RNBO: News & Analysis Center July 8 Update

З одного боку бачимо явну чи латентну консолідацію Континенту (Світового острова). Росія зайняла гостро опозиційну диспозицію щодо США+. Китай – у вичікуючій диспозиції. Ряд країн ЄС, які традиційно тяжіли до Континенту (Німеччина, Австрія, Франція – див. Т.Возняк: Проблема німецького вибору у російсько-українській війні) є у двозначній диспозиції. Вони тісно пов'язані/нейтралізовані Світовими океанами. Однак у випадку Німеччини так само тісно пов'язані/напівнейтралізовані Росією. Але щодень то більше пов'язані/напівнейтралізовані Китаєм, де у ФРН маса проектів та планів. Окрім того, на всі ці пов'язаності/напівнейтралізації накладається ще й шлейф традиційного континентального політичного мислення та позиціонування.

З іншого боку бачимо, як у формальний і не формальний спосіб консолідувалася традиційно антиконтинентальна англосаксонська ліга у складі США, Канади, Австралії, Нової Зеландії, Великої Британії.

І, ще раз повторимося, в точності з передбаченням Маккіндера до антиконтинентальної ліги долучився колишній центральноєвропейський "санітарний коридор", який тільки змінює свою назву (Міжмор'я, УЛБ, ГУАМ, Вишеградська четвірка). Однак від зміни назви його "санітарна", "ізолююча" функція не змінюється.

Сьогодні у склад віртуального неформалізованого Міжмор'я ситуативно входять Польща, Україна, Литва, Латвія, Естонія, Румунія, Молдова. В принципі, там є місце і на Білорусь та Грузію. І деякі кроки Білорусі Лукашенка підтверджують, що і вона у непрямий спосіб майже непомітно, проте дрейфує, наскільки може, у тому ж напрямку.

March 8 – 1 Ukrainian military was killed and 3 were injured in the last 24 hours in the ATO area, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

March 8 – Official Kyiv is ready to communicate with the representatives of Donbas – with those, who will be elected as a result of legitimate elections, but not with the warlords, – said Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Vadym Prystayko: "At this point in time, there is a need to unite Ukraine, which is torn to pieces by our neighbours and thus we are ready to meet the needs and take into account the opinions of local people in these regions. But we cannot and will not talk to the warlords".

March 8 – During the night of March 8th, the intensity of provocative attacks by the militants decreased, but they violated "silence regime" 6 times, – informs ATO's press-centre. The enemy is using aerial reconnaissance – over the last 24 hours air defence forces have recorded the activity of 6 remotely piloted aircraft.

March 8 – "Since the annexation, Putin's most important objective was to create a giant military base in Crimea, not a gambling zone, where in addition to the fleet, there is strategic aviation, air defence, space forces, coastal missiles and nuclear weapons", – writes a journalist and human rights activist Andriy Klimenko (Crimea). According to him approximately 100 thousand troops will start serving at the peninsula over the next two years and there "should not be any disloyal residents – e.g. Crimean Tatars, journalists, community activists – all those who do not want to receive Russian passports and want to keep Ukrainian one. This will continue, unfortunately".

March 8 – Armed Forces of Ukraine have completed the fourth stage of withdrawal of heavy weapons from the combat contact line in Donbas according to Minsk agreements, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko: "We have completed the fourth stage of withdrawal of heavy weapons from the contact line. Earlier we withdrew 100-mm anti-tank guns – "Rapira" and "Ruta", MLRS "Grad" and "Uragan".

March 8 – In Luhansk Region during the period of carrying on of fighting activities, during the shelling of residential areas, eight churches of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which do not belong to the Moscow Patriarchate, were harmed "Ruined churches with destroyed altars and icons – a visible affirmation of what kind of "Orthodox World" the Russians and their mercenaries in Donbas are fighting for," Head of the Luhansk Region State Administration. Henadiy Moskal.

March 8 – Russia poses a serious threat to the safety of Europe and the European Union should continue a decisive policy of counteraction in regards to Kremlin.

This is presented in the article of the Head of the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Margot Valstrem, published in the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet. "We saw how Russia, without any hesitation, sent advanced armed force units across the border in order to support the separatists, who with weapons attempted to fight with the Ukrainian forces and increase their control over the territory of Ukraine," notes the Minister.

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February 27 – 3 Ukrainian military were killed and 7 injured in the ATO area in the last 24 hours, – informed NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 27 – Russia plans to seize those parts of Ukraine that are needed create a corridor to Crimea (attack on Mariupol is possible in the spring), – stated Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.

February 27 – Organizers of Kharkiv terrorist attacks have received weapons and funding from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces, – stated at a press conference on Friday the Chief of Security Service of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaichenko. He said that for the attack, the terrorists were given mines from the army main office in Belgorod. They also received 10 000 US dollars as a payment for Kharkiv terrorist attack.

February 27 – Russia has concentrated 63500 of its military near the border with Ukraine. According to "Information Resistance" group, most Russian soldiers are located in Crimea (30 thousand). Additionally, near Russia-Ukraine border in Chernihiv direction there are 3350 soldiers, Kharkiv direction – 5150 soldiers, Donetsk direction – 21800 soldiers. Another 3200 Russian soldiers are located in Transnistria.

February 27 – Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko who is illegally detained at the Russian prison, intends to go on a dry hunger strike, – said her lawyer Illya Novikov in a comment to "Dozhd" TV channel.

February 27 – On Friday, the militants have concentrated on shelling Donetsk area, – reports ATO press-centre.

February 27 – In case the situation in Donbas deteriorates, the UK could reconsider a decision to grant Ukraine lethal weapons, – said UK's Foreign Minister Philip Hammond. "At this point we decided not to provide Ukrainian army with lethal weapons, but we can review this decision", – said Hammond.

February 27 – First Deputy to NSDC Secretary Oleg Hladkovskyi has said that Ukraine is receiving lethal weapons from foreign countries. "Where there is no unnecessary hustle, which we, unfortunately, often create ourselves – these countries we do receive lethal weapons from", – he said.

February 27 – During the International Defence Exhibition & Conference IDEX-2015 in Abu Dhabi, Ukrainian delegation has signed a contract for the purchase of remotely piloted aircraft and radioelectronic warfare equipment with French company Thales Group.

February 27 – Security Services of Ukraine state that Vladyslav Surkov, an assistant to the President of RF is sending terrorist organizations "LNR" and "DNR" secret messages about their reaction to the actions of the official authorities in Kyiv. Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Head of Ukraine's Security Services, stated this at a press conference on Friday by demonstrating a fragment of a circular dated February 2015. In this document, particularly, there is a statement that the decision to invite into Ukraine a peace-keeping contingent of UN is contradictory to the peace agreements. The circular is almost written in the same words as those later used by the leaders of the fighters in their comments on their media resources. Also, according to Nalyvaichenko, the Security Services of Ukraine are continuing to gather proof about the involvement of Surkov in directing the groups of the special staff of the Federation Security Services, who cooperated with the former directors of Security Services of Ukraine at the time of the events on Euromaidan.

February 26 – The situation in the ATO are has slightly stabilized, no attacks of our positions were recorded overnight, – said NSDC spokesman Andriy Lysenko.

February 26 – When speaking at US Congress Defense Committee meeting on February 25th, Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations Philip Breedlove has said that Russian troops are stationed in Transdniestria in order to "prevent Moldova getting closer to the West". Being stationed in Transdniestria they can hit Ukraine as easily as Moldova.

February 26 – National Joint Stock Company "Naftogaz of Ukraine" will take out a loan from the National Bank of China to the amount of 3.6 billion dollars.

February 26 – Russian "Gazprom" has agreed to discuss gas supply to the occupied areas of Donbas separately from overall Ukraine-Russia gas issues.

February 26 – Ukraine has begun the withdrawal of heavy weapons, – stated the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 100mm main guns are being withdrawn from the boundary line. 100-mm howitzers and anti-tank guns "Rapira" are being repositioned. They are being relocated 25 km from the lines identified by Minsk agreements.

February 26 – As a result of joint counter-terrorism activities implemented by the Security Service of Ukraine and the Interior Ministry of Ukraine, the criminals involved in the terrorist attack in Kharkiv on February 22th were detained. 4 people were killed in the attack, – informed NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov.

February 26 – In the last month Russia has relocated over a thousand units of military equipment, vehicles, tanks, artillery and air defense systems to Donbas, – stated NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

February 26 – Національний банк знизив офіційний курс гривні на 26 лютого до 30,01 гривні за долар.

National Bank of Ukraine lowered the official rate of hryvnia to 30.01 UAH per 1 US dollar for February 26th.

February 26 – During the lastfive months teachers on the territories controlled by "LNR" did not receive salaries or any social payments. ATO Spokesperson Andriy Lysenko announced this during a briefing. According to him the last time that teachers were paid for their work was for September 2014. "Since the majority of families of teachers remain without money, and the fighters continue to rob peaceful civilians, the educators gave an ultimatum to the leadership of "LNR". In case there is no payment of salaries, from March 9th, no school will remain open in Luhansk," he said.

February 26 – Ukraine has already filed with the European Court of Human Rights three law suits against the Russian Federation. The first one that Ukraine filed in the European Court of Human Rights against Russia was back in March 2014, during events which culminated in the annexation of Crimea.

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