Putin comes up with another way to hide Russian combat losses

Russian president Vladimir Putin pictured with Dmitry Utkin ("Vagner") on the far right and other commanders of the Vagner private military company that fights on orders of the Russian military in Ukraine and Syria, but is not a part of it formally. This image is believed to date from December 2016.

Russian president Vladimir Putin pictured with Dmitry Utkin ("Vagner") on the far right and other commanders of the Vagner private military company that fights on orders of the Russian military in Ukraine and Syria, but is not a part of it formally. This image is believed to date from December 2016. 

Analysis & Opinion, Russia

Vladimir Putin’s decision to allow foreigners to serve in the Russian military not only reflects Russia’s demographic problems and his desire to rope in more people from the former Soviet republics but also and perhaps more important is part of his ongoing effort to hide Russian combat losses from the Russian people.

To the extent that the Kremlin leader succeeds, that will make his use of force abroad even more likely because it will remove one of the last constraints, admittedly already a weak one, on his actions — the feelings of the Russian people about the losses of their husbands and sons in Putin’s foreign adventures.

One way Moscow has used to hide military losses is to simply lie about them. That is what many Russians appear to assume given the readiness of the Kremlin to disown those who are captured (babr24.com, graniru.org and polit.ru).

Another related technique is to employ a wide variety of mercenary groups whose subordination to the Russian military command can be plausibly denied (kasparov.ru). But neither of these tactics have stopped Russians from asking how many of their own have died in Syria?

In today’s Novaya gazeta, Irek Murtazin addresses that question and says that Russian experts tell him that the numbers Russians have been given, a few dozen or even less, are implausible on their face, given the losses one would expect in any military operation of this size (novayagazeta.ru).

He discusses in detail the Wagner group, a mercenary outfit which the Russian defense ministry doesn’t take responsibility for and thus whose losses, although they are very much part of the Russian effort, are things the Russian military isn’t going to feel any responsibility for reporting.

According to Murtazin, there is a debate within the Russian defense establishment as to whether the Wagner forces should be legalized as part of the Russian military, something a 2015 law allows for. Opponents of doing that include a deputy defense minister and the FSB’s military counter-intelligence branch. Backers are led by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (aka GRU).

While this is being sorted out, Russian losses will continue to mount, “hybrid” losses as it were in yet another “hybrid” war. It seems likely that Putin will use any foreigners who join the Russian military in a similar way, giving him the kind of deniability of responsibility he has used since “the polite little green men” went into Crimea.

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Edited by: A. N.

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  • Eddy Verhaeghe

    It will take Russia many, many years before those foreign soldiers become a capable fighting force like e.g. the Gurkhas in the British Army or the Légion étrangère in the French Army.

    In the meantime those foreign soldiers will be cannon fodder, just like the mercenaries of the Vagner Group. Deniable cannon fodder at that…

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      But there isn’t an unlimited supply of mercenaries. If too many are killed, the rest will resign, or won’t renew their contracts when they expire.

  • focusser

    To quote Lavrov the liar, “if it walks like a pig, talks like a pig, it is a pig”.

  • Dagwood Bumstead

    The losses Moscow admits or which are revealed are probably a fraction of the real losses in both Syria and the Donbas. Today a Su-24 crashed in Syria, with both crew members killed:

    http://www.uawire.org/russian-su-24-military-aircraft-crashes-in-syria#

    When Moscow admits even high-ranking officers- generals and colonels- are killed in Syria, the losses among the lower ranks will be serious, whether official army or mercenaries as they are the ones in the line of fire.