Intelligence assessments indicate that Russian plans include drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament on 17 September. He said Russia could seek to make such attacks appear accidental in order to weaken NATO's resolve.
The warning comes after an escalating pattern of drone incidents and suspected sabotage in Poland, Lithuania and Germany, as European governments face growing security risks linked to Russia's war against Ukraine.
Tusk cites NATO, US and Ukrainian intelligence
Tusk said he was relying on intelligence from NATO, Ukraine, and the United States. He described late autumn and winter as the most critical phase of the war so far and warned of escalating attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
"There is a real risk that the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank may be entered by drones or other types of missiles," Tusk said.
He said the purpose could be to show that Article 5 "exists only in theory" and to weaken NATO's willingness to respond.
Jet-powered drones near the Polish border
The 17 September attack struck near Yahodyn, close to the Dorohusk border crossing. Tusk said Russia had used jet-powered drones that travel at higher speeds and altitudes, making them harder to intercept.
A pattern of incidents near NATO territory
The warning follows several incidents near NATO's eastern border. On 13 September, a drone struck a passenger train at Yahodyn, near the Ukraine-Poland border. Ukraine's state railway company said it was "highly probable" that the Russian drone's intended target was a diplomatic train that had carried former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt. Former CIA Director David Petraeus was on a separate train that remained at the station. No one was injured.
On 15 September, Italian NATO jets shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace after it apparently entered from Belarus. Lithuanian authorities said the wreckage indicated it had likely been carrying explosives. Poland also recovered a Gerbera-type drone carrying a live warhead from the Baltic coast near Rusinowo.
Germany on 1 September blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack involving explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport on 4–5 August, adding another NATO country to the series of incidents.
From warning to coalition
Tusk visited Ukraine on 18 September for the inaugural Carpathian Eight summit. Zelenskyy said Ukraine and its European partners were building an anti-ballistic coalition, while Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski said Warsaw was preparing its largest military aid package for Ukraine, potentially including Patriot missiles.
Russia's Foreign Ministry rejected Tusk's accusations as "contrived" and "far-fetched".
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