Russo-Ukrainian war, day 36: Russia prepares occupation authorities, Putin’s rating grows

Morning report day 36 – March 31

The report is based on media reports, expert analyses, and official information posted online.

Situation

According to information from the General Staff as of 06.00 31.03.2022, supplemented by its [midnight assessment]:

During the last 24 hours, the Ukrainian General Staff has reported on the Russian manning and logistic challenges:

• The moral and psychological condition of the Russian troops and the level of motivation of the personnel of the occupying forces to take part in hostilities remains low and tends to deteriorate. According to the available information, two platoon commanders were removed from their positions in the units of the 60th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 5th all-military army of the Eastern Military District due to non-fulfilment of the order to conduct hostilities. The Deputy Commander of the Brigade for Military and Political Work is scheduled to arrive in the area of combat missions of the BTGr unit in Yasynivka, Donetsk region.
• Numerous cases of refusal to continue service and reluctance to sign contracts with conscripts have been reported in units of the Baltic Fleet, in particular the 79th Detached Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 11th Army Corps.
• [According to available information, the command of the armed forces of the Russian Federation with the beginning of the armed aggression against Ukraine lost several military leaders from among senior officers, namely: Commander of the 1st Panzer Army Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, removed from office; Commander of the 6th General Army Lieutenant General Vladislav Yershov, removed from office and arrested; Chief of Staff – Deputy Commander of the 35th All-Military Army, Major General Sergei Nirkov, was seriously wounded; Chief of Staff – Deputy Commander of the 36th General Army, Major General Andrei Seritsky, was seriously wounded; Deputy Commander of the 41st All-Military Army, Lieutenant General Andriy Sukhovetsky, died; Commander of the 49th General Army Lieutenant General Yakov Ryazantsev, died; Commander of the 58th All-Military Army, Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zusk, was removed from office and arrested.]
• [According to the available data, the vast majority of conscripts of the Eastern Military District remained in the permanent deployment points of military units and subdivisions, which indicates the exhaustion of opportunities for the formation of additional units.]
• The Russian forces have significant difficulties with the introduction of combat equipment removed from long-term storage. Thus, according to available information, a significant amount of inoperable equipment was found in the 163rd Tank Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division. The Russian forces are considering the possibility of transporting faulty equipment to the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region with the help of tractors, for its further restoration.
• [Yesterday, in the Russian city of Belgorod, due to neglect of safety rules and violation of the requirements for the transportation of ammunition, its unauthorized detonation took place. This situation is an example of the typical mass use of obsolete dangerous munitions by Russian servicemen, including during the Second World War. Only yesterday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine warned of the threat of self-detonation of ammunition, a huge number of which Russia has set up in the area of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Russia must withdraw its troops from the Chornobyl zone immediately.]

Telegram channels of the Russian city of Belgorod, bordering Kharkiv obl, report explosions on the outskirts of the city.

There is no confirmed or official information at this time. According to some reports, the explosions took place in ammunition depots pic.twitter.com/esvFVtJ2yq

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 29, 2022

• [The Russian forces’ military command continues to send servicemen from military support units, including educational institutions due to the need to recruit units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation involved in the war against Ukraine and suffered significant losses.]
• [The Russian forces personnel are demoralized and have low motivation to take part in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. Thus, according to available information, the attempts of the Russian military command to mobilize “volunteers” do not have the support of the population. In particular, only 17 so-called “volunteers” were recruited in the Kaliningrad region.]

As of Wednesday 31.03.2022, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the war to the present day:

• personnel – more than 17,500 people (+200),
• tanks – 614 units (+9),
• armoured combat vehicles – 1735 units (+13),
• artillery systems – 311 (+6),
• multiple rocket launchers – 96 (no change)
• air defence means – 54 (no change),
• aircraft – 135 (+4),
• helicopters – 131 (+2),
• automotive technology – 1201 (+17),
• vessels/boats – 7 units (no change),
• fuel and lubricant tanks – 75 (no change),
• UAV operational and tactical level – 83 (+2)
• Special equipment – 22 (+1)
• Mobile SRBM system – 4 (no change)

