Axis to take up and strengthen defensive positions.
