Russian agents in Minsk pushing Lukashenka to crack down hard, Belarusian analysts say

Alyaksandr Lukashenka

 

2017/03/16 - 07:33 • Analysis & Opinion, Belarus, Politics

Russian agents in the Belarusian security services along with Russian agents in the blogosphere are calling on Alyaksandr Lukashenka not to make any concessions to the protesters but rather to crack down hard as he did in 2010, according to Minsk analysts.

Such an action would not only completely block any possibility that Lukashenka could achieve a further rapprochement with the West and thus force Minsk back into Moscow’s tight embrace but also spark the kind of clashes that the Russian government could use to justify armed intervention in Belarus.

Analysts at the Minsk Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Research have released a new study arguing that “the special services are misinforming [Lukashenka] by playing on his fears of ‘a Ukrainian trace’ in the protests” and thus blocking any concessions and pushing him toward a crackdown.

For the Center’s Crisis Watch report on this subject, see csfps.by; for a discussion of its content and other actions by pro-Moscow forces inside Belarus, see Dmitry Galko’s survey on the BelarusPartisan portal.

According to Galko, one can conclude on the basis of the center’s report that Lukashenka “is ready to make some wise steps and concessions in the existing situation to lower social tension. But there exists a certain force which is leading him in the opposite direction by suggesting the fake danger in the form of ‘a Ukrainian scenario.’”

Some of these people are located in the Belarusian force structures. Others are involved at the edges of the protests. But the fundamental message is the same as it was in December 2010 when pro-Moscow groups told Lukashenka that he had no choice but to crack down given when Moscow would do if he didn’t.

This message, the Center suggests and Galko confirms, is “direct disinformation” intended to push Lukashenka toward the abyss because a crackdown of the kind the pro-Moscow forces want would lead to one of several disasters ranging from violence inside the country to Russian intervention.

Avoiding those outcomes, Galko says, is in the interest not only of Lukashenka but also of the opposition because

“an attempt to repeat the scenario of December 2010 this time can grow into a Romanian scenario” and then to “hybrid aggression” by Russia of the kind it has been using in Ukraine’s Donbas. “This scenario is being prepared,” he says.

Galko makes an additional contribution by analyzing posts on the Tuneyadets.by social group. That is a pro-Moscow group consisting largely or exclusively of Russians from Russia that is pushing Moscow’s line at the expense of Belarus and adding to the pressures on Lukashenka.

But the far greater threat comes from Russian agents inside the Belarusian government, he and the center’s report suggest.

“If one considers that in the leadership of the Belarusian special services are certain overt or covert agents of the Kremlin, the situation is becoming extremely explosive.”

“It is possible,” Galko says, “that we are standing at the brink of attempts to carry out hybrid aggression against our country.” And he ends by concluding with the words of Maksim Filipovich, the opposition figure who was arrested in full view of the television audience: “Aleksandr Grigoryevich [Lukashenka] what are you creating?”


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Edited by: A. N.

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  • zorbatheturk

    Looks like Belarus is about to be invaded by giant bugs.

    • Fortranz

      Wish Angela Merkel and Trump would say something about this. Like how the EU and US will react to Russia [Putin] invading yet another East Europe country without any real justifications.

      • Dagwood Bumstead

        Merkel will do or say nothing whatsoever; don’t expect any action from her. She’s been batting for the dwarf ever since he invaded Georgia in 2008, doing her very best to prevent sanctions together with her henchmen Sarkozy and Hollande.

      • Eolone

        March 5, North Korea fires banned missiles into Japanese territorial waters. Trump sends out tweet that Obama wiretapped him, thus cutting off the need for a strong response to North Korea, especially given this is the second firing during his time in office. Trump has fooled the American people, but he has revealed himself to be weak to North Korea and Moscow.

        • Fortranz

          Can’t say I disagree, however, Trump is getting deeper into the hole on his election connections with Russia. I think we will hear something soon that will perhaps end Trump’s time in office. Just have to wait and see.

          • Quartermaster

            The Russian connection is a myth and the DimoKKKRats are telling their base that there will no evidence of any connection with Russia on the election. The Dims are going to have find another hobby horse to ride.

          • Fortranz

            The FBI is still investigating Quartermaster. Lets wait and see what they have to say when there done. Don’t be so sure that “The Russian connection is a myth” or that it’s just the Democrats taking partisan shots at Trump.

          • Quartermaster

            Comey claims the FBI is investigating. It would not pay to bet on the truth of that claim. It is very likely that the Flynn disclosure came from within the FBI and he is making no effort to find the truth on that either.

        • Eolone

          Time of launch according to South Korea was on Monday, 7:30 AM, local day and time. Korea is 13 hours ahead of Wash. DC. That would be Sunday, 6:30 PM in DC when the missiles were launched. That means the intelligence services gave Trump warning of the preparation for launch probably the day before, on Saturday.

    • Quartermaster

      Juan Rico and the rest of the Starship Troopers will drop in and dispatch the bugs.

  • Dirk Smith
  • MichaelA

    yet that same advice to yanukoych is what led to the ukrainian scenario
    have these idiots learned nothing?

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      They obviously believe that the people of Belarus won’t follow the Ukrainian example and I think they are right.

    • danram

      My thoughts exactly.

    • Andrew Chmil

      Russians are very stupid you know 😉

  • Tony

    If intervention leads to the Ukrainian scenario then moscow miscalculated as it would ensure a messy divorce and the intervention would bring russias strained finances closer to the financial abyss(and thus bring russia closer to disintegration).