Expect loopholes on Russia sanctions — analyst

The likelihood that tougher sanctions against Russia will be adopted at the EU meeting Wednesday, July 16, is high, but European politicians could delay their implementation, Volodymyr Horbach, specialist at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, wrote in his commentary in Tyzhden.ua, July 15.

“I think Ukraine should expect it (the adoption of sanctions — Ed.) and do everything possible to demand that decision from our European partners. According to my information, during the consideration of the Ukrainian question, the arguments of the Ukrainian side will be heard. I think President Poroshenko will be present personally, and the Ukrainian side will present certain evidence of Russia’s direct involvement in the aggression against Ukraine to the members of the EU Council.  These argument, as intended, should influence the discussions and the final decision, Horbach said.

“If the EU ignores all appeals and pleas for help from Ukraine, including the imposition of economic sanctions against the aggressor, then the EU will lose face decisively, at least in its relations with Ukraine. The absence of a decision on sanctions will only confirm Russia’s propaganda accusations of a double standard in the West. This will be a manifestation of cowardice — when values mean nothing, and (economic) interests everything. This will force Ukraine to behave differently in its conflict with the Russian Federation and to seek support with other allies — I mean first of all with the USA. Ukraine will need to take off its rose-colored glasses when considering the EU and its future membership in the organization,” he added.

Horbach predicts a positive decision for Ukraine at the July 16 session of the European Council on the basis of the situation in the Donbas.

“I think that … the EU Council cannot afford to ignore Ukraine’s appeal. They will have to react in a different way than before,” he said. There can be more expressions of ‘concern,’ alarm,’ deep concern.’ They have had a long time to form a clear picture of the situation we’re dealing with. But, I think that once again the European politicians will look for loopholes. And the decision, which I think will be a positive one, will include postponement for a certain period with concurrent expressions of hope that the Russian Federation will somehow come to its senses by September 1 and stop waging war on Ukraine.