With his statements in the 21 February address to the Russian nation, Putin de facto declared war on Ukraine at the political level and its non-recognition as a sovereign country. However, it appears that the full-scale invasion predicted by many analysts will not materialize. Yet, there are several no less dangerous scenarios that Putin may still apply, experts from the Kyiv-based Center for Defense Strategies say.
Along with already present cyber, psychological operations and attempts to accuse Ukraine of aggression against Russia along with Putin’s Big Lie narrative, the most likely military scenarios are:
- a significant escalation of the situation in the east of Ukraine with the possible use of the Russian armed forces, including aviation, missile weapons, and the Navy;
- crossing the contact line in Donbas and attempting to seize parts of the land and settlements around the occupied territories;
- missile strikes on military targets and infrastructure in various locations across Ukraine, including Kyiv, with the goal of psychological pressure.
- Read also: Russian propaganda now shows Ukraine as “enslaved brother,” invasion as “just reclamation”
- Ukraine’s readiness to resist and improved capabilities of the Armed Forces (including recent assistance) and the readiness of defense forces;
- “severe sanctions;”
- active political and diplomatic pressure;
- the disclosure of intelligence that exposed Russia’s plans.
That is why strong international sanctions and military support for Ukraine are important now to deter him from the next steps.
Experts believe Putin’s new strategy excludes any direct official relations between Russia and the leadership of Ukraine but will be based on “legalizing” the militant “republics” as potential negotiators.
The recommendations of experts include tough sanctions against Russia, martial law in part of Ukraine, mobilization of the first military reserve group, and deployment of territorial defense forces of Ukraine as well as using diplomatic tools for additional military assistance and mobilizing effective support in the framework of UN Security Council and the OSCE.
As of the evening of 23 February, Ukraine has already started all of these steps and introduced a State of Emergency. It is ready to introduce martial law in case of further escalation.
Related:
- Kyiv defense experts: Russian proxies may attempt to expand occupied territory (the Center for Defense Strategies' 20 February analysis)
- Russia says its proxies have right to two entire Ukrainian oblasts, withdraws from Minsk agreements
- IT specialists launch automated monitoring of Russian troops on Ukrainian border
- Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine and the West is entering the next phase: The crisis
- Russian troops massed around Ukraine now ready for ‘various offensive scenarios’: digital sleuths