Humanitarian

According to UNHCR 4,019,287 refugees has been registered as of 29 March. The UN says that so far Poland has taken in 2,336,799 refugees, Romania 608,936, the Republic of Moldova 387,151, Hungary 364,804, Russian Federation 350,632, Slovakia 281,172, and Belarus 10,902. After crossing the border to the abovementioned countries, many refugees have been relocated to other countries. The Republic of Lithuania alone has received around 36.000.As of March 29, OHCHR has recorded 3,090 civilian casualties in the country: 1,189 killed (108 children) and 1,901 injured (142 children).Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine reports that as of today, 10,224 children from vulnerable categories have been evacuated due to large-scale hostilities related to the large-scale military invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine. Of these,

• 6,548 children are orphans, children deprived of parental care and other children who are in 24-hour institutional care facilities under the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Education, and the Ministry of Social Policy.
• Another 3,676 evacuees are children from vulnerable categories who are in family care: foster care, family-type orphanages, foster care, foster care.
• 4,425 children have been relocated to safe areas within Ukraine.
• 5,799 children were relocated abroad.

All evacuated children are safe, they are provided with housing, food, medical and educational services.All three agreed humanitarian corridors partially worked on March 30. 1530 civilians in total were able to use the agreed humanitarian corridors from Mariupol, Berdiansk, Melitopol, Enerhodar, Polohy, Orykhiv, Hulaypole and Vasylivka in their private transport only. Russian forces blocked the evacuation buses and humanitarian aid from entering the settlements, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine said.

Environmental

An initiative is being launched in Ukraine to help prevent a food crisis during the war, Ukrainska Pravda reports.The war on the territory of Ukraine makes it impossible to use all agricultural lands, which could later lead to a food crisis.According to experts, due to hostilities in 2022, Ukraine may lose:

• about 42% of the annual harvest of cereals and legumes;
• 53% of buckwheat harvest;
• 68% of tomato harvest;
• 36% of potato harvest;
• 46% of the onion harvest;
• 38% of carrot harvest;
• 45% of the cucumber harvest;
• 32% of cabbage harvest;
• 35% of the harvest of beets and many other crops.

“The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and the Ministry of Community Development calls on Ukrainians to use all plots of land as efficiently as possible. To intensify this process, the agencies want to implement the All-Ukrainian initiative “Gardens of Victory“. Its goal is to effectively use every piece of land where you can grow crops, which will help reduce the risk of an acute food crisis.”

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been occupied by the Russian military units since 4 March 2022. The personnel and their families are under constant psychological pressure due to the presence of hostile military occupiers at the site and the city. Cases of detention of the NPP personnel by Russian invaders for interrogation have been registered.Psychological and physical pressure on the NPP personnel and their families significantly increases the probability of personnel error, which in turn can lead to emergencies and accidents. Two ZNPP units are operating at power, the rest are under repair and in standby mode. No changes in the radiological situation have been registered.

Legal

The UN appoints a commission to investigate allegations of war crimes in Ukraine, The New York Times reports. The UN on Wednesday appointed a commission to investigate accusations of war crimes and other abuses committed in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to identify the people responsible.

“The three-person panel, named by the UN Human Rights Council on Wednesday, was appointed for an initial period of a year to “establish the facts circumstances and root causes” of any crimes. The announcement followed a resolution passed early this month by the Human Rights Council, creating a commission of inquiry into the war. The council picked Erik Mose, a Norwegian judge and former president of the international criminal tribunal that prosecuted perpetrators of Rwanda’s genocide, to chair the new panel’s investigations.”

