Moscow commentator: Putin has no interest in peace in Ukraine now or ever

Igor Eidman

Igor Eidman 

2015/02/15 • Analysis & Opinion, Russia

Vladimir Putin may organize short-lived ceasefires for various reasons, few of which have anything to do with Ukraine, but with regard to that country, Igor Eidman points out, the Kremlin leader has no interest in achieving peace there on any terms, a tragic reality no one must delude themselves into believing is not the case.

Putin’s participation in the Minsk talks was nothing more or less than a continuation of his strategy of blackmail against Ukraine and the West, the Moscow commentator says, and it is clear that he has no intention of living according to the provisions of that agreement or any other.

What he did at Minsk as he has done so often with success in the past is to give “the imitation of a step backwards” for which he will be rewarded by the West as someone with whom it can do business while proceeding to take two more steps “forward along the path of aggression.”

As a result of Minsk, Putin got two things he wanted – a delay in any imposition of more serious sanctions and an end to talk in Western capitals about arming Ukraine. But “Putin of course wants more” including that Ukraine should “pay for aggression against itself,” that oil prices should go up, and that he will get “a breathing space” to prepare for new aggression.

One extremely sad result of Minsk and a demonstration of what Putin is about concerns Nadiya Savchenko. Her position has “radically deteriorated” after what happened in the Belarusian capital. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said she would be released with other prisoners and then Putin’s press secretary said that she wouldn’t be.

This pattern reflects Putin’s desire to discredit Poroshenko by showing him to be incapable of defending his own, Eidman says. The only thing that could help the jailed Ukrainian flier now, would be “an energetic ultimatum for her liberation” from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Putin would have to take her words into consideration.

On February 13, human rights defenders from the Open Dialogue Foundation published the “Savchenko List,” similar to the Magnitsky List named after the Russian anti-corruption lawyer illegally imprisoned, mistreated and killed in a Russian prison. They urged the imposition of personal sanctions against persons responsible for the kidnapping, arrest and imprisonment of Ukraine’s PACE delegate, people’s deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Ukrainian citizen Nadiya Savchenko, as well as for other gross violations of human rights in the Russian Federation. Read more…

Putin’s primary goal in Minsk this time around, the Moscow commentator continues, was not that by rather “the legitimation of the bandits” as an independent part of the negotiating process. Merkel fell for that when she suggested that Putin had put pressure on them, something she wouldn’t have said if she saw him as a crime boss speaking to his underlings as they are.

When Poroshenko first walked out and said there would be no agreement, the ruble fell. When he returned, the ruble went up, an indication that “the economic weakness of Russia forces Putin to maneuver, to do everything in order to stabilize the economic situation in Russia.”

In allowing for the legitimation of these entities as part of the negotiating process, the Germans and the French in fact have allowed Russia to maintain its false claim that it isn’t entirely responsible for their actions. But everyone should take note of the fact that “not one organization” In the Donbas “demanded independence before the start of Russian aggression.”

The pro-Moscow militants will not disarm except possibly in limited contexts for show, Eidman says. “They may not even reverse their formal decision on independence, although this would be complete schizophrenia – at one and the same time to declare oneself part of Ukraine and to declare one’s independence.”

Despite his gains at Minsk, Putin was anything but a free actor. When Poroshenko first walked out and said there would be no agreement, the ruble fell. When he returned, the ruble went up, an indication that “the economic weakness of Russia forces Putin to maneuver, to do everything in order to stabilize the economic situation in Russia.”

Unless the West is bamboozled into lifting the sanctions, the situation inside Russia could reach such a boiling point, and that in turn could lead to the salvation of Ukraine in the first instance, of Russia’s other neighbors as well, and ultimately of Russia itself.

But once he is able to do that, he will “hit Ukraine with redoubled force” not to seize the Donbas which he doesn’t need but to use it as a “gangrenous” limb to infect all of Ukraine with its fever by “provoking military clashes and destabilizing the situation in the country. This will be a slow-acting bomb,” Eidman concludes.

