Picture by Kirill Makarov
Putin ordered Russian troops to invade into an independent democratic country. Without declaring war. Without any lawful reason. Without any moral law.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy grew up in a Jewish family and he is a Ukrainian Jew. Therefore, when the Kremlin dictator talks about “denazification” of Ukraine or about a gang of “drug abusers and neo-Nazis” it seems ridiculous and inadequate.
In fact, it is precisely Russia which created a true fascism on the background of anti-fascist slogans.
Ukraine has not threatened Russia’s security. The opportunity of Ukraine’s membership in NATO looks far-off, as Ukraine has not even received an action plan for NATO membership. The military aid from Western partners came to Ukraine only in the form of defense weapons and in small quantities.
Stingers, man-portable air defense systems, cannot be used for attack; they are means of air defense.
The real goal of the dictator was to carry out a criminal three-day “special operation” to change the government in Ukraine by military force and degrade an independent state into a dependent adjunct of Russia, as in the case of Belarus.
This capture of Ukraine should bring him closer to the revival of the “Russian Empire” that Putin is obsessed with.
After fail of his plan, Putin unleashed terror.
The bloody dictator expected that the “weak and indecisive” West would punish Russia with insignificant sanctions, as it happened after the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas. It hurts, but you still can live with these sanctions. Moreover, Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas.
However, things went wrong. Despite a special operation conducted according to all the principles of a modern hybrid war, which includes not only the military component, but also cyber-attacks, propaganda, the network of saboteurs, etc., the blitzkrieg failed.
The occupying forces were unable to capture the capital of Ukraine Kyiv or any large city in the first days of the war. Diversion groups throughout all territory of Ukraine were quickly neutralized. The war has been going on for more than four weeks instead of three days.
That is why Russian troops are shelling schools, hospitals, and houses of Ukrainians, killing civilians, and in fact organizing the genocide of the Ukrainian people. This is much easier than fighting with the Ukrainian army directly.
What will happen next?
Putin does not care that Russia is rolling back to the Middle Ages, deprived of technologies in case of war. The standard of living of Russians is falling dramatically and will fall for the next period.
Deficit of goods, inflation, bankruptcy, and unemployment – that all concern Russian citizens, but not Putin himself.
Russia is already a world leader in the list of countries being under sanctions, outrunning even Iran, Venezuela, Myanmar, and Cuba combined! However, even these unprecedented sanctions will not stop his militarily plans.
Thousands of Russian parents who will never see their children alive will not stop Putin.
The dictator has already been publicly humiliated by the military defeat of his boasted army, which failed to win a rapid victory in Ukraine.
The war is not over, and Putin simply cannot afford to retreat.
Putin has two realistic options.
1. To declare mobilization in the Russian Federation and try to defeat Ukraine by size of his army, to fill Ukraine up with Russian “cannon fodder.”
However, this beckons the question: how will he maintain the occupied territories? It is impossible to task the FSB slaughterers from FSB to repress the 42 million Ukrainians who do not want to live under occupation.
We already see how problematic it is for Russia to maintain its control over such cities as Kherson or Melitopol, where residents are not afraid to protest with Ukrainian flags against the armed occupiers.
2. Another option for Putin is to use nuclear weapons.
Thus, to go down in history as Herostatus, the ancient figure who burned the temple of Artemis so to be remembered by his descendants, Putin is able to burn a half of the planet with nuclear weapons.
If anyone still has doubts that Putin is capable of this step, just ask yourself, if Hitler had an atomic bomb, would he use it?
This way Putin would solve at least two tasks: eliminate billions of witnesses to his disgrace and avoid fair justice at the Hague tribunal.
After all, it is easier to make such a destructive decision for humanity when you are safe, somewhere in a bunker in the Urals. According to the incompetently edited recent video of his meeting with airline representatives, he is right there, in his bunker.
It is very visible how Putin ran his hand through the microphone as if it were “transparent,” and in the reflection of the kettle – an empty office.
Does the West understand this?
Will Putin calm down if he would defeat Ukraine? Of course not.
In recent years, the West has underestimated the seriousness of the Russian president’s intentions to occupy all of Ukraine. Now we experience the results of the policy of “appeasing the aggressor.”
Fortunately, Western leaders are now beginning to realize what is going on. The Vice President of the European Commission Valdis Dombrovskis stated that “Russia will not stop in Ukraine.” According to him, the next victims of Putin could be Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
These worries are quite justified. When the last Ukrainian soldier falls, Putin will go West.
The dictator may try to create some “people’s republics” in the hands of local collaborators of the Baltic States, or attack Finland or Sweden, which are not members of NATO.
NATO is not an aggressive union. NATO itself is afraid of Russia’s use of nuclear weapons.
That is why it is necessary to stop the “Russian Hitler” in Ukraine, and not somewhere in Central or Western Europe. It is not too late.
It seems that the excuse about the need to avoid the Third World War no longer works. Unfortunately, this war has already begun de facto. The first military front of this war is Ukraine. The second one is around the world on the economic level.
This battlefield will expand. It is just a question of time. Any aggressor can be stopped only by force.
Olexiy Minakov is a communications manager, political expert, and columnist at leading Ukrainian media (Radio Liberty, Ukrainska Pravda, NV, LIGA).
Tags: Putin, Russian invasion