Overall registered numbers of crimes: 3411 crimes of aggression and war crimes, and 1954 crimes against national security.Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine reports that as of a.m. on March 30, 2022, since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 145 children were killed and more than 222 children – injured. It is still impossible to establish the actual numbers due to the ongoing combat operations.Ukrainian sappers confirm that the occupiers are using the latest anti-personnel mines POM-3 “Medallion”, which is produced only by Russia. These mines are banned by the 1997 Ottawa International Convention, Ukrayinska Pravda reports. It was signed by 169 countries, but not Russia.The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has again released information on Russian servicemen on its websites, this time from the 1327th Centre for the use of Intelligence Units and Special Forces units of the GRU (military unit 25908).The Republic of Belarus continues to deny participation in the war against Ukraine, freely providing territories for the Russian Armed Forces, airfields and transport networks, as well as locations for cruise and ballistic missile launchers. At the same time, under international legal acts, an aggressor can be considered “a country that provides its airspace, its territory for strikes on a third country, according to the General Staff of Ukraine”

Support

Ukraine has submitted to the US Congress a list of necessary military assistance, the European Truth reports. The list includes

• reconnaissance and strike drones (including the so-called “kamikaze drones”),
• tactical radars,
• electronic warfare systems against drones,
• and combat aircraft, including the Su-25.
• The list also includes artillery systems, anti-aircraft missile systems, Javelin anti-tank missiles, anti-ship missiles and optical surveillance equipment.
• In addition, Ukraine is asking for assistance in treating wounded troops and repairing equipment, including mobile military medical hospitals.
• Ukraine is asking for help in repairing armoured vehicles in neighbouring countries, as well as aircraft for transporting weapons.

The Government has developed 9 main directions of how the country will live, work, accumulate resources, defend itself in a full-scale war, according to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.

1. Security. Providing the defence forces with everything necessary. Cash payments, weapons, equipment, food, fuel, development of the military-industrial complex. All resources are primarily directed to the Armed Forces.
2. Food Security. Strategic food stocks are formed several years ahead in Ukraine, farmers are provided with assistance, a program of free distribution of key social products in frontline cities was launched.
3. Economy. A New Economic Policy, including measures such as drastic reduction of taxes, complete deregulation for business, abolition of import VAT, and import duties.
4. Social assistance programs and ePidtrymka, including indexation of pensions, advance payment of pension in regions where hostilities are taking place. Ukraine covers all the social benefits. Under the ePidtrymka program, the Government pays UAH 6,500 to those who lost their jobs. 3.5 million citizens have already received such assistance.
5. Assistance to IDPs program, including economic support to families that host displaced citizens. IDPs receive monthly UAH 2,000 for adults and UAH 3,000 for children or people with disabilities. Business hiring IDPs receive UAH 6,500 as a partial salary compensation.
6. Energy. Ukraine has joined the European energy system ENTSO-E. Coal reserves and up 9 billion cubic meters of gas are in storage. Ukraine has reached agreements for the delivery of fuel from European refineries.
7. Wartime Logistics. The Ukrzaliznytsia JSC transports thousands of tons of cargo and hundreds of thousands of people daily. Separate logistics routes have been opened for motor transport. Ukraine is building new warehouses on the western border and plans to open new checkpoints there shortly.
8. “World Stands with Ukraine“
9. “Restoration of Ukraine“.

The Prime Minister expressed hope that the support of the partners will be demonstrated not just in words.The US will provide $500 million in direct budgetary aid to Ukraine, CNBC reports. President Biden told President Zelenskyy that the United States plans to provide his government with $500 million in direct budgetary aid, according to a White House readout of Biden’s secure call with the Ukrainian leader. In the world of international assistance, direct budgetary aid is relatively rare.The sanctions have an effect. A survey of Russian retail investor sentiment, conducted by the Levada Centre, shows a sharp decline in optimism about the future and their own financial situation. Confidence that their personal financial situation will improve has been decreasing throughout the year, but the current drop was especially dramatic: the number of those who expect their finances to improve this year has dropped from 61% in March 2021 to 13% in March 2022.

“A noticeable decrease in optimism affected, among other things, the assessment of the economic situation in the country. The share of investors who consider the next year “neither good nor bad” for the country’s economy has significantly dropped, and the share of pessimists has increased: from 33% in October 2021 to 88% in March 2022. When asked to characterize the financial consequences of the current crisis, 70% of the surveyed investors noted that they had suffered financial loss, a third of respondents assessed their loss as significant (33%). One in seven investors noted no losses or profits (14%), the same number spoke of profits (16%). Big investors are more likely to view their losses as significant.”

