“Moscow runs out of money and the central powers are made ever more powerless; The weakening of the central powers reveals the extraordinary diversity in the development and way of life of the regions; On this basis, some event occurs which interrupts the gradual nature of the process and leads to a qualitative leap toward the disintegration of the Russian Federation; The disintegration proceeds on the basis of two equal but mutually dependent processes: the rise of inter-regional conflicts, the goal of which is the subordination of the weak regions by the strong and the rise of inter-regional unions intended to stand up against their neighbors. These unions will be the basis of future independent states on the former territory of the Russian Federation, and their formation will be affected by the following factors: geographic propinquity, the presence of at least one region, ‘the economic locomotive,’ which will serve as the core of the unified area, a common religious faith, and ethnic commonality, although this last will be less important than other factors.” On the former territory of the Russian Federation will gradually be formed new states, including several ‘ethnically Russian’ ones.”Zhordan devotes most of his essay to discussing the various possible modalities of this process. Many of his specific ideas will strike Russians and others as fantastic. But he has provided a real service by outlining how the Russian Federation could disintegrate and in a very different but nonetheless fateful way than the demise of the USSR.
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