What Putin wants in Ukraine and how he is acting there is an exact copy of what Hitler did in Czechoslovakia, Eidman says. Putin took Crimea as Hitler took the Sudetenland. Then, Putin provoked a split in Ukraine just as Hitler did between the Czechs and the Slovaks. And Putin hopes to achieve complete control of Ukraine just as Hitler did of Bohemia and Moravia.

Ukraine and its friends must be prepared to fight on, but they must also hope for the rise of a revolutionary situation in Russia, one in which “those on top will not be able to run things in the old way, and those below will not want to live as they have before.” That could happen in Russia if sanctions and the economic crisis there both deepen.

At some point, the Moscow commentator suggests, unless the West is bamboozled into lifting the sanctions, the situation inside Russia could reach such a boiling point, and that in turn could lead to the salvation of Ukraine in the first instance, of Russia’s other neighbors as well, and ultimately of Russia itself.

Edited by: A. N.

Tags: , , , ,

  • Mike Kostelny

    Yes, Putin studied German as a second language and Hitler as his exemplar, no doubt! For it was Hitler who said (prior to WW II) that he did not wish war (that ‘war was for idiots’!) but that he simply wanted PEACE–but Peace on his terms, of course! No surprise here?!

    Putin states the same course of logic: All he wants is Peace (he even offered his own ‘PEACE Plan’ recently) to resolve the Donbas conflict. Yet Putin denies that his ‘little green men’ are in East Ukraine (just as he initially denied they were in the Ukrainian Crimea). No surprise here?!

    What the West still does not seem to grasp, nor to believe, nor to even acknowledge is that Putin is the Father of Lies (and that he has no intention ever to kow-tow to the Western sense of ‘rule of law’) for his sole agenda is the death and destruction of Ukrainians in Ukraine (as he is currently achieving in the newly occupied ‘Crimean’ Peninsula). No surprise here?!

    It is now the 16th February 2015 (1 full day after Russia agreed to a complete ceasefire!) and Russian mercenaries have now attacked peaceful Ukrainian positions 60 times during this first day of complete cease-fire! No surprise here?!

    The only sensible remaining option is for President Poroshenko to do as he has threatened to do for weeks now and that is: To declare martial law in Ukraine, in order to throw back these Russian terrorists to Rostov-on-Don, into Putin’s lap! Now, that would be a surprise indeed!

  • Lord Lucan

    More sanctions ….. NOW

  • wooly bully

    Thank you for this profound and excellent view of the situation. I am sure Putin is thinking “I am really getting away with this!”. It’s like feeding a bear to keep it full and lazy, and one day the food runs out.

  • DejaVu

    Of course and the reality is that Putin has a greater agenda and plans for Europe. The reality is that Russia has at the most 12-18 months and to distract and detract from their internal problems they will go to war which will likely escalate into a nuclear conflict. Europe has bought a small breather for this winter which is going to go hot soon.

  • Dey Jose

    Wake up people~ the bear’s loose

    • DejaVu

      A bear with nuclear warheads and missiles including the Topol-M and the RS-24.

  • Doreen Moisey

    Bring on the sanctions!!!!!

  • Bradley James

    Putin Nuken make the day and nuke the liars , deceivers and thieves away = ZioNazi , Bolshevik , Talmudic world bankers and NATO.
    Truth is Putin is the cleanest dirty shirt in world leaders.. And just declared Russia GMO free while American and European soil is toxic and worn out thanks to Monsatan and the like. 80% of American shoppers looking for organic non GMO = MCD and MON losing money. Rich Russian farmland will produce clean food . A win win for all. .

    • Carl65

      Gee. Will Russian farmland be so clean after your hero has nuked NATO, all the world’s bankers, Bolsheviks and genetically-modified crops? Disturbing ideas from a Kremlin troll.