New developments

1. Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan call for states to guarantee security. A week ago, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said that Ukraine was negotiating with many countries concerning the subject of security guarantees. In particular with USA, UK, Germany, France and Türkiye.
– Germany as a whole is ready to act as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security, German Chancellor Scholz told President Zelensky, European Truth reports. Whether the role as a security guarantor will also include a military component is unclear.
– The UK is not ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine’s independence, Kyiv Independent reports.

“We have been very clear we are not going to engage Russia in a direct military confrontation. Ukraine is not a NATO member,” U.K. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab said.

2. Negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations will resume online on April 1, Ukrainska Pravda reports. During the next week, the delegations will work out a more coordinated draft agreement for the next meeting of the presidents of the two countries. Ukraine insists that the meeting cannot take place in either Russia or Belarus.3. A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine will not be enough to elicit the lifting of British sanctions, European Truth reports. This was stated by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson.4. The level of support for President Putin among Russians increased by 12% compared to February and is presently 83% according to a poll conducted by the Russian renowned Levada Centre.https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1509416014462738436?t=FU402ympArmRGdRnhdEY8w&s=195. The conflict between Russia and the West might be escalating. Several countries are considering an emergency plan to ration gas Wednesday in what is seen as a standoff over a Russian demand to pay for fuel with roubles which can lead to disruption or halt of supplies, Reuters reports. The demand for roubles, which has been rejected by Group of Seven nations, is in retaliation for crippling Western sanctions. Russia considers demanding rouble payments also for other commodities including oil, grain, fertilisers, coal, and metals, raising the risk of recession in Europe and the US.

Assessment

1. On the War

The Institute for the Study of War has made the following assessment as of Wednesday 30 March:

Russian claims about troop withdrawal cover for regrouping forces, Ukraine’s and western leaders warn. Ukraine and Western leaders had cautioned that Moscow’s apparent peace gesture at Tuesday’s talks in Istanbul was a cover for reorganizing forces that had failed to take Kyiv, Reuters reports. Russia’s defence ministry said on Wednesday its forces were regrouping near Kyiv and Chernihiv to focus on the “liberation” of the breakaway eastern Donbas region.Britain’s defence ministry said Moscow’s announcement about focusing on the Donbas was likely “a tacit admission that it is struggling to sustain more than one significant axis of advance”. Pentagon has also cautioned it’s not a retreat. Russia previously did not follow through with similar pledges.Russia is trying to buy more time through negotiations with Ukraine, according to Melinda Haring of the Atlantic Council, CNBC reports.

“It is an attempt for the Russians to buy more time so that they can come back in, regroup and come back stronger. Nothing has changed today, that’s the important point,” Haring added. “The bottom line is that Ukraine has to continue to fight, and fight very valiantly, and inflict major costs on Russia until Russia is ready to engage in real negotiations. The West will also need to continue to send defensive material to Ukraine, she added.”

It will take “many more weeks and many more months” until the Russians will be willing to really negotiate, she said.UK intelligence chief says Russian soldiers are low on morale and refusing to carry out orders, CNN reports.Sir Jeremy Fleming, Director of GCHQ, the UK’s Intelligence, Cyber and Security Agency said,

“it increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. Fleming said Putin over-estimated the abilities of the Russian military to secure a quick victory. We’ve seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft, he said. Even though we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgements must be crystal clear to the regime, he said”.

2. Consequences and what to do?

“To those who were in Chechnya, Russia’s war in Ukraine looks ominously familiar”, an article by Carlotta Gall in The New York Times, paints a grim picture of what might be awaiting Ukraine (unless Russia is defeated):

Hans Petter Midttun’s assessment: In the article “Biden told the truth about Putin. But regime change is not a policy option” by the Editorial Board of the Washington Post, they stress that:In the article, the Washington Post echoed my recent assessment that “

it is in both NATO’s and the EU’s interest to ensure that the war is resolved as quickly as possible. It is equally important to resolve the real cause of the war. Russia.”

In the article, I argued that there can be no “business as normal” until we see something resembling normality in Russia. I suggested that the sanctions should not be lifted before Russia, as one out of several prerequisites, turns President Putin and his inner circle over to the International Criminal Court in the Hague.Regime change is in my opinion, a precondition for peace in Europe.