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By [email protected] (Тарас Возняк)
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February 14 – Prosecutor General of Ukraine in cooperation with Security Service of Ukraine has detained a former Chief of the Party of Regions Oleksandr Yefremov, – said Prosecutor General of Ukraine Viktor Shokin in his comment to Internet media "Ukrainska Pravda".
February 14 – At 0:00 the Armed Forces of Ukraine will cease fire along the contact line, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko during his address from the General Staff on February 14th.
February 14 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has said that peace agreements are in jeopardy as a result of the situation at Debaltseve lodgement. "The whole world is waiting tensely for tomorrow's morning with bated breath. Those who would like to derail the peace process at its outset, have been warned about the consequences. I am not going to say what Ukraine will do if the peace process is disrupted. I will say one thing – we will not turn another cheek if we are provoked and may the Lord forgive me for that", – said Poroshenko.
February 14 – Battalion Donbas soldiers captured 17 fighters in the area of the village Lohvyn in Donetsk region.
February 14 On February 14, terrorists are preparing a massive provocation, which may result in the entry of armed forces from RF. This was aired on Channel 5 by the spokesman of Sector M, Dmytro Chalyj. And they did accomplish this – they shelled with Hrads the Russian territory. Now Russia will blame the Ukrainian side for this.
February 14 In the internet there appeared a video which testifies to the gathering of armored artillery by the Russian side from Crimea to the administrative border with Ukraine.
February 14 – As a result of constant artillery shelling of Debaltsev by the fighters, "the city is burning", the building of the city police was hit directly by Hrad units. This was stated by the Head of the Regional Headquarters of MVS in Donetsk region, Viacheslav Abroskin.
February 13 – 11 Ukrainian military were killed and 40 injured in the ATO area in the last 24 hours, – NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
February 13 – According to new Minsk agreements, the city of Debaltseve should remain under Ukraine's control. However, Russian terrorists were given an order to gain control over the cities of Debaltseve and Mariupol by February 15th, – informed Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Petro Mekhed: "According to information available and taking into account the fact that there has been an agreement to cease fire on February 15th (0:00), Russian troops and pro-Russian militants were ordered to occupy Debaltseve and Mariupol".
February 13 – Soldiers of 79th brigade of Ukrainian army have detained a terrorist "Gnom" ("Dwarf") who is allegedly second in command at the detachment of Russian terrorists named "Somali". He personally participated in torturing Ukrainian military prisoners.
February 13 – A tank battle for the village of Shyrokine and an artillery battle for the village of Stakhanka have taken place – both are located close to Mariupol, – reports Ukrainian regiment "Azov".
February 13 – When the terrorists were shelling the town of Shchastya (Luhansk region), they killed and injured civilians at a local café.
February 13 – Right wing party "Pravyi Sektor" believes that that any agreements with separatists are unconstitutional and thus the party reserves its right to active military operations, – stated party leader Dmytro Yarosh.
February 13 – Russian terrorists have shelled the city of Artemivsk, which is located behind the combat line protected by Ukrainian forces.
February 13 – 4 people were killed and 16 injured as a result of shelling by Russian terrorists at the city of Hirnyk (Donetsk oblast).
February 13 – US Senate has passed a resolution on the release of Ukrainian pilot and member of Ukrainian Parliament Nadiya Savchenko.
February 13 – In the last hours before the beginning of the ceasefire, foreseen by the mutual agreements in Minsk, the danger of bloodshed only increases. This was stated by the German official Gernot Erler, an advisor to Merkel on Russia, reported the Bayerischer Rundfunk: "The risk is truly very high. In the last hours before the ceasefire, there exists the danger that the sides will attempt to increase losses among each other," he said. According to him, the heightening may lead to the reality that the readiness for a ceasefire will dwindle to nothing. "There is a diffference between Minsk-1 and Minsk-2. I see more concrete definitions in the new agreement. Also, backing up the new document are three preidents and a chancellor," noted the politician.
What Russia wants:From cold war to hot war
Russia's aggression in Ukraine is part of a broader, and more dangerous, confrontation with the West
Marco Bojcun: MINSK II: Land for a ceasefare, but not for pease
Lithuania's view on Minsk2
Putin's war on the West
Flawed deal in Minsk
Polish view on Minsk2
Ukraine's other war – on corruption (NATO Review)
Lilia Shevcova: The Kremlin Is Winning
By Taras Kuzio
What will the west do when Minsk-2 unravels?
European leaders desperate to avoid going down an Iranian-style route of economic and financial sanctions and to dissuade the US from sending weapons signed a second agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine on Thursday in the Belarus capital, Minsk. But it will be as unworkable as the first Minsk agreement signed in September 2014. The new agreement has weaknesses similar to those of its predecessor and will unravel in the next few months.
How will the weak Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) go about removing foreign troops and mercenaries? Will Russia really permit Ukraine to take control of its border next year, after local elections in March and the adoption of a new Ukrainian constitution that outlines some form regional devolution to the Donbas?
Indeed, could elections ever be considered free and far if they are held under the barrel of a gun? With crime rampant in the separatist-controlled Donbas, will it be safe to transfer funds for social payments and pensions from Kiev to the region and for taxes to be transferred back to the central government?
The reaction from leaders in the region was sceptical or cautious at best. Dalia Grybauskaitė, Lithuania's president, said Minsk-2 was a "weak" document; Bronisław Komorowski, Poland's president, said peace was still a faraway goal.
The main reason Minsk-2 will not hold is that the person who began the conflict – Russian President Vladimir Putin – has not achieved his strategic goal of destroying Ukraine as an independent state. Western sanctions have not served as a deterrent.
As Andrey Illarionov, a former economic adviser to Putin, reminded us this week:
the goal of Putin's war against Ukraine is an attempt at the inclusion of it, Belarus, and also Russian-speaking enclaves in other countries in some kind of geopolitical union called 'the Russian world,' with the liquidation or at least the limitation of their sovereignty.
The Donbas conflict will only end, he argues, if Putin gives up "the policy of denying the statehood, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine and other states with Russian or Russian speaking population".
Putin has always confused Russian speakers in Ukraine with Russians, and has talked of "17m Russians" living in Ukraine. That this is a misnomer can be seen from the weak support for separatism in the six Russian-speaking regions of eastern and southern Ukraine outside the Donbas.
US and EU leaders are unwilling to face the implications of a return to the Europe of the 1930s, with one country seeking to destroy another. They are desperate to put off the inevitable confrontation with Russia through negotiation. A year ago, when former US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made an analogy between Nazi Germany and Putin's Russia defending their co-ethnics in other countries, she was ridiculed. But today, her critics agree with her.
Putin's demand for Ukraine to become a federal state is a non-starter. It has no support among the Ukrainian public or its elites and is an attempt at 'Bosnianising' the country. No federal country in the world gives its provinces a veto over foreign and defence policy, as Putin is insisting the Donbas must be given in Ukraine.
Putin's objective to install a pro-Russian leader, parliament and government presupposes the annulling of presidential and parliamentary elections held in May and October of last year that were recognised as free and fair by the OSCE, the Council of Europe and the EU. No sovereign country in the world would accept such a demand from its neighbour.
Putin's paranoia about Nato and EU enlargement into what he views as Russia's 'zone of privileged interests' is a misnomer. Although an April 2008 Nato summit in Bucharest named Ukraine and Georgia as future members, France and Germany have said they would veto this. The EU has never offered membership to Ukraine.
And who will persuade the Ukrainian parliament to overturn a December vote by a constitutional majority of 302 to move away from the non-bloc status that Putin wants Ukraine to return to?
When Minsk-2 unravels, what will US and EU leaders do next?
Ukraine will not agree to a Minsk-3. If Russia and the separatists again fail to implement the agreement, the only options open will be to remove Russia from the Swift international payments system, blacklist its president, prime minister and its foreign and defence ministers, and supply Ukraine with defensive military equipment, training and satellite intelligence.
You can't make the same mistake twice. The second time you make it, it's no longer a mistake. It's a choice.
Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute for Ukrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.
P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.
February 27 – 3 Ukrainian military were killed and 7 injured in the ATO area in the last 24 hours, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
February 27 – Russia plans to seize those parts of Ukraine that are needed create a corridor to Crimea (attack on Mariupol is possible in the spring), – stated Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
February 27 – Organizers of Kharkiv terrorist attacks have received weapons and funding from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, – stated at a press conference on Friday the Chief of Security Service of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. He said that for the attack, the terrorists were given mines from the army main office in Belgorod. They also received 10 000 US dollars as a payment for Kharkiv terrorist attack.
February 27 – Russia has concentrated 63500 of its military near the border with Ukraine. According to "Information Resistance" group, most Russian soldiers are located in Crimea (30 thousand). Additionally, near Russia-Ukraine border in Chernihiv direction there are 3350 soldiers, Kharkiv direction – 5150 soldiers, Donetsk direction – 21800 soldiers. Another 3200 Russian soldiers are located in Transnistria.
February 27 – Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko who is illegally detained at the Russian prison, intends to go on a dry hunger strike, – said her lawyer Illya Novikov in a comment to "Dozhd" TV channel.
February 27 – On Friday, the militants have concentrated on shelling Donetsk area, – reports ATO press-centre.
February 27 – In case the situation in Donbas deteriorates, the UK could reconsider a decision to grant Ukraine lethal weapons, – said UK's Foreign Minister Philip Hammond. "At this point we decided not to provide Ukrainian army with lethal weapons, but we can review this decision", – said Hammond.
February 27 – First Deputy to NSDC Secretary Oleg Hladkovskyi has said that Ukraine is receiving lethal weapons from foreign countries. "Where there is no unnecessary hustle, which we, unfortunately, often create ourselves – these countries we do receive lethal weapons from", – he said.
February 27 – During the International Defence Exhibition & Conference IDEX-2015 in Abu Dhabi, Ukrainian delegation has signed a contract for the purchase of remotely piloted aircraft and radioelectronic warfare equipment with French company Thales Group.
February 27 – Security Services of Ukraine state that Vladyslav Surkov, an assistant to the President of RF is sending terrorist organizations "LNR" and "DNR" secret messages about their reaction to the actions of the official authorities in Kyiv. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Head of Ukraine's Security Services, stated this at a press conference on Friday by demonstrating a fragment of a circular dated February 2015. In this document, particularly, there is a statement that the decision to invite into Ukraine a peace-keeping contingent of UN is contradictory to the peace agreements. The circular is almost written in the same words as those later used by the leaders of the fighters in their comments on their media resources. Also, according to Nalyvaichenko, the Security Services of Ukraine are continuing to gather proof about the involvement of Surkov in directing the groups of the special staff of the Federation Security Services, who cooperated with the former directors of Security Services of Ukraine at the time of the events on Euromaidan.
February 26 – The situation in the ATO are has slightly stabilized, no attacks of our positions were recorded overnight, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.
February 26 – When speaking at US Congress Defense Committee meeting on February 25th, Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations Philip Breedlove has said that Russian troops are stationed in Transdniestria in order to "prevent Moldova getting closer to the West". Being stationed in Transdniestria they can hit Ukraine as easily as Moldova.
February 26 – National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" will take out a loan from the National Bank of China to the amount of 3.6 billion dollars.
February 26 – Russian "Gazprom" has agreed to discuss gas supply to the occupied areas of Donbas separately from overall Ukraine-Russia gas issues.
February 26 – Ukraine has begun the withdrawal of heavy weapons, – stated the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 100mm main guns are being withdrawn from the boundary line. 100-mm howitzers and anti-tank guns "Rapira" are being repositioned. They are being relocated 25 km from the lines identified by Minsk agreements.
February 26 – As a result of joint counter-terrorism activities implemented by the Security Service of Ukraine and the Interior Ministry of Ukraine, the criminals involved in the terrorist attack in Kharkiv on February 22th were detained. 4 people were killed in the attack, – informed NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov.
February 26 – In the last month Russia has relocated over a thousand units of military equipment, vehicles, tanks, artillery and air defense systems to Donbas, – stated NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
February 26 – Національний банк знизив офіційний курс гривні на 26 лютого до 30,01 гривні за долар.
National Bank of Ukraine lowered the official rate of hryvnia to 30.01 UAH per 1 US dollar for February 26th.
February 26 – During the lastfive months teachers on the territories controlled by "LNR" did not receive salaries or any social payments. ATO Spokesperson Andriy Lysenko announced this during a briefing. According to him the last time that teachers were paid for their work was for September 2014. "Since the majority of families of teachers remain without money, and the fighters continue to rob peaceful civilians, the educators gave an ultimatum to the leadership of "LNR". In case there is no payment of salaries, from March 9th, no school will remain open in Luhansk," he said.
February 26 – Ukraine has already filed with the European Court of Human Rights three law suits against the Russian Federation. The first one that Ukraine filed in the European Court of Human Rights against Russia was back in March 2014, during events which culminated in the annexation of Crimea.
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Alexander J. Motyl: Why Russia Will Lose in Ukraine
Mark MacKinnon: Bypassing official channels, Canada's Ukrainian diaspora finances and fights a war against Russia
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Minister Nicholson Calls for Russia to Release Ukrainian Air Force Pilot Nadiya Savchenko
War on Corruption: Ukraine Struggles to Emerge from the Shadow of the Oligarchs
Jason Kenney to send military training mission
P.S.: Please spread this appeal as much as possible.