
Grigoryants points out that he has been warning since the 1990s that the KGB would be coming to power. “Everyone laughed and said that there isn’t any KGB anymore. People abroad also laughed. And now it seems to them that the main thing is to get rid of Putin” and all will be well. But getting rid of any particular leader is not enough as past experience shows, Grigoryants continues. “Even after Putin Russia will remain a danger for Europe and the entire world if we do not learn the lessons of the past” and if Russians and others don’t recognize that some of those saying the right things now bear responsibility for what is happening now. To be sure, he says, “Nemtsov has written a remarkable and correct report” about Ukraine, “but if he along with his company had not helped bring Putin and the KGB to power, today there would not have been a war.” However, “15 years ago, Nemtsov, Chubais, Khakamada, Volodin, Berezovsky and Kasyanov were sincerely convinced that a strong [central] power would protect them and they would be able to keep it under control.” If Putin is overthrown, something similar could happen unless lessons are learned and fundamental changes are made, Grigoryants argues. “After Putin, we could again get someone who will convincingly speak about democracy, but the entire system inside will remain just what it was. Putin is far from alone and from from being the dictator many imagine: he is a link of a single KGB chain.”As the great French scholar of Russia, Alan Besancon, once remarked, “Russia uses every breathing space for the creating of a new stage of dictatorship and aggression.”
That chain goes way back, he continues. “Anatoly Sobchak was Kryuchkov’s man and Kryuchkov was the head of the KGB then. If the putsch had succeeded, then Sobchak would have become president of Russia, installed by Kryuchkov in place of Gorbachev. And behind Sobchak would have been standing Putin.” Given Putin’s KGB qualities, no one can trust him, and no world leader does, Grigoryants says. They talk to him not as a partner but because they are “forced to speak with the Kremlin” in the hopes that “a small war in Europe will not grow over into a larger one,” something Putin is quite prepared to launch in order to maintain his “image as a victor.” Given how dangerous Putin’s course is, it is not unthinkable that someone in his entourage will “help Putin leave this life,” as it appears may have happened with Andropov too, Grigoryants says. Indeed, it is more likely because in contrast to his Soviet predecessors, Putin is defending not just his power but his life. A revolution, on the other hand, is currently “impossible” in Russia. Its people are “exhausted and befuddled,” and consequently, Putin doesn’t need to fear that as much as he needs to fear a palace coup. But if one happens, that is not likely to change the reality of Russian power even if it changes its image for a time. Grigoryants says that in the future, Russia could easily break up and be left within borders of medieval Muscovy; but he argues that this won’t be the result of protests but rather the actions of local elites who will cease to be loyal to Moscow as soon as Moscow ceases to provide them with the assistance they need.Putin is far from alone and from from being the dictator many imagine: he is a link of a single KGB chain.
As for Ukraine, the Russian dissident says, it faces a difficult fight with Russia, but there is reason for optimism because Ukraine has made the choice to become a European country, something Russia has not yet done. And consequently, Ukraine will become one far sooner than Russia: indeed, in the best case, it will show Russia the way.