ISW: Russia’s rate of advance “does not indicate that Russian forces will imminently seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast”
The Kremlin’s belief in inevitable victory ignores battlefield realities where major cities remain out of reach.
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Ukrainian defenses
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ISW: Russia overstates gains to pressure Kyiv and West to hand over Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces have not yet faced heavily fortified cities like Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, ISW notes.
Russia seeks entire Donbas in exchange for ceasefire promises, Zelenskyy says it would take them four years to occupy it
Zelenskyy stressed that Russian forces have only managed to seize about one-third of Donetsk Oblast since the full-scale invasion began.
ISW: Russian advance near Donetsk’s Pokrovsk slows as focus may shift to Kostiantynivka in 2025
The slowdown may be due to the deterioration of frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area, per ISW.
ISW: Russia advances in western Donetsk Oblast; gains remain tactical, lack immediate operational significance
The gains "may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes," ISW says.
Frontline report: Ukrainian forces repel Russian frontal attacks in Vuhledar but face encirclement risk
Russian forces intensify their assault on Vuhledar, threatening Ukrainian supply routes. While Ukrainian troops repelled frontal attacks, they may withdraw to Novoukrainka if Russian pressure continues. The upcoming rainy season could slow further Russian advances.