World oil prices, Russian production both predicted to fall over the next 25 years

A Gazprom oil production platform in the Arctic. Severe climatic conditions and remoteness drive up the cost of Russian oil. (Image: Gazprom)

A Gazprom oil production platform in the Arctic. Severe climatic conditions and remoteness drive up the cost of Russian oil. (Image: Gazprom) 

2016/11/18 • Analysis & Opinion, Russia

Just how disastrous Vladimir Putin’s decision to rely on the export of oil rather than to modernize and diversify the Russian economy is going to become ever more obvious in the coming years given that world prices of oil may fall to as low as ten US dollars a barrel and Russia’s production of oil to fall by almost 30 percent over the next 25 years.

Those predictions are offered by the new annual report of the International Energy Agency, and they point to a disaster for Russia even if oil prices might occasionally spike upward from where they are now unless Moscow takes step to end Russia’s dependence on oil exports.

The reason the IEA says oil prices will fall is rooted in lower production costs brought about by the fracking revolution. Demand in fact will grow by 12.5 percent by 2040 to 103.5 million barrels a day, Nezavisimaya Gazeta journalist Olga Solovyeva says in reporting on the findings of the agency.

“For Russia, the IAE predictions are hard to call optimistic. Russian oil production is slated to fall by 30 percent to 8.5 million barrels a day from its current rate of 10.9 million.”

While Russia’s oil companies may do all right, the report continues, the Russian government is going to be constricted by a decline in revenue from the sale of oil abroad.

The situation may become even more dire as the world enters a period of extreme volatility in oil prices because those countries in the West that are using fracking can adjust their production levels at lower losses than those like Russia that use this technology for a much smaller share of their production.

There are three other trends which are likely to hurt Russian income from the sale of oil in the short term, according to Azret Guliyev, an official of the Solid Company.

First, “the price of oil today does not depend [in this first instance] on the real size of demand and supply. It is formed by financial market trades in derivative instruments.”

Second, he points out, “Trump’s election as president of the US almost certainly will lead to the strengthening of the dollar and to an increase in key financial rates. As a result, the price of a barrel of oil in dollars will be less than today.” Moreover, increased US production as a result of his policies and the fracking revolution will push prices down as well.

And third, there is likely to be a slowing of economic growth in China and hence in overall demand. Thus, “the price of a barrel of oil will more likely fall than rise” and could even decline to less than ten US dollars a barrel, a fifth of what it is now.

Another Russian analyst, Georgy Vashchenko of the Freedom Finance Company, points to an additional reason why Russia faces ever more problems in this sector: there are places in the US where the extraction of oil is profitable even at a price of 30 US dollars a barrel. There are far fewer such places in Russia.

And today, there is an even more compelling reason to think that time is not on the side of Putin’s Russia. American oil companies have announced the discovery of a massive new oil field in Texas. Not surprisingly, Russian officials have done their part to cast doubt on these reports.


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Edited by: A. N.

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  • Dagwood Bumstead

    What’s a dwarf to do, with such potentially grim prospects? Stop his insane wars in Syria and the Donbas? Unlikely. Stop the pilfering of the Dwarfstanian State Treasury by his cronies and himself? Equally unlikely. Ditto for cutting the budgets for the Armed Forces and Security Services. Squeeze Proffessor Viktor Yanukovich, Azarov and Co like lemons for all they’re worth until the pips squeak? Possibly, but this won’t do much more than temporarily plug a few gaps. Cut the budgets for education, health care, infrastructure etc? Definitely a possibility, ditto for the subsidies for Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, the Crimea and the so-called LNR and DNR. I wonder where Aksyonov, Zakharcheno, Plotnitsky and Co will get their next meals from when the stream of rubbles becomes a trickle- not to mention that the rubble will be worth even less than it is now (tee hee).

    Looks like Medvedev will be making a lot more trips all over the country to tell the Dwarfstanians “There’s just no money. Hang on in there. All the best.”

  • zorbatheturk

    Another nail in Vladolf’s coffin!

  • Alex George

    “While Russia’s oil companies may do all right, the report continues, the Russian government is going to be constricted by a decline in revenue from the sale of oil abroad.”

    The Kremlin set up its arrangements with its State Owned Enterprises so that it creamed the profit off the top of oil sales. But this cuts both ways – when the oil price dropped, the Russian government took far more of a hit than SOE’s like Gazprom did. Putin’s team want to change the arrangements, but are encountering a lot of resistance .

    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Those state-owned enterprises will simply have to hand over more to the State Treasury to plug all the holes in the State budget. This in turn will mean less money for exploration, maintenance (no more spare parts), drilling new wells etc etc. Inevitably production will decline, meaning less oil and gas to sell, less income etc etc. A vicious downward spiral of the dwarf’s own making.