This year's Lviv Security Forum brought together security experts from different countries in order to model the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict so that the sovereignty of Ukraine on territories temporarily occupied by Russia would be restored and Ukraine would be protected against Russian aggression in the future. In the preface to the report of the modeling exercise, the Security Forum's co-chair Oksana Syroyid laid out an essential introduction to Russia's war against Ukraine -- that is, the centuries-old struggle of Russia to access warm-water ports. It is through this prism that the current war against Ukraine -- and Russia's attempts to resurrect its former empire altogether -- should be viewed.
This determined the main strategy of its expansion westward – to secure access to the Baltic and Black Seas and increase the buffer zone around the lifeline containing vital infrastructure and resources.
READ MORE ABOUT THE EVENTS OF THOSE TIMES:
Illusion of a friendly empire: Russia, the West, and Ukraine’s independence a century ago[/boxright] In fact, immediately after its formation in 1917, Soviet Russia began the occupation of the newly established Ukrainian People’s Republic. The occupation began with the formation of the “Ukrainian People’s Republic of Soviets” – an enclave controlled by the Bolsheviks (similar to today’s ORDLO – Separate Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions). During the Paris Peace Conference in Versailles in 1919 – 20, the leaders of the three nations – the United States, United Kingdom, and France – conceded statehood to nations that emerged from the ruins of European empires. The leaders of the Ukrainian People’s Republic sought support to oppose the Bolsheviks and the recognition of their statehood. However, it was the offensive of Bolshevik Russia that prevented the recognition of the Ukrainian Republic. Western powers were exhausted by World War I and didn’t have the resources and desire to resist the Bolsheviks, whose intentions were unclear to them. They chose to isolate and ignore the Bolsheviks instead. The return of control over Ukraine and its resources opened up new opportunities for the Russian Bolshevik government. The most valuable of such resources was grain, which could be exported to raise funds necessary for the industrialization of the Soviet Union.
However, taking grain from peasant owners was not easy, and collectivization pressed for technical development.
Holodomor: Stalin’s punishment for 5,000 peasant revolts,[/boxright] Collectivization and “dekulakization” provoked thousands of peasant revolts throughout Ukraine. People demanded the return of land and local governance to their communities. In order to prevent any potential peasant revolts and to secure control over land and grain, which was the main currency back then, Stalin killed millions of Ukrainian peasants by starvation in 1932 – 33. Nazi Germany was the closest ally for Stalin’s empire at that time. Hitler and Stalin relied on each other’s resources in preparation for their own wars. Stalin intended to move west, establish control over the seas and increase the “sanitary zone” under the banner of the socialist revolution. Hitler needed Ukrainian lands as the source of a workforce and food for his future empire.
Ukraine, or rather its land, remained the main trophy in the war between the two dictators. That’s why people weren’t spared. Ukrainians accounted for almost 40% of all human losses of the Soviet Union in World War II.
Stalin’s NKVD and Hitler’s Gestapo cooperated closely even before Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact[/boxright] World War II was started by both dictators, but only one of them was punished. Stalin ended the war as a winner who spelled the terms of peace. As a result, as of 1945, the Soviet empire had advanced its borders to Berlin. Stalin intended to move even further west. He first laid siege to West Berlin and established the German Democratic Republic (once again, similar to today’s ORDLO) in breach of the conditions of the occupation zones. Later on, in 1952, he attempted to expand westward, proposing that German leader Konrad Adenauer unite the GDR and the Federal Republic of Germany under conditions of an amnesty to former members of the Nazi party, new elections, and the non-aligned status of a united Germany. To this Chancellor Adenauer replied,
“Refusal to integrate with the West will lead to the capture of Germany by the Bolsheviks and will be tantamount to “political suicide.”
Despite unsuccessful attempts at further expansion to the west, the Soviet empire achieved the cherished dream of all Russian tsars.
Meanwhile, Europe needed to recover from the war of the past, protect itself from the Soviet military threat of the present, and prevent wars between European nations in the future. To maintain geopolitical balance on the European continent, the North Atlantic Alliance was established, whose aim, according to its first Secretary General, Baron Ismay, was to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”Without control over the Baltic and Black Seas, as well as without control over Ukrainian resources, “Greater Russia” is impossible.
The democratic world assessed the purpose and methods of the Soviet threat adequately. However, the West was unable to look into the roots of the problem: throughout the decades of the Cold War, it was communism as an ideology, not the imperial nature of Russia which was considered a threat.
Most of the figures now called “oligarchs” have monopolized Ukrainian regional gas companies, oblenergos, thermal power plants, shipyards, and access to key natural resources for Russian money and in Russia’s interest.
Why can’t Ukraine just get rid of its oligarchs?[/boxright] They have never held a Ukrainian identity or interest in the development of Ukraine, so they easily pumped out and continue to pump out money from Ukraine through offshore jurisdictions. At the same time, in order to maintain their monopolies and guarantee Ukraine’s movement in the Russian fairway, those actors established control over Ukrainian politics through dependent media and political projects. After all, today these oligarchs no longer make a secret of their reliance on Russia, openly lobbying for a Russian “appeasement” scenario in both Ukraine and the United States. However, even this control wasn’t enough for Russia's plans. Generations of people were born and raised in Ukraine, for whom any pro-Russian sentiments were alien and who increasingly looked to the West, identifying with European civilization and not with the “single Slavic people.” Time played against Russia – the territory got out of control. [boxright]
Black Sea gas deposits – an overlooked reason for Russia’s occupation of Crimea[/boxright] The Revolution of Dignity proved to be only a pretext for the Russian invasion. The main purpose of the annexation of Crimea was to gain control of the Black Sea and strengthen geopolitical leverage in the greater Mediterranean region. Thus, the main reasons for the occupation of East Ukraine were the levers of Russian pressure on Ukraine in both domestic and foreign policies. Is it possible to resolve the age-old Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Is Ukraine able to do it alone? Is the democratic world ready to recognize the dependence of its own security on Ukraine’s security, realizing, in historical perspective, the price it will have to pay in the event of Ukraine’s loss of its freedom and independence?
“Thus it would be hypocrisy to deny that an independent Ukraine is as essential to […] the tranquility of the world. Merely because it is inconvenient to consider it and highly so to attempt its solution, the problem has too long been ignored. But it is a problem which has deep and intricate roots in history and in its modern form has assumed extreme urgency. Voltaire noted admiringly the persistence with which Ukrainians aspired to freedom and remarked that being surrounded by hostile lands, they were doomed to search for a Protector. Until they are assured of liberty they will be faithless to whichever State they are bound and will continue freely to shed their own blood and that of their conquerors. So long, too, as this situation continues other nations will be tempted to exploit it. What then is the use of pretending that there is peace when there is no peace? Nor will there be any until this Ukrainian question is satisfactorily disposed of.”These are the words of Lancelot Lawton, a British soldier, historian, economist, Ukrainian scholar, public figure, and international journalist, which he spoke in 1935. Ignoring these words then cost Europeans tens of millions of lives. Perhaps, history provides us with a chance to correct this mistake, doesn’t it?
Read the entire report here. The text in this article has been slightly edited for clarity.
Oksana Syroyid is co-chair of the Lviv Security Forum, leader of the Samopomich Union political party, Deputy Speaker of the Ukrainian parliament in 2014-2